Portfolio Update – August 2026

General news

• On 01/08/2026, Three Federal Reserve officials who dissented from this week’s decision to hold interest rates steady said they support raising rates now to prevent inflation from becoming more entrenched. Beth Hammack and Neel Kashkari argued that gradual rate hikes today could avoid more aggressive tightening later, while Lorie Logan warned current policy is not restrictive enough to curb inflation. Although the Fed kept rates unchanged, the dissent highlights growing concern that persistent inflation—driven by energy costs, tariffs, and strong demand—may require tighter monetary policy in the coming months.
• On 04/08/2026, Oil prices fell sharply after President Donald Trump said he canceled a planned military strike on Iran, citing signs of a potential diplomatic breakthrough. WTI crude dropped about 5% to $80.34 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 4.7% to $83.77. Trump said the U.S. and Iran were discussing a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address Iran’s nuclear program, although Tehran denied direct talks with Washington, saying its discussions were limited to shipping routes with Oman.
• On 05/08/2026, The U.S. military said the southern shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz remains open and has safely supported the passage of more than 1,000 commercial vessels, despite tensions with Iran. Oil prices fell after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is close to an agreement with Iran to reopen the strait, with reports indicating Oman and Pakistan are mediating indirect negotiations. Meanwhile, U.S. officials rejected reports of missile shortages, insisting the military has sufficient munitions and is rapidly expanding production.
• On 06/08/2026, The Trump administration said it has refunded about $100 billion—roughly 60% of the $166 billion collected under tariffs imposed through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled those tariffs were unlawful. The refunds follow a court order requiring repayment to importers, although the administration is simultaneously pursuing new tariffs under different legal authorities. More than 252,000 refund claims covering 25 million import entries have been processed so far, with additional refunds still pending.
• Iran denied holding direct negotiations with the U.S., saying discussions over the Strait of Hormuz are taking place with Oman, despite President Donald Trump signaling that a deal was imminent. Iranian officials said a joint Iran-Oman statement on reopening the strait is in its final drafting stage, while U.S. officials remain optimistic about an agreement. Meanwhile, the U.S. military said the southern shipping route through Hormuz remains open, even as reports emerged of explosions near tankers off Yemen and Oman, highlighting ongoing regional tensions.
• On 08/08/2026, The U.S. labor market weakened sharply in July, with nonfarm payrolls falling 23,000 versus expectations for an 83,000 gain, while earlier months were also revised lower. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, but mainly because labor force participation fell to 61.4%, its lowest in more than five years. Wage growth also slowed, with annual earnings growth easing to 3.2%. The weak report reduced expectations for a September Fed rate hike, sending Treasury yields lower and stock futures higher as investors reassessed the balance between inflation and growing labor-market risks.
• Iran has demanded major concessions from the U.S. before reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including an end to the naval blockade and sanctions, withdrawal of U.S. forces, war reparations and the release of frozen Iranian assets. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman are negotiating transit routes, but no broader U.S.-Iran deal has been reached. Shipping through the strait remains disrupted after an ADNOC-linked tanker was targeted, while Iran’s draft plan could restrict access for U.S. and Israeli vessels. Oil prices rose about 1% Friday, although they still fell more than 7% for the week, as uncertainty over the strait continues to threaten global energy supplies.
• On 10/08/2026, U.S. Treasury yields edged lower Monday as investors focused on upcoming economic data, particularly July’s core inflation report. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report reduced expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike, with markets now pricing a 44% chance of a September hike, down from 67% a week earlier. Investors will closely watch Wednesday’s core CPI, followed by producer prices and jobless claims Thursday and retail sales and consumer sentiment Friday, which could influence the Fed’s next rate decision.
• On 11/08/2026, President Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy has cleared mines from the Strait of Hormuz and now has full control of the waterway, but Iran says it will not reopen the strait unless Washington lifts its naval blockade and sanctions, withdraws U.S. forces, releases frozen assets and agrees to reparations. Trump has instead suggested Iran should compensate the U.S. for deaths linked to past attacks, adding another obstacle to negotiations. The standoff continues to disrupt tanker traffic and keep energy markets on edge, with Brent and WTI crude both rising about 5% Monday to roughly $87.72 and $82.13 a barrel, respectively.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in a unanimous decision, despite underlying inflation remaining elevated. New forecasts show inflation is expected to follow a lower and steadier path than previously projected, reaching the 2.5% midpoint of the RBA’s target by early 2028. The outlook suggests the RBA may now be finished with rate hikes, although the next decision will depend on inflation and economic data, with the next meeting scheduled for late September.
• KPMG has withdrawn a report after the Financial Times found multiple false or misleading claims about AI use at UBS, NHS Greater Manchester, Swiss Federal Railways and Transport for London. Research group GPTZero identified passages that appeared to be AI hallucinations, with several organizations confirming the claims were inaccurate. KPMG said it is reviewing how the report was produced, highlighting growing concerns over the use of generative AI in professional research and consulting.
