Portfolio Update – April 2026

General news

• On 01/04/2026, Markets surged as signs of de-escalation emerged in the Iran conflict, with Donald Trump suggesting the war could end soon and U.S. forces may withdraw within weeks, even as uncertainty remains over the Strait of Hormuz; stocks rallied sharply on the news, while oil stayed elevated amid ongoing disruptions. At the same time, the tech sector saw major moves, with OpenAI reaching an $852 billion valuation after a massive funding round, while Oracle reportedly plans significant job cuts due to AI-related spending pressures.
• OpenAI has secured a record $122 billion funding round, valuing the company at $852 billion post-money, with backing from major investors like SoftBank, Andreessen Horowitz, D. E. Shaw, and Microsoft. Fueled by the explosive growth of ChatGPT—now boasting over 900 million weekly users—the company is generating about $2 billion in monthly revenue, though it remains unprofitable. With additional large commitments from Amazon and Nvidia, the funding aims to scale AI infrastructure, but also puts pressure on CEO Sam Altman to justify its massive valuation as it moves toward a potential IPO.
• On 02/04/2026, Donald Trump claimed Iran’s leadership had requested a ceasefire but said the U.S. would only consider it if the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, while warning of continued military escalation. Iran denied making any such request, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating there are no negotiations underway and that Tehran seeks an end to the war rather than a ceasefire. Conflicting claims persist amid uncertainty over leadership authority between President Masoud Pezeshkian and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, as the ongoing conflict continues to disrupt global energy markets and oil flows.
• On 03/04/2026, Oil prices surged sharply, with Brent and WTI crude jumping to around $109–$111 per barrel, as fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict disrupting tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz intensified. Escalatory remarks from Donald Trump, signaling potential military action against Iran in the coming weeks, dampened hopes of de-escalation and drove a risk-off market sentiment, though prices briefly eased on reports that Iran may coordinate with Oman to monitor and potentially reopen transit. Ongoing contradictions between U.S. and Iranian officials over ceasefire talks and control of the strait continue to fuel uncertainty, with the conflict severely disrupting global energy flows and keeping markets volatile.
• On 04/04/2026, The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, beating expectations and rebounding from February’s decline, though overall labor market conditions remain sluggish. Job gains were largely driven by health care and construction, while government and financial sectors saw losses, and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% mainly due to a shrinking labor force. Wage growth came in softer than expected, signaling easing pressure, and the mixed data suggests the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates steady amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
• Blue Owl Capital reported elevated redemption requests for its private credit funds, with about 21.9% for its $36 billion OCIC fund and 40.7% for its tech-focused OTIC fund, though both were capped at 5%. The surge reflects investor concerns over AI’s potential disruption to software companies, a sector with significant exposure in private credit portfolios. Despite the withdrawals—driven by a relatively small group of investors—most shareholders stayed invested, and inflows helped limit overall outflows, highlighting growing uncertainty but not a full-scale exit from the asset class.
• Donald Trump escalated rhetoric against Iran, threatening to destroy bridges and power plants while linking any de-escalation to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil route currently disrupted by the conflict. The remarks followed recent airstrikes near Tehran and ongoing military tensions, with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pushing back strongly and denying ceasefire claims. The situation continues to intensify as both sides exchange threats, energy infrastructure faces risks, and legal experts warn that targeting civilian-critical facilities could violate international law.
• On 08/04/2026, A temporary ceasefire announced by Donald Trump between the U.S. and Iran sparked a global relief rally, with equities surging and oil prices dropping below $100 as hopes rose for eased tensions and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, despite the risk-on move—seen in gains across Asian markets and U.S. futures—investors continued piling into safe havens like gold and U.S. Treasurys, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about whether the ceasefire will hold. The mixed reaction highlights a fragile market sentiment, where optimism over de-escalation coexists with concerns about inflation, growth, and potential renewed conflict.
• On 09/04/2026, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused Donald Trump’s administration of violating the fragile two-week ceasefire, citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, a drone incursion, and restrictions on uranium enrichment, while the U.S., backed by JD Vance, dismissed the claims and insisted the deal never covered Lebanon and that Iran must halt enrichment; both sides remain divided over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—Washington demanding unrestricted access while Tehran considers controlled passage—leaving the ceasefire unstable and tensions still elevated.
