Portfolio Update – March 2026

General news

• On 01/03/2026, President Donald Trump confirmed that the U.S. has launched “major combat operations” against Iran, stating the objective is to eliminate imminent threats from the Iranian regime, as the conflict rapidly escalated across the Middle East. U.S. forces reportedly carried out air and sea strikes on targets in Tehran, while Israel also attacked Iran’s capital, prompting Iranian missile counterattacks toward Israel and Gulf nations. Explosions were reported in multiple cities, and countries including Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain condemned the strikes on their territories, with U.S. embassies in the region issuing shelter-in-place alerts amid fears of further escalation.
• On 02/03/2026, The U.S. and Israel launched their most aggressive strikes yet on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and sharply escalating regional tensions as Tehran retaliated with missile and drone attacks across Israel and Gulf states hosting U.S. bases. President Donald Trump described the operation as a decisive step to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat and warned further bombings would continue if retaliation persists. Explosions were reported in multiple Middle Eastern countries, while investors braced for risk-off market reactions, with oil prices expected to jump, safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar poised to gain, and Bitcoin showing volatility amid fears of a broader conflict and potential oil supply shock.
• Iran, OPEC’s fourth-largest producer at just over 3 million barrels per day, sits along the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that handles roughly a third of global seaborne crude exports and about 20% of LNG flows. Analysts warn markets may be underestimating the risk that escalating conflict could disrupt traffic through the strait, potentially pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel and triggering a global recession if supplies are severely constrained. While some Gulf producers have limited pipeline alternatives and the U.S. could tap its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, experts caution that a prolonged closure would overwhelm available offsets, spark bidding wars among major Asian importers, and significantly tighten global energy markets.
• On 03/03/2026, Crude oil surged more than 8% Monday, with U.S. crude settling at $72.74 and Brent at $79.45, as fears intensified that escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran could severely disrupt global supply. Prices spiked further after reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed the Strait of Hormuz was closed, halting tanker traffic through the critical oil chokepoint. While President Donald Trump signaled openness to talks even as military operations continue, Iranian officials rejected negotiations, leaving markets focused on whether prolonged disruptions to maritime traffic will drive oil prices significantly higher in the days ahead.
• On 04/03/2026, Natural gas prices have surged sharply as escalating conflict around the Strait of Hormuz threatens global LNG flows, raising concerns about economic fallout in Europe and parts of Asia. Europe’s benchmark Dutch TTF contract jumped 35% in a single session and is up roughly 76% for the week, while the Japan-Korea Marker hit a one-year high. Supply fears intensified after Qatar halted LNG production following drone strikes, with estimates suggesting a near-term 19% hit to global LNG supply. Analysts warn Europe is particularly vulnerable given its reliance on LNG imports, with potential disruptions comparable to the 2022 energy shock, while energy stocks such as Equinor have rallied on expectations of tighter supply.
• On 05/03/2026, U.S. private-sector hiring rose to 63,000 jobs in February, beating expectations but remaining narrowly concentrated in education, health services, and construction, according to ADP. Wage growth stayed steady at 4.5% for job-stayers, while gains for job switchers fell to 6.3%, reducing incentives to change jobs. Most hiring came from small businesses, while several sectors including manufacturing and professional services lost jobs. Despite stable employment conditions, inflation concerns and rising oil prices are pushing expectations for the next rate cut from the Federal Reserve to July or later.
• Amazon confirmed that several Amazon Web Services data centers in Bahrain and the UAE were damaged following drone strikes linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps amid escalating U.S.–Iran tensions. Iranian state media claimed the Bahrain facility was targeted due to alleged support for U.S. military operations. The affected centers remain offline, causing service disruptions for some cloud applications, while AWS advised customers to back up data and shift workloads to other regions as the company moves employees in the Middle East to remote work.
• China set its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%–5%, the lowest official goal since the early 1990s, as policymakers confront weak domestic demand, deflationary pressure and ongoing trade tensions with the United States. The government kept its budget deficit target at about 4% of GDP and maintained the consumer inflation goal at around 2%, reflecting subdued price growth and soft consumer confidence. In a report delivered by Li Qiang during the annual session of the National People’s Congress, officials also aimed to keep urban unemployment near 5.5% and create 12 million new urban jobs, signaling a shift toward prioritizing sustainable, higher-quality growth over rapid expansion.