• On 13/08/2026, U.S. inflation remained moderate in July, with headline CPI rising 0.1% month over month and 3.4% annually, while core CPI increased 0.2% and 2.5% annually. The data matched expectations and, alongside weak July jobs figures, reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates in September, with markets pricing only a 42% chance of a hike. Energy prices continued to fall, although shelter and some service costs remained elevated, leaving inflation above the Fed’s 2% target.
• On 14/08/2026, U.S. producer prices were flat in July, coming in below expectations and adding to signs that inflationary pressures are easing. The headline PPI was unchanged month over month, while core PPI rose 0.2%, both weaker than forecasts. Falling energy, gasoline and food prices helped offset higher services costs. The report, following a softer-than-expected CPI reading, further reduced expectations for a September Fed rate hike, while initial jobless claims also rose to 209,000, pointing to some weakening in the labor market.
• On 15/08/2026, Rep. Mike Levin has raised concerns about reported poor conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, citing moldy showers, broken toilets, limited hot water and fresh food, supply shortages, and excessive workloads causing fatigue among sailors and Marines. U.S. Central Command denied reports of a deadly fight aboard the carrier, saying the claims were false and that no service members had died.
• On 18/08/2026, President Donald Trump threatened military action against Oman as the 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire expired without a formal deal or direct negotiations. Trump said he was not rushing to reach an agreement, while Iran continued to deny talks with Washington and instead negotiated with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping through the key oil route has nearly halted, with only three vessels passing on Sunday compared with about 130 per day before the war.
• On 21/08/2026, JPMorgan warned that the U.S. Treasury’s increased bond buybacks may provide only temporary relief from rising debt pressures. With governments and companies issuing record amounts of debt while some traditional buyers reduce their Treasury holdings, higher yields may be needed to attract investors. The growing appeal of bonds could also put pressure on stock valuations, particularly as AI-driven borrowing and infrastructure spending increase competition for capital.
• U.S. government debt has surpassed $40 trillion, marking another major milestone as persistent budget deficits continue to drive borrowing higher. The debt has more than doubled from $19.4 trillion a decade ago, while rising Treasury yields and increased corporate borrowing are adding to pressure on government finances. Interest payments have also climbed to nearly $1.2 trillion this year, making debt servicing one of the largest federal expenses.
• On 26/08/2026, Australian inflation came in hotter than expected in July, increasing concerns that the RBA may need to raise interest rates again. Monthly CPI rose 1%, driven by a 7.5% jump in fuel prices, while trimmed mean inflation reached 3.6% annually, above forecasts. Markets lifted the chance of a September rate hike to 38%, while ANZ now expects a 25-basis-point hike in November.
• Iran and Oman are moving toward an agreement to improve shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including a temporary navigation corridor and joint mine-clearing efforts. The prospect of safer transit has pushed oil prices lower, while technical talks continue on a permanent shipping route and future management of the waterway. Meanwhile, the U.S. is increasing economic pressure on Iran, though it has so far avoided broad secondary sanctions that could trigger retaliation from major trading partners such as China.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s efforts to lower U.S. bond yields have drawn increasing skepticism from Wall Street, with critics arguing that government intervention cannot overcome the country’s growing debt and deficits. While Treasury’s expanded bond buybacks have pushed long-term yields lower, investors warn the strategy could distort markets and delay necessary fiscal reforms. Stanley Druckenmiller has urged Treasury to let bond markets determine fair yields, arguing that lasting relief requires reducing the federal deficit rather than suppressing borrowing costs.
• On 27/08/2026, U.S. inflation rose slightly in July, with the Fed’s preferred PCE price index increasing 0.2% monthly and 3.7% annually, both slightly above expectations. Core PCE matched forecasts at 3.3% annually, while consumer income and spending also grew more than expected. The data leaves the Fed cautious about cutting or raising rates, with markets assigning only about a one-in-three chance of a September move as officials assess persistent inflation and rising Treasury yields.
• On 30/08/2026, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that interest rates could rise if inflation fails to cool further, saying recent improvements have not yet shown a meaningful decline in underlying price pressures. His Jackson Hole remarks pushed markets to raise the odds of a September rate hike to 55.7%, while Treasury yields jumped, although Warsh avoided giving clear guidance on the Fed’s next move.
•  Iran’s trade and oil exports have plunged under intensified U.S. sanctions and the naval blockade, with President Masoud Pezeshkian saying overall trade has fallen 25%–35%. Iranian crude loadings reportedly dropped more than 80% year over year in August, as Washington seeks to pressure Tehran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reaching a deal. Tehran, however, says it has sufficient oil reserves and alternative channels to maintain revenue despite the blockade.