Portfolio Update – July 2026

General news

• On 01/07/2026, The Japanese yen fell to a fresh 40-year low against the U.S. dollar, fueling speculation of possible intervention by Japanese authorities, while U.S. stock futures edged lower after major indexes posted strong first-half gains. AI and semiconductor stocks continued to drive market performance, helping the Nasdaq and S&P 500 deliver solid year-to-date returns, though some analysts warned the sector may be due for a pause after its rapid rally. Investors are now focused on upcoming U.S. economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, which could provide further clues on the outlook for interest rates.
• AI chip stocks delivered massive gains in the second quarter as investors broadened their bets beyond Nvidia. Micron, Intel and AMD collectively added around $2 trillion in market value, fueled by soaring demand for AI infrastructure, while companies such as Marvell and Arm also posted strong rallies. The move signals growing confidence that the AI boom will benefit the entire semiconductor ecosystem, not just Nvidia.
• On 02/07/2026, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remains too high but gave no indication of whether the Fed will change interest rates at its meeting later this month. Speaking at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, Warsh also revealed that the Fed will announce staffing for its five new task forces next week, saying they aim to use advanced technologies, including AI, to improve real-time economic analysis and support better policy decisions.
• On 07/07/2026, China’s housing market remained under pressure in the first half of 2026, with home prices continuing to decline as buyers delayed purchases in anticipation of further falls. Secondary home prices dropped across most major cities, led by Nanjing and Wuhan, while weak sales, falling property investment, reduced construction activity, and deteriorating buyer confidence suggest the market is unlikely to see a meaningful recovery in the near term.
• On 08/07/2026, Oil prices climbed after Iran attacked tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over the stability of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement and global energy supplies. Brent crude settled up 3% at $74.16 per barrel and WTI gained 2.8% to $70.44, before extending gains after the U.S. revoked Iran’s oil export license. The renewed tensions have increased fears of further disruptions to one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes, despite ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.
• Despite a broader semiconductor sell-off, Nvidia showed relative strength by closing higher as investors shrugged off reports of delays to its next-generation AI servers. While AI-related money has recently rotated into memory and chipmakers like Micron, bullish options activity suggests traders are betting Nvidia could regain momentum, with heavy buying of short-term call options centered around the $200 price level signaling expectations of a near-term breakout.
• On 09/07/2026, U.S. Treasury yields rose as escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran drove oil prices sharply higher, increasing concerns that renewed energy inflation could keep interest rates elevated. President Donald Trump’s comments that the Iran ceasefire was effectively over pushed Brent crude above $78 per barrel, while investors also digested Federal Reserve meeting minutes that showed policymakers remain divided on the path of interest rates amid persistent inflation uncertainty.
• US-Iran tensions escalated again after U.S. forces launched fresh strikes on Iranian targets in response to attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran effectively over and signaled he may abandon peace negotiations, while both sides accused each other of violating last month’s agreement. The renewed conflict has heightened concerns over global oil supplies, maritime security, and the risk of a broader regional escalation.
• President Donald Trump sharply criticized Spain at the NATO summit in Ankara, accusing the country of failing to contribute enough to the alliance and calling for a halt to trade and tourism with Spain. The remarks stem from Spain’s refusal to commit to NATO’s target of spending 5% of GDP on defense by 2035, despite increasing its defense budget to 2.1% of GDP in 2025. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte acknowledged Spain’s recent spending increases but said further issues remain, while Spain dismissed Trump’s comments as routine political rhetoric and reaffirmed the value of its economic and defense ties with the United States.
• On 10/07/2026, Despite recent exchanges of airstrikes, the U.S. says it remains committed to **technical talks** with Iran, describing the ongoing ceasefire agreement as **performance-based** while accusing Tehran of violating its terms through attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump expressed skepticism about Iran’s willingness to honor a deal but confirmed negotiations would continue, even as the U.S. resumed military strikes and reinstated oil sanctions. Oil prices eased slightly despite the heightened tensions, reflecting cautious optimism that diplomatic efforts may still prevent a broader escalation.
