Portfolio Update – September 2026

General news

• On 01/09/2026, Oil’s renewed rise following escalating Iran tensions is pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher and driving mortgage rates up. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.87%, its highest since June 2025, increasing borrowing costs for homebuyers. Higher rates are also reducing mortgage affordability, while rising home prices and limited housing supply add further pressure to the market.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the Trump administration’s bond-market intervention, arguing that U.S. Treasurys have outperformed other global bond markets since Trump took office. He rejected criticism from investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who warned that debt buybacks only delay deeper fiscal problems. Bessent said his priority is keeping markets focused on economic fundamentals rather than allowing investors to dictate policy, while noting that Treasury’s expanded buyback program could exceed $4 billion.
• On 02/09/2026, The U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh attacks Tuesday, escalating the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions, while Tehran launched missiles and drones against U.S. interests across the region. The escalation threatens to prolong the war, disrupt shipping and energy supplies, and increase pressure on the Trump administration as the November midterm elections approach.
• Government bond yields climbed sharply across major markets Tuesday as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy prices higher and revived inflation concerns. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 20-month high near 4.79%, while Japan’s 10-year yield reached 3% for the first time since 1996 and U.K. 10-year yields hit their highest level since 2008. German and French yields also moved higher, reflecting broader concerns that rising energy costs could keep inflation elevated and borrowing costs higher for longer.
• On 03/09/2026, Global government bonds continued to sell off Wednesday, pushing yields to multi-year highs as investors grew increasingly concerned about inflation, rising debt burdens and potential interest-rate hikes. Germany’s 10-year yield reached 3.38%, its highest since 2011, while U.S. Treasury yields climbed to 4.81% and U.K. 10-year gilt yields hit 5.25%, both before easing slightly. Renewed Middle East conflict and higher oil prices have intensified inflation fears, while expectations of rate hikes from the Fed, Bank of Japan and ECB have further pressured bonds. Equity markets have also shifted into risk-off mode, with major U.S., European and Asian indexes declining amid rising borrowing and risk costs.
• The Dutch central bank has moved about 86 tons of gold from New York and Ottawa to London to improve its ability to access and trade the reserves during a crisis, citing rising geopolitical uncertainty. The transfer, completed between March and August, places more of DNB’s holdings with the Bank of England, where gold meets international trading standards. The move comes as gold prices have surged nearly 25% over the past year amid heightened U.S.-Iran tensions, and follows France’s relocation of 129 tons of gold from the New York Federal Reserve. After the transfer, London holds 32.1% of DNB’s gold, while 30.8% is in the Netherlands and 18.5% each remains in New York and Ottawa
• On 05/09/2026, The U.S. labor market rebounded strongly in August, adding 162,000 jobs—far above economists’ expectations of 53,000—while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. The stronger-than-expected report pushed Treasury yields higher and increased expectations of a potential Fed rate hike, though next week’s inflation data will likely determine the central bank’s decision. Job gains were broad-based, led by restaurants and bars, government education and manufacturing, while wage growth remained moderate at 3.1% annually. The data suggests the labor market remains resilient despite earlier signs of a summer slowdown.
• President Donald Trump intensified his pressure on the Federal Reserve Friday, threatening to halt trade with countries that run trade surpluses with the U.S. unless the Fed cuts interest rates. Trump argued that the U.S., as a strong borrower, should have the world’s lowest rates, even calling for rates as low as 0.5% to 1%, despite economists noting that trade deficits are not inherently harmful and that surplus countries often reinvest their U.S. dollar earnings in Treasury securities. His comments renewed pressure on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who recently indicated that further rate hikes could be considered to bring inflation back toward the Fed’s 2% target.
• On 07/09/2026, OPEC+ has left its October oil production policy unchanged as the group faces limited ability to influence the physical oil market amid ongoing disruptions to exports through the Strait of Hormuz. While the alliance had been gradually reversing earlier production cuts, members still produce below their official targets, and attention is now shifting toward setting new production baselines and quotas for 2027. With oil prices rising sharply amid renewed U.S.-Iran fighting, OPEC+ may pause further output increases in the fourth quarter, with the next meeting scheduled for Oct. 4.
• On 08/09/2026, President Donald Trump said Canadian aircraft manufacturer Bombardier must build its products in the U.S. if it wants to continue selling in the American market, escalating tensions amid the ongoing U.S.-Canada trade dispute. The comments came as Canada prepared to impose roughly $20 billion in retaliatory tariffs on more than 700 U.S. goods, following Trump’s 50% tariffs on various Canadian products. The latest dispute has also stalled broader trade negotiations, with both sides blaming the other for the breakdown.
• On 09/09/2026, Oil prices climbed Wednesday as intensifying U.S.-Iran tensions raised fears of further disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. WTI futures rose 1.75% to $94.66 a barrel, while Brent gained 1.55% to $99.44. The U.S. military’s destruction of five Iranian crude tankers has increased concerns over shipping attacks, with Goldman Sachs warning that Brent could potentially surge above $120 if Persian Gulf exports fail to recover in the coming months. While the bank’s base case expects exports to gradually resume through alternative routes and added pipeline capacity, the risk of a prolonged supply disruption is growing.