• On 06/03/2026, Oil prices surged as the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran disrupted global energy supply and halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 8.5% to $81.01 per barrel—its biggest daily gain since 2020—while Brent Crude rose to $85.41, pushing U.S. oil prices up about 21% for the week. The disruption has also lifted U.S. gasoline prices to an average of $3.25 per gallon. Donald Trump said further measures to ease oil market pressure are being considered, including naval escorts and political risk insurance for tankers, as uncertainty remains over when the critical shipping route will reopen.
• The conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has triggered a major global travel disruption, leaving more than 1 million passengers stranded and grounding over 20,000 flights due to widespread airspace closures. Travelers such as Zoey Gong were forced to pay significantly higher fares to reroute flights, while demand for flexible travel insurance surged sharply. Retaliatory strikes across countries including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Jordan have complicated airline operations around major hubs like Dubai International Airport, creating a severe aviation crisis that is rippling through the global tourism industry.
• Following escalating tensions in the Middle East, the U.S. granted India a 30-day waiver to continue purchasing Russian crude after previously imposing 25% penalty tariffs. The move aims to stabilize global oil supplies as the conflict involving Iran disrupts energy exports from Gulf producers. Oil prices surged, with West Texas Intermediate rising to $81.01 per barrel and Brent crude reaching $85.41 before easing slightly. As one of the world’s largest oil importers and refiners, India has reportedly secured up to 6–8 million barrels of Russian oil in recent days to offset regional supply risks. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—which handles about 20% of global oil flows—has largely stalled due to security threats and rising insurance costs, adding further pressure to global energy markets.
• On 07/03/2026, The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the United States economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, worse than expectations of a 50,000 decline and below January’s revised gain of 126,000, as severe winter weather and a strike at Kaiser Permanente disrupted employment. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, although a broader measure of unemployment fell to 7.9%. The health-care sector, previously a major job growth driver, lost 28,000 positions largely due to the strike involving more than 30,000 workers. Despite weaker hiring, wages grew faster than expected, with average hourly earnings increasing 0.4% for the month and 3.8% year over year, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainty and inflation concerns noted by Mary Daly of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
• U.S. crude oil posted its largest weekly gain on record as the escalating Middle East conflict disrupted global fuel supplies. West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped 12.21% to $90.90 per barrel while Brent crude oil rose 8.52% to $92.69, with weekly gains of about 36% and 28% respectively—the biggest increases since futures trading began in 1983. The surge follows rising tensions after Donald Trump demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender, fueling fears of prolonged conflict and a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, a route carrying about 20% of global oil supply. Energy officials warn prices could climb to $150 per barrel if tanker traffic remains blocked, while production cuts across Gulf producers and supply disruptions continue to push markets higher.
• On 10/03/2026, China’s consumer inflation rose 1.3% year-over-year in February, the fastest increase in over three years, driven largely by stronger spending during the extended Lunar New Year holiday. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China also showed core inflation climbing 1.8%, while factory-gate deflation eased as rising commodity and metal costs supported producer prices. Despite the rebound, policymakers remain cautious as weak domestic demand persists, maintaining a 2% inflation target and a modest 4.5%–5% GDP growth goal, while monitoring global risks such as Middle East tensions that could push commodity prices higher and pressure the economy.
• On 12/03/2026, The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced a record release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves to ease the massive supply disruption caused by the Iran conflict and the halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that normally carries about 20% of global oil and gas flows. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the emergency release aims to stabilize energy markets as Middle East production cuts and infrastructure damage tighten global fuel supplies. Despite the move, analysts warn the release may not fully offset the nearly 20 million barrels per day typically transported through the strait, keeping oil markets volatile.
• U.S. inflation rose in line with expectations in February, with the Consumer Price Index increasing 0.3% for the month and 2.4% annually, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.2% monthly and 2.5% year over year, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but showing no acceleration. While housing and services prices rose modestly and some goods like used vehicles declined, economists warn that the recent surge in oil prices following the Iran conflict could push inflation higher in the coming months, potentially complicating the Fed’s outlook on interest rate cuts.