• On 14/07/2026, President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 20% fee on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, declaring the U.S. the “guardian” of the strategic waterway while reinstating a blockade of Iranian ports. The proposal, made amid renewed U.S.-Iran military clashes, drew immediate criticism from Iran, the International Maritime Organization, and legal experts, who argue there is no basis under international law for charging transit fees. The announcement pushed oil prices higher, weighed on stock markets, and added fresh uncertainty to global energy supplies and maritime trade.
• China’s inflation remained subdued in June as weak consumer demand continued to weigh on the economy. Consumer prices rose 1% year-over-year, missing expectations, while producer prices increased 4.1%, driven by higher energy and AI-related manufacturing costs. Despite resilient exports and strong high-tech manufacturing, analysts say sluggish consumer spending and the prolonged housing downturn are limiting broader economic recovery, reducing the likelihood of significant stimulus unless growth weakens further. The IMF recently raised China’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.6%, citing its export strength and infrastructure investment.
• On 15/07/2026, U.S. inflation cooled sharply in June as lower energy prices pushed the Consumer Price Index down 0.4% for the month, reducing annual inflation to 3.5%, while core inflation eased to 2.6%. The drop, driven by falling fuel costs and moderating services inflation, offered temporary relief after months of elevated prices. However, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh cautioned that inflation remains too high, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East threatening to push energy prices higher again, leaving markets still expecting a potential interest rate hike later this year.
• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed his commitment to a major overhaul of the central bank, calling inflation an “unfair burden” and advocating for a “regime change” in monetary policy. In testimony to Congress, he emphasized restoring price stability as the Fed’s top priority while unveiling reforms across communications, technology, data, the balance sheet and inflation strategy. Warsh also highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy, pointing to surging AI-related investment as a key growth driver that could eventually boost productivity and help ease inflation over the long term.
• Oil prices climbed as renewed U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the reimposition of a naval blockade heightened concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude settled at $79.34 per barrel and Brent at $84.73, while President Trump dropped plans to impose a 20% transit fee on ships after industry backlash, opting instead to seek investment commitments from Gulf states. Despite ongoing attacks on commercial vessels and reduced tanker traffic through Hormuz, millions of barrels of oil continue to flow through the critical shipping route, keeping supply risks firmly in focus.
• On 16/07/2026, U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell **0.3% in June**, driven by a sharp drop in energy costs, offering further signs that inflation pressures are easing. Core producer inflation remained modest at **0.2%**, while gasoline prices plunged **12%**, contributing heavily to the decline. Combined with the previous day’s softer consumer inflation report, the data has reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes, though Chair Kevin Warsh cautioned that the fight against inflation is not yet over and policymakers remain focused on returning inflation to the 2% target.
• On 20/07/2026, The U.S. launched its ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to weaken Tehran’s ability to attack commercial shipping as tensions continue to escalate. The renewed fighting has pushed Brent crude above $90 per barrel and further disrupted global oil flows, with tanker traffic dropping to its lowest level in weeks. Both sides accuse each other of violating their June memorandum of understanding, while casualties continue to rise and attacks have expanded to civilian infrastructure, raising concerns that the conflict could spiral back into a full-scale war.
•  On 22/07/2026, President Donald Trump announced that imported generic drugs will remain tariff-free for two years starting August 1, after which they will face a 100% tariff in August 2028, rising to 200% in 2029. The phased approach is designed to encourage pharmaceutical manufacturers to relocate production to the U.S., while tariffs on patented drugs remain unchanged. The policy could significantly impact major generic drug exporters such as India, which supplies nearly half of all generic medicines used in the U.S., and increase pressure on global pharmaceutical supply chains.
• On 23/07/2026, Amazon has laid off an undisclosed number of employees within its Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) division as it refocuses resources on its highest-priority AI initiatives. The cuts reportedly affected teams working on model customization and post-training, even as the company continues to invest heavily in AI infrastructure and foundation models. The move reflects Amazon’s broader strategy of streamlining operations while spending an estimated $200 billion on AI expansion this year to better compete with rivals such as OpenAI, Anthropic and Google.
• U.S. mortgage demand rose 1.9% last week despite mortgage rates climbing to 6.69%, their highest level since last August. While higher borrowing costs caused refinancing applications to fall 2%, purchase mortgage applications increased 6% as homebuyers took advantage of reduced competition and more sellers lowering prices during the slower summer housing season.