• On 10/09/2026, Oil prices edged lower Thursday, but ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions kept Brent crude above $100 a barrel as investors remained concerned about potential disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. Brent fell 0.71% to $100.50, while WTI declined 0.37% to $96.68. Analysts warned that further escalation, reduced shipping volumes or attacks on energy infrastructure could tighten the physical oil market and push prices higher, with Goldman Sachs saying Brent could potentially exceed $120 if the conflict continues to disrupt exports.
• On 11/09/2026, U.S. wholesale prices rose 0.4% in August, matching expectations, while annual producer inflation accelerated to 5.4%, remaining well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Energy and goods prices drove much of the increase, with energy costs jumping 4.2% and diesel prices surging 24.1%, while core PPI rose a more modest 0.2%. The stronger inflation reading pushed Treasury yields higher and increased market expectations for a quarter-point Fed rate hike next week, with traders pricing roughly 66% odds. Attention now turns to Friday’s CPI report, which could further influence the Fed’s upcoming decision.
• The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, as expected, as persistent inflation and higher energy costs continue to pressure the euro zone. ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that the U.S.-Iran conflict and other geopolitical tensions could keep inflation above the ECB’s 2% target while weighing on economic growth, leaving the outlook for further rate hikes highly uncertain. With euro zone inflation reaching 3.3% in August and energy inflation surging to 14.3%, policymakers signaled that additional tightening remains possible, with markets divided over whether rates will ultimately peak at 2.75% or as high as 3%.
• On 12/09/2026, U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, bringing annual inflation to 3.4%, while core CPI increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annually, with the monthly core reading slightly above expectations. The report has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points next week, with futures markets now pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a hike. Energy prices were a major driver, with gasoline up 3.9% and the broader energy index rising 2.1% amid Middle East tensions, while shelter and transportation costs also increased. The Fed’s benchmark rate has remained at 3.5%-3.75% throughout 2026, but persistent inflation and renewed energy-price pressures are increasing calls for further tightening.
• Saudi Arabia has temporarily shut its 7 million-barrel-per-day East-West oil pipeline after drone attacks launched from Iraq caused fires and damage near Riyadh and Medina, with several people injured. The pipeline is a critical alternative route for exporting crude to the Red Sea while fighting around the Strait of Hormuz threatens Persian Gulf shipments, making the shutdown a fresh risk to global oil supplies. Riyadh said it would hold off on retaliation to give Iraq time to prevent further attacks, while Iran-aligned groups including the Houthis have also intensified strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure. Oil prices ended the week more than 8% higher after breaking above $100 a barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions.
• On 14/09/2026, Oil prices jumped Sunday after Saudi Arabia shut its 7 million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline following drone attacks that damaged the key route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. WTI rose 2.8% to $102.87 a barrel, while Brent gained 3.1% to $107.87, as uncertainty over the pipeline’s repair timeline and continued tanker attacks raised concerns about further supply disruptions. A planned regional meeting between Iran and Gulf Arab states was also postponed, while escalating Houthi activity around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait added to risks for global oil flows.
• On 15/09/2026, Oil prices jumped Sunday after Saudi Arabia shut its 7 million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline following drone attacks that damaged the key route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. WTI rose 2.8% to $102.87 a barrel, while Brent gained 3.1% to $107.87, as uncertainty over the pipeline’s repair timeline and continued tanker attacks raised concerns about further supply disruptions. A planned regional meeting between Iran and Gulf Arab states was also postponed, while escalating Houthi activity around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait added to risks for global oil flows.
• On 16/09/2026, The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.041% on Tuesday, its highest level since July 2007, as surging oil prices from the Iran conflict fueled inflation concerns and markets increasingly expected a Fed rate hike. The 30-year yield also reached a 2007 high of 5.401%, while the 2-year yield hit its highest level since July 2024. With markets pricing in more than a 94% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, analysts warned that sustained oil prices above $100 could further lift inflation expectations and borrowing costs, with the correlation between WTI crude and the 10-year yield reaching 0.96.
• On 17/09/2026, The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on Friday, according to a CNBC survey, potentially accelerating its tightening cycle amid higher inflation and wages. About 89% of surveyed economists expect a hike, citing July inflation of 1.9%, real wage growth of 2.4% and pressure from the U.S. government for Japan to maintain monetary tightening. While some analysts expect a larger 50-basis-point move or no change, most anticipate a 25-basis-point increase, with the yen expected by around 61% of respondents to trade between 155 and 160 over the next month.
• The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday to a 3.75%-4% target range, marking its first hike since July 2023 as officials responded to persistently high inflation and rising oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict. The FOMC voted unanimously, with 16 of 18 participating officials projecting at least one additional hike this year, while the Fed lifted its 2026 inflation forecasts to 3.7% headline and 3.4% core and does not expect inflation to return to its 2% target until 2029. The decision came as the labor market remained relatively strong, with unemployment projected at 4.1%, but concerns grew that prolonged energy costs could push inflation expectations higher and spread through the broader economy.