• On 13/03/2026, The Office of the United States Trade Representative has launched new trade investigations into 60 economies under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to assess whether governments have failed to block imports produced with forced labor. The probes include major economies such as China, European Union, India and Mexico, and could lead to new tariffs if unfair practices are confirmed. The move follows earlier investigations into industrial overcapacity and is seen by analysts as an alternative strategy after the Supreme Court of the United States struck down the reciprocal tariffs introduced by Donald Trump, with hearings scheduled from April 28 to May 1.
• The United States budget deficit exceeded $1 trillion for the fiscal year through February, though it was about 12% lower than the same period in 2025, according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. A surge in tariff revenue—largely tied to trade policies under Donald Trump—helped narrow the gap, with customs duties reaching $151 billion, nearly 294% higher year over year and even surpassing corporate tax receipts. Despite the improvement, rising interest payments on the nearly $39 trillion national debt continue to weigh on federal finances, with interest costs among the government’s largest expenses.
• On 14/03/2026, The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the United States economy grew just 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, sharply revised down from earlier estimates and far below expectations, partly due to a record-long government shutdown that cut federal spending. Meanwhile, inflation pressures remained elevated as the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 0.3% in January and 2.8% annually, with core inflation reaching 3.1%. The weaker growth and persistent inflation signal mounting economic challenges heading into 2026, particularly as rising energy prices from the Iran conflict could further complicate the Fed’s policy outlook.
• U.S. mortgage rates climbed to 6.41% for a 30-year fixed loan, their highest level since September, as bond yields rose amid inflation concerns linked to the Iran conflict, according to Mortgage News Daily. Rates typically track the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which has increased as investors worry that rising oil prices could push inflation higher. The jump could dampen the spring housing market, with homebuilder Lennar warning that affordability pressures, cautious consumers and geopolitical uncertainty are already weighing on demand.
• On 16/03/2026, U.S. oil prices climbed above $100 per barrel as tensions with Iran escalated and the Donald Trump administration considered strikes on key export facilities at Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran’s crude exports. West Texas Intermediate rose to about $101, while Brent crude topped $106, as tanker attacks and the near-halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global supply. Despite a coordinated 400-million-barrel emergency release led by the International Energy Agency, analysts warn prices could remain volatile as the conflict threatens a major share of global oil flows.
• On 17/03/2026, The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.1%, citing rising inflation risks driven in part by surging oil prices amid the Middle East conflict. While markets were divided ahead of the decision, economists had increasingly warned that higher fuel costs could push inflation toward 5%, reinforcing the need for tighter policy. The move reflects concerns that inflation is returning to target too slowly, with policymakers prioritizing price stability despite the added pressure on households and businesses.
• Oil prices pulled back as Donald Trump pushed allies to form a coalition to protect tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, easing some supply concerns despite ongoing tensions with Iran. Brent crude fell to around $100, while West Texas Intermediate dropped below $94, after earlier surging above $100 amid war-driven disruptions. The Strait, which carries about 20% of global oil supply, remains a critical flashpoint, with potential strikes on Kharg Island—Iran’s key export hub—still posing risks of further volatility and supply shocks.
• On 19/03/2026, U.S. wholesale prices rose more than expected in February, signaling persistent inflation pressures even before the recent energy shock. The producer price index increased 0.7% for the month (vs. 0.3% forecast), while core PPI rose 0.5%, driven largely by higher service costs. Annual inflation reached 3.4% (headline) and 3.9% (core), both well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The data pushed bond yields higher and delayed expectations for rate cuts to at least December. Rising food and energy prices also contributed, but strong services inflation remains a key concern, complicating the Fed’s policy outlook—especially as oil prices surge due to Middle East tensions.
• The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% amid persistent inflation, mixed labor signals, and uncertainty from the Iran war, with Jerome Powell noting it’s too early to gauge the conflict’s economic impact. While officials still expect limited future rate cuts, projections have been scaled back as rising oil prices and inflation concerns weigh on the outlook.