• On 24/07/2026, The U.S. House has passed the Stop Insider Trading Act, a bill aimed at restricting members of Congress from buying individual stocks while in office. Although the measure reflects growing public concern over lawmakers’ stock trading, critics argue it is too weak because it still allows certain trading activities. The bill also includes a voter ID provision, reducing Democratic support, and now heads to the Senate, where its prospects remain uncertain.
• Several U.S. trading partners, including Australia, Brazil, Chile and Canada, have rejected President Donald Trump’s new Section 301 tariffs tied to alleged failures to prevent imports made with forced labor. While countries criticized the tariffs as unjustified and inconsistent with existing trade agreements, most said they would continue negotiations rather than impose retaliatory measures. The new duties, ranging from 10% to 12.5%, replace the temporary global tariff introduced earlier this year and provide the Trump administration with a more durable legal basis for broad import tariffs following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated its previous emergency-powers approach.
• Japan’s core inflation rose to 1.6% in June, marking its first increase since March as higher oil prices began feeding into the broader economy. While government energy subsidies helped contain consumer price growth, rising producer prices and a weak yen continue to increase import costs, raising concerns that inflation could accelerate further. Analysts expect the Bank of Japan to remain cautious but warn that persistent energy pressures and currency weakness could bring forward the timing of its next interest rate hike.
• On 25/07/2026, President Donald Trump said he is considering launching a “massive attack” on Iran as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, though reports suggest Pakistan, with support from China, is attempting to revive diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran. Investor optimism over possible negotiations lifted stocks and pushed oil prices lower, even as the U.S. carried out another night of strikes against Iranian targets. Trump also warned Iran would be held responsible for future attacks by the Tehran-backed Houthis, while Tehran threatened consequences for countries, including the U.K., that support U.S. military operations.
• On 29/07/2026, U.S. stocks finished mixed on Tuesday as investors rotated out of semiconductor stocks and into more traditional sectors. The Dow Jones gained 1.03%, lifted by strong earnings from Sherwin-Williams and Coca-Cola, while the S&P 500 rose 0.21%. The Nasdaq slipped 0.22% as chip stocks, including AMD and Micron, continued to decline. Lower oil prices, driven by easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, also supported sentiment. Investors are now focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and earnings reports from major tech companies including Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft.
• On 30/07/2026, The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, but the decision revealed growing concern over inflation as three regional Fed presidents voted in favor of an immediate 0.25% rate hike—the first three-way dissent of this kind since 2016. Chairman Kevin Warsh maintained a cautious stance, offering little guidance on future policy, while the Fed reiterated that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. The split suggests the central bank is becoming more hawkish, with markets continuing to expect a potential rate hike later this year if inflation remains elevated.
• The U.S. resumed airstrikes on Iran after Iranian missile attacks targeted American forces in the Middle East, ending a brief pause for diplomatic talks. The renewed conflict heightened concerns over regional stability and oil supplies, sending Brent crude close to $91 and WTI above $84 per barrel. Fighting also expanded across the region, with joint U.S.-Saudi strikes on Iran-backed militias following attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.
• South Korea’s Kospi plunged nearly 13% intraday on Wednesday before closing 6% lower, triggering a market-wide circuit breaker for the second consecutive session. The sell-off was driven by heavy retail and foreign investor selling, with semiconductor giants Samsung Electronics and SK hynix leading losses after weaker-than-expected earnings and concerns over China’s growing competitiveness in memory chips. Analysts said panic selling, fading confidence in the AI sector, and geopolitical uncertainty further intensified the market downturn.
• On 31/07/2026, Australia’s headline inflation slowed to 3.8% in June, down from 4.0% in May, largely driven by lower fuel prices due to easing global oil prices and ongoing fuel excise relief. However, underlying inflation remained unchanged at 3.6%, indicating persistent price pressures. While the softer headline figure has reduced expectations of an interest rate hike next month and weakened the Australian dollar, economists caution that strong housing costs, a tight labour market, and energy price risks mean the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to remain cautious.
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