Portfolio Update – February 2026

General news

• On 01/02/2026, The U.S. government entered a partial shutdown early Saturday after Senate-approved funding expired, despite the chamber passing a bipartisan deal that included five appropriations bills and a two-week stopgap to temporarily fund the Department of Homeland Security. The shutdown occurred because the House, which must also approve the package, will not vote until Monday, though Speaker Mike Johnson has said he supports the deal following President Trump’s endorsement. The lapse affects multiple federal departments, with agencies ordered to begin orderly shutdown procedures, though officials expect the disruption to be brief as lawmakers work to finalize funding for the rest of the fiscal year.
• Illinois regulators’ late-Friday shutdown of Metropolitan Capital Bank and Trust—a small $261 million institution—would normally have been a footnote, but its timing alongside a violent market unwind gave it outsized significance. The bank’s orderly FDIC resolution, the first failure of 2026 with an estimated $19.7 million hit to the insurance fund, coincided with one of the sharpest one-day plunges in decades for gold and silver, plus an roughly 8% Bitcoin sell-off into the mid-$70,000s as leverage unwound and margin calls cascaded. While the bank failure alone was not systemic, the simultaneous stress across banking, precious metals, and crypto suggests tightening financial conditions may be hitting multiple corners of the market at once—raising the question of whether this was an early warning rather than an isolated event.
• On 03/02/2026, House Speaker Mike Johnson said he is confident the House will pass a Senate-approved spending package by Tuesday to end the partial government shutdown, which began Saturday after lawmakers missed the Jan. 30 funding deadline. The bill, amended to strip long-term Department of Homeland Security funding and replace it with a two-week stopgap after Democratic objections, must be reapproved by the House starting Monday. Johnson expects Republicans to pass the measure largely on their own, as Democrats are withholding support and demanding immediate immigration policy changes, complicating the effort given the GOP’s razor-thin majority.
• The United States and India have agreed to a trade deal that will immediately lower tariffs on each other’s goods, President Donald Trump said after a call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, adding that India will significantly increase purchases of U.S. products and curb its reliance on Russian oil in favor of U.S. and possibly Venezuelan supplies. While Trump said the measures would take effect right away, no formal text has been released and it remains unclear whether a binding agreement has been signed, with experts noting that trade changes are only official once published in the Federal Register, following stalled negotiations last year over issues including India’s oil imports.
• The Reserve Bank has raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 3.85%, citing a renewed pickup in inflation during the second half of 2025 and ongoing capacity pressures that are likely to keep inflation above target for some time. The move, widely expected, marks the RBA’s first policy decision of 2026 after three rate cuts last year, with the central bank signaling caution after inflation proved more persistent than anticipated.
• On 05/02/2026, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a wide-ranging phone call covering trade, geopolitics and Trump’s planned April visit to China, with Trump emphasizing commercial ties such as increased Chinese purchases of U.S. energy, agricultural products and a possible major Boeing aircraft deal, while China focused on Taiwan as the most critical issue and urged Washington to act prudently on arms sales. Trump described the discussion as positive and transactional, highlighting commitments on soybeans and potential tariff relief, whereas Xi struck a more measured tone, calling for reciprocity and respect for each side’s concerns. The readouts notably omitted sensitive issues like rare earths and Venezuela, suggesting temporary stability, while analysts said the call reflects Beijing’s effort to manage red lines on Taiwan while keeping relations stable ahead of Trump’s visit.
• U.S. private-sector hiring slowed sharply in January, with employers adding just 22,000 jobs, well below expectations and down from a revised 37,000 in December, according to ADP, underscoring a continued low-hire environment. Nearly all job growth came from education and health services, while several sectors, including professional and business services and manufacturing, posted losses, and large employers cut jobs overall. ADP said hiring has been softening for years, with revised data showing 2025 job gains were weaker than previously reported, while wage growth held steady at 4.5%. The weak report is unlikely to ease Federal Reserve concerns about the labor market, ahead of a delayed official payