Portfolio Update – June 2026

General news

• On 01/06/2026, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing a ¥3 trillion supplementary budget to help households cope with rising living costs, but investors remain skeptical about her pledge not to increase bond issuance. Concerns over Japan’s fiscal position have pushed government bond yields to multi-decade highs, with markets doubting that additional spending can be funded without new debt. Higher energy prices, inflation pressures, fuel subsidies, and a weak yen have added to these worries. While analysts see the package as targeted support rather than broad stimulus, bond markets are increasingly pricing in higher inflation, additional debt supply, and further rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. Despite concerns for bonds and the yen, Japan’s economy remains relatively resilient, supported by solid GDP growth, strong exports, corporate restructuring, and continued business investment.
• President Donald Trump said he is in no rush to finalize a peace agreement with Iran, emphasizing that securing a deal preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is more important than speed. While negotiations continue amid a fragile ceasefire, Trump warned that the U.S. could resort to military action if talks fail. The prolonged conflict has disrupted global energy markets, contributed to higher inflation, and kept the strategically important Strait of Hormuz largely closed, with Trump insisting that any agreement must include reopening the waterway and strict limits on Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
• On 02/06/2026, President Donald Trump downplayed the potential collapse of US-Iran peace talks, saying he “couldn’t care less” if negotiations end and describing the discussions as increasingly unproductive. Despite reports that Iran may halt talks and tighten control of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said negotiations are still continuing while emphasizing that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon remains the priority. He also expressed confidence that oil and gasoline prices will eventually fall and suggested that NATO allies should play a greater role in securing the strategically important shipping route.
• On 03/06/2026, Eurozone inflation rose to 3.2% in May, driven largely by a 10.9% increase in energy prices as the impact of the US-Iran conflict continued to push oil and gas costs higher. The data strengthened expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates at its next meeting, with markets pricing in a high probability of a 25-basis-point hike. While food inflation eased, rising services costs and persistent energy pressures kept overall inflation well above the ECB’s 2% target.
• On 04/06/2026, The OECD has downgraded its global growth forecast, warning that the economic impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict could deepen significantly if disruptions to energy supplies and shipping routes persist. It now expects global growth to slow to 2.8% in 2026 before recovering, assuming energy markets stabilize, but projects growth could fall as low as 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 under a prolonged disruption scenario. The OECD also warned that continued instability around the Strait of Hormuz could drive higher energy costs, weaken economic activity, and push global inflation higher over the next two years.
• U.S. private employers added 122,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations and marking the strongest hiring growth since January 2025. Job gains were broad-based across most industries and company sizes, highlighting continued labor market resilience, while wage growth remained steady and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June.
• On 05/06/2026, President Donald Trump said he would be willing to meet Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, if a peace agreement is reached to end the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. The remarks come amid fragile ceasefire negotiations, with both sides still divided over Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route whose disruption has contributed to higher energy prices and market volatility.
• On 06/06/2026, U.S. job growth remained strong in May, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 172,000, significantly above expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Hiring was broad-based across sectors, led by leisure and hospitality, local government, and healthcare, and previous months’ job figures were revised higher. The report highlights a resilient labor market despite inflation and elevated energy prices, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
• On 09/06/2026, Despite the Kospi being one of the world’s best-performing stock markets this year, foreign investors have continued selling South Korean equities, with net outflows reaching an estimated $62 billion by late May. Analysts say the selling is largely driven by portfolio rebalancing rather than weakening fundamentals, as Korea’s strong market rally has increased its weighting in global and emerging-market indices, forcing many international fund managers to reduce exposure to stay within investment and risk limits.
• On 10/06/2026, The U.S. launched retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets after an American Apache helicopter was shot down near the Strait of Hormuz, an incident President Trump blamed on Iran. While the helicopter crew was safely rescued, the strikes threaten ongoing ceasefire efforts and could further delay a potential peace agreement between Washington and Tehran. Iran has denied conducting offensive operations in the area and warned it would respond to the U.S. action, highlighting growing tensions despite recent claims that a diplomatic deal could be close.
• SpaceX is preparing for a record-breaking IPO, seeking to raise about $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation with a fixed share price of $135 set by CEO Elon Musk rather than through the traditional book-building process. The company plans to allocate an unusually large 30% of shares to retail investors, far above typical IPO levels, while underwriters spend extra time distributing shares before trading begins. Despite reporting $18.7 billion in revenue and a $4.2 billion operating loss last year, investor demand remains strong, making the offering one of the most closely watched IPOs in market history.