• On 19/09/2026, Oil prices fell for a third straight session Friday, with WTI down 1.6% to $100.30 and Brent 0.9% lower at $103.87, leaving U.S. crude roughly flat for the week and Brent down nearly 1%. Prices have risen more than 5% since drone attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut its East-West pipeline, but stronger-than-expected Middle East oil flows have eased concerns about an immediate supply shortage. JPMorgan estimates regional flows at around 17 million barrels per day, though analysts warn the workaround may be difficult to sustain and that further attacks or a prolonged pipeline outage could lead to larger disruptions.
• On 21/09/2026, France’s wine industry is facing another difficult harvest after record summer heat and severe drought, with the agriculture ministry warning that 2026 production could fall to its lowest level in 70 years. Burgundy producers reported high quality but roughly half the usual harvest, while traditionally cooler regions such as the Loire Valley and Champagne were hit particularly hard; southern areas including Bordeaux and Languedoc-Roussillon fared better. The worsening conditions are also fueling debate over France’s strict wine regulations, as some producers argue that restrictions on irrigation, grape varieties and vineyard practices make it harder to adapt to climate change.
• On 24/09/2026, President Donald Trump’s upcoming meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping highlight a shift in the U.S.-China relationship, as Washington’s efforts to pressure Beijing through tariffs, technology restrictions and allied cooperation face growing challenges. China has expanded trade ties and built leverage through areas such as rare earths, while U.S. disputes with traditional allies over tariffs, defense spending and foreign policy have made some countries more reluctant to closely align with Washington. Analysts say China is using this opening to strengthen relationships and give countries more room to balance between the world’s two largest economies, with India’s closer economic and diplomatic engagement with Beijing serving as one example.
• U.S. Treasury yields surged Wednesday, with the 10-year yield jumping more than 13 basis points to 5.104%, its highest level since July 2007, as stronger-than-expected economic data, hawkish Fed comments, weak demand at a five-year Treasury auction and rising oil prices fueled expectations of further rate hikes. The 2-year yield climbed above 4.88%, while the 30-year yield reached 5.398%, both at multi-year highs. Markets raised the probability of another 25-basis-point Fed hike in October to 66.4%, as persistent oil-driven inflation added to pressure on the central bank to keep tightening policy.
• On 26/09/2026, U.S. Treasury yields surged Wednesday, with the 10-year yield jumping more than 13 basis points to 5.104%, its highest level since July 2007, as stronger-than-expected economic data, hawkish Fed comments, weak demand at a five-year Treasury auction and rising oil prices fueled expectations of further rate hikes. The 2-year yield climbed above 4.88%, while the 30-year yield reached 5.398%, both at multi-year highs. Markets raised the probability of another 25-basis-point Fed hike in October to 66.4%, as persistent oil-driven inflation added to pressure on the central bank to keep tightening policy.
• On 29/09/2026, Crude oil prices retreated from session highs Monday after Saudi Arabia reportedly restored flows through its East-West pipeline to about 3.5 million barrels per day following repairs, with Brent settling at $105.28 and WTI at $92.60. Exports have also resumed from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, easing concerns over supply disruptions after the pipeline was damaged in a drone strike earlier this month. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran conflict remains high as President Donald Trump indicated openness to sanctions relief and releasing frozen Iranian funds if Tehran makes progress toward a nuclear deal, while rejecting Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. Energy markets remain concerned that U.S.-Iran hostilities could resume after the November midterm elections, potentially putting further pressure on already-tight global oil inventories.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60%, unanimously tightening policy as inflation remains elevated and several upside risks have materialised. The RBA cited higher global energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict, rising technology costs driven by AI demand, domestic capacity pressures and stronger-than-expected recent inflation, while noting that economic growth and consumer spending are slowing gradually. The Board said further tightening may be required to ensure inflation does not become entrenched, although it will continue assessing incoming data and risks, including weaker housing activity, productivity constraints and potential further energy-supply disruptions.
• On 30/09/2026, U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday evening after another session of losses driven by surging Treasury yields, with Dow and S&P 500 futures up 0.16% and Nasdaq-100 futures gaining 0.26%. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5.6%, its highest since 2002, while the 10-year yield approached 5.3%, weighing on major U.S. indexes despite falling oil prices. Sentiment improved somewhat after New York Fed President John Williams said there was no need for urgency ahead of the October meeting, pushing market-implied odds of a quarter-point Fed hike down to 49% from 71%. Investors now await the August PCE inflation report, with economists expecting a 0.3% monthly increase and 3.7% annual rate.
• Australia’s annual headline inflation accelerated to 4% in August from 3.5% in July, while trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s preferred underlying measure, held at 3.6% for a third consecutive month. Housing was the largest contributor, with new dwelling costs rising 5.4% over the year, while transport inflation reached 5.6% as automotive fuel prices jumped 14.8% in August due to higher global oil prices and the removal of remaining fuel excise relief. The stronger inflation data came a day after the RBA raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6%, its highest level in 15 years, to contain persistent price pressures.