• On 20/03/2026, Global market volatility driven by the Middle East conflict is disrupting India’s IPO pipeline, with firms like PhonePe pausing listings as investor appetite weakens. Stock indices have fallen over 12% since January, foreign investors have pulled billions, and a weaker rupee has failed to offset the pressure, reducing liquidity and valuations. Major companies including Flipkart, Oyo, and Reliance Jio are delaying or reconsidering IPO plans until market conditions stabilize.
• On 21/03/2026, U.K. government borrowing costs surged to their highest since the 2008 financial crisis, with 10-year gilt yields topping 5% as investors priced in rising inflation and likely rate hikes. The sell-off, driven by energy price shocks from the Iran war and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, has sharply lifted yields across maturities and erased expectations of rate cuts from the Bank of England, with markets now anticipating tighter policy instead.
• U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply as investors scaled back expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, fearing the Middle East war will push inflation higher. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.39% while shorter-term yields also increased, reflecting expectations of a more hawkish policy stance, with markets now even pricing in a possible rate hike as escalating conflict and rising oil prices worsen the inflation outlook.
• On 23/03/2026, Donald Trump threatened to strike and “obliterate” Iran’s power plants within 48 hours if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened, marking a sharp escalation in the conflict. Iran warned it would retaliate by targeting U.S. and regional infrastructure, while officials said such attacks could severely disrupt energy systems and drive oil prices higher. The threat comes as Iran and Israel intensify strikes, including near nuclear-related sites, raising fears of broader regional damage.
• On 24/03/2026, U.S. Treasury yields fell after Donald Trump said military strikes on Iran would be postponed following “productive” talks, easing market tensions. The 10-year yield dropped to around 4.35% after earlier rising on fears the Federal Reserve might delay or avoid rate cuts due to inflation risks from the conflict, while shorter- and longer-term yields also declined as investors reassessed geopolitical and economic outlooks.
• The European Union and Australia finalized a long-awaited trade deal after eight years of negotiations, removing most tariffs and boosting market access on both sides. The agreement will eliminate about 98–99% of duties, expand trade in goods like wine, dairy, and machinery, and secure EU access to Australia’s critical minerals such as lithium. Leaders including Ursula von der Leyen and Anthony Albanese said the deal strengthens economic and strategic ties amid rising global uncertainty.
• Donald Trump said the U.S. has paused planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days to allow for potential negotiations, claiming “productive” talks are underway, though Iranian officials deny any discussions; the move briefly lifted markets and lowered oil prices, with Trump expressing optimism about a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while warning military action could resume if diplomacy fails.
• On 25/03/2026, Shehbaz Sharif offered to host peace talks between the U.S. and Iran to help end the ongoing conflict, signaling support for diplomatic resolution amid rising global tensions, while Donald Trump claimed progress in negotiations—despite Iran denying formal talks—as regional players including Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey reportedly act as intermediaries, even as the U.S. considers further military deployments, highlighting the uncertain balance between diplomacy and escalation.
• On 26/03/2026, Oil prices climbed as Iran signaled it won’t engage in direct talks with the U.S., with Brent and WTI both rising over 2%, reflecting continued geopolitical tension despite a U.S. ceasefire proposal under review; Abbas Araghchi emphasized that indirect exchanges via mediators don’t constitute negotiations, contradicting claims by Donald Trump that talks are underway, while analysts suggest the Federal Reserve will likely stay cautious and “look through” the oil-driven inflation shock unless broader price pressures escalate.
• Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are set to meet in Beijing on May 14–15 after a roughly six-week delay due to the Iran war, with plans for a reciprocal visit to Washington later this year; the summit is being framed as a major diplomatic event amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations that the conflict timeline could align with the rescheduled talks.
• On 31/03/2026, Jerome Powell said the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates despite rising energy prices, as longer-term inflation expectations remain stable and current rates (3.5%–3.75%) are appropriate; he emphasized the Fed will “look through” temporary oil shocks from the Iran war to avoid harming the economy, a stance that quickly lowered market expectations for rate hikes this year.
• Donald Trump warned that the U.S. would “completely” destroy Iran’s key energy infrastructure—including oil wells and Kharg Island—if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened and a peace deal is not reached soon, escalating tensions as the war enters its fifth week; despite claiming progress toward a deal with a “more reasonable” regime, Iran continues to deny direct negotiations, while disruptions to the critical oil route have already driven prices sharply higher.