• On 12/06/2026, Donald Trump said the U.S. is close to finalizing a peace agreement with Iran, claiming the deal could be signed within days and would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, prompting him to cancel planned military strikes. However, Iranian state media denied approving any agreement, calling Trump’s announcement premature despite acknowledging that Washington had accepted parts of Iran’s proposed framework. Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel supports negotiations as long as any final deal includes strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program.
•  U.S. inflation accelerated to 4.2% in May, its highest level since April 2023, driven mainly by rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict, along with tariff-related costs and AI-driven investment. The stronger-than-expected inflation, combined with a resilient labor market, has reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts and raised the possibility of further interest rate hikes if price pressures persist.
• On 13/06/2026, The U.S. and Iran are reportedly close to signing a memorandum of understanding that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, curb Iran’s nuclear program, and ease sanctions in exchange for compliance. While U.S. officials estimate an 80–85% chance of the deal being finalized within days, they caution that internal divisions in Iran could still delay or derail the agreement, despite growing optimism from both sides.
• On 16/06/2026, The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at **4.35%**, maintaining a hawkish stance as inflation remains above its 2–3% target. The central bank said higher energy prices and ongoing global oil supply disruptions could keep inflation elevated, while slower economic growth and uncertainty continue to weigh on the outlook, leaving the door open for further rate hikes if needed.
• On 18/06/2026, The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at **3.5%–3.75%** but adopted a more hawkish stance, removing guidance that hinted at future rate cuts and signaling that a rate hike is now possible. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also opted out of the Fed’s “dot plot” forecasts, while policymakers raised their inflation outlook and reaffirmed their commitment to bringing inflation back to the 2% target amid strong economic growth and a resilient labor market.
• On 19/06/2026, President Donald Trump defended the newly signed U.S.-Iran interim peace deal, dismissing critics while highlighting record-high U.S. stocks and falling oil prices as signs of success. The 14-point agreement extends the ceasefire, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, eases sanctions, and sets the stage for a final peace deal within 60 days, though some analysts argue its terms are largely favorable to Iran.
• On 24/06/2026, Australia’s annual inflation eased to 4.0% in May from 4.2% as lower fuel prices reduced headline inflation, but underlying inflation rose to 3.6%, its highest level since late 2024. The data suggests inflationary pressures remain persistent, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may keep a hawkish stance and could still raise interest rates in 2026.
• More than 11,000 stranded seafarers will begin evacuating through the Strait of Hormuz under a coordinated plan backed by Iran, the United States and regional partners. The phased operation follows last week’s agreement to reopen the vital shipping route, with vessel traffic gradually recovering but still well below prewar levels after months of disruption to global oil supplies.
• Global stock markets fell sharply on Tuesday, led by heavy losses in technology and semiconductor shares across Asia, Europe and the United States. Despite the broad sell-off, analysts said the decline reflects short-term profit-taking and investor caution rather than a broader market crisis, with many continuing to view the AI-driven growth trend as intact.
• On 25/06/2026, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned shipowners that only shipping routes approved by Tehran are permitted through the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting alternative transit corridors proposed by international authorities. While vessel traffic has begun recovering since the recent US-Iran agreement, analysts warn Iran’s continued control over the strategic waterway could keep oil shipments below pre-war levels.
• On 26/06/2026, Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 4.1% annually in May, the highest level since 2023, while core PCE (excluding food and energy) increased 3.4% year-over-year, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer. Rising energy costs remained the biggest driver of inflation, though consumer spending and income also exceeded forecasts, highlighting continued economic resilience. Strong GDP growth and lower jobless claims further supported the view of a healthy economy, with markets still anticipating a possible Fed rate hike later this year if inflation remains elevated.
• On 29/06/2026, Negotiations to end the U.S.-Iran conflict have reportedly been paused after the U.S. launched retaliatory strikes on Iranian military targets following attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. While a Pakistani mediator said talks are on hold, U.S. officials insist technical discussions remain on schedule, and reports suggest both sides may resume negotiations later this week. The renewed hostilities have heightened regional tensions, with Iran launching strikes against U.S. military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, even as commercial shipping through Hormuz continues and oil prices eased on expectations that disruptions to supply would remain limited.
• On 30/06/2026, Oil prices rose on Monday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to pause hostilities and continue negotiations, easing concerns over disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude climbed back above $70 per barrel, while Brent rose to nearly $73, as markets welcomed the temporary de-escalation. However, analysts cautioned that the situation remains fragile, warning that recent military clashes highlight ongoing risks to global oil supplies and that any renewed escalation or slower-than-expected recovery in shipping could drive prices higher.