• On 10/04/2026, Core inflation, measured by the PCE price index, remained elevated at 3% in February—above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target—while headline inflation was 2.8%, both in line with expectations; consumer spending rose modestly but income declined, and economic growth for late 2025 was revised down to just 0.5%, pointing to a weakening economy even before the Iran war and subsequent energy price surge, reinforcing concerns about a mild stagflation environment as the Fed is likely to stay cautious on interest rates.
• Oil prices edged higher as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persist, with the route still largely closed despite a ceasefire between United States and Iran. Donald Trump warned Tehran against charging tankers for passage, while shipping disruptions and ongoing attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure continue to constrain supply. With roughly 20% of global oil flows affected and limited transit options available, markets remain volatile and may rely on alternative supplies and stockpiles in the near term.
• On 11/04/2026, U.S. consumer confidence, measured by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, fell to a record low of 47.6 in April as concerns over rising energy prices and the Iran war weighed heavily on households, while inflation expectations surged to 4.8% for the year ahead. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed inflation also picked up in March, largely driven by energy costs, reinforcing fears about the economic outlook—though sentiment may improve if supply disruptions ease following the ceasefire.
• On 12/04/2026, Talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down after about 21 hours, with JD Vance saying the main obstacle was Iran’s refusal to commit to abandoning nuclear weapons development—a core demand of Donald Trump’s administration. Despite what he described as substantive discussions, no agreement was reached, though the U.S. left a final proposal on the table. The negotiations, involving figures like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, took place in Islamabad amid efforts to stabilize a fragile ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but were undermined by deep disagreements over nuclear issues and regional tensions.
• On 13/04/2026, Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will begin blockading ships linked to Iran in the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks in Islamabad collapsed, aiming to stop Tehran from profiting off restricted access to the critical oil route. While initially framed as a full blockade, United States Central Command clarified it will target vessels tied to Iranian ports rather than all traffic. The move escalates tensions following failed negotiations led by JD Vance and raises risks for global energy markets, as the strait handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply and its disruption has already driven sharp price volatility.
• On 14/04/2026, The U.S., under Donald Trump, has begun enforcing a blockade targeting ships entering or leaving Iranian ports via the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to pressure Iran to reopen the vital oil route and return to negotiations after talks in Islamabad—led by JD Vance—ended without agreement. The U.S. clarified through United States Central Command that general transit to non-Iranian ports will still be allowed, but vessels linked to Iran will be blocked. Trump tied any potential deal to Iran abandoning nuclear weapons ambitions, while Iranian officials, including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned the move could further spike global energy prices, highlighting rising tensions and risks to oil markets.
• Bitcoin surged to a near one-month high around $75,000, helping push the total crypto market to about $2.6 trillion and triggering roughly $530 million in liquidations—mostly leveraged short positions. Around 80% of these liquidations hit bearish bets on Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating a strong short squeeze rather than purely organic buying. While CoinGlass data highlights derivatives-driven momentum, improving sentiment tied to potential de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, along with institutional inflows via ETFs, has also supported the rally, though analysts caution that Bitcoin still faces key resistance and may not yet be in a confirmed breakout.
• On 16/04/2026, European stocks edged higher on Thursday, led by gains in mining and tech shares, as investors reacted to stronger-than-expected U.K. economic growth and awaited eurozone inflation data, while closely monitoring ongoing U.S.–Iran peace negotiations; the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.25%, with major indexes including the FTSE 100, CAC 40, DAX, and FTSE MIB posting modest gains, supported by upbeat sentiment after Donald Trump suggested the conflict could soon end, although uncertainty remains as officials signal ongoing but inconclusive diplomatic efforts, with broader global markets also lifted by optimism reflected in Asia and record highs on Wall Street.
• On 18/04/2026, Oil prices dropped sharply after Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open during a ceasefire, easing fears of supply disruptions, while Donald Trump signaled the conflict with Iran could soon end; U.S. crude and Brent crude both fell significantly as markets responded to improving geopolitical sentiment, despite ongoing tensions including a U.S. naval blockade and uncertainty around negotiations, with a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon further boosting hopes for a broader regional resolution, though analysts warn supply risks remain if talks collapse.
• On 20/04/2026, A U.S. naval escalation saw the guided missile destroyer USS Spruance disable and seize an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it allegedly ignored repeated warnings, with Donald Trump stating the ship—identified as the Touska and sanctioned by the United States Department of the Treasury—was boarded by Marines following disabling fire; the incident comes amid a broader U.S. naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz and rising tensions with Iran, complicating planned diplomatic talks led by JD Vance and increasing uncertainty around ceasefire negotiations.
• On 23/04/2026, Fatih Birol warned that the world is facing an unprecedented energy security crisis, with around 13 million barrels per day of oil supply disrupted due to the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy flows; the International Energy Agency cautions that the “double-blockade” by the U.S. and Iran could drive inflation, slow economic growth, and trigger fuel shortages—particularly jet fuel in Europe—despite emergency reserve releases, emphasizing that reopening the strait remains the only real solution while urging countries to diversify energy sources and improve efficiency to withstand ongoing disruptions.
• On 24/04/2026, Markets remained relatively steady despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, with Donald Trump announcing a three-week extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, easing immediate concerns while diplomatic efforts continue; however, uncertainty persists as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, keeping oil markets volatile with Brent crude rising, alongside warnings from Fatih Birol of a historic energy crisis, while global equities showed mixed performance across Europe, the U.S., and Asia, and attention also turned to developments like the EU’s financial support for Ukraine and new AI advancements from DeepSeek.
• On 25/04/2026, Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on the United Kingdom unless it removes its 2% digital services tax targeting major U.S. tech firms like Google, Meta, and Apple, escalating trade tensions as the U.K. government—led by Keir Starmer—defends the levy as a key revenue source, with the dispute adding strain ahead of a planned U.S. visit by King Charles III and Queen Camilla.
• On 26/04/2026, World leaders expressed shock and solidarity after an armed attacker attempted to breach security at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, prompting the evacuation of Donald Trump, Melania Trump, and senior officials, with one officer injured but protected by body armor; figures including Keir Starmer, King Charles III, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Joseph Aoun condemned the violence and reaffirmed support for democratic institutions, as authorities continue investigating the suspect and assessing potential implications for upcoming diplomatic engagements.
• On 29/04/2026, The United Arab Emirates announced it will exit OPEC on May 1, citing national interest and a desire for greater production flexibility as it targets increased capacity, in a move influenced by regional tensions with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz that have impacted exports; while the UAE emphasized respect for fellow members like Saudi Arabia and aims to minimize market disruption, its departure marks a significant shift for the decades-old alliance and could reshape global oil dynamics.
• Australians are facing the prospect of multiple interest rate hikes as surging oil prices drive inflation higher, with data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showing consumer prices rose 1.1% in the March quarter and 4.6% annually—the highest since 2023—largely fueled by a sharp spike in petrol costs linked to the Iran conflict, while Jim Chalmers noted the figures predate a temporary fuel excise cut that has since helped ease prices, though concerns remain that inflationary pressures may continue to build.
• On 30/04/2026, Oil prices surged to multi-year highs as geopolitical tensions escalated, with Brent crude climbing above $126 per barrel after reports that United States Central Command would brief Donald Trump on potential military action against Iran, intensifying concerns over supply disruptions amid an ongoing U.S. blockade and stalled nuclear negotiations; reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz and limited export capacity have tightened global markets, while analysts warn that any further escalation could deepen the supply shock despite expectations of gradual output increases from other producers.
• The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% in a notably divided decision, as the Federal Open Market Committee split 8–4 amid disagreements over future policy direction, highlighting uncertainty around persistent inflation and economic signals; in what may be his final meeting as chair, Jerome Powell indicated he may remain on the board pending the outcome of an internal review, while the rare level of dissent underscores growing divisions within the Fed and raises questions about the path forward under new leadership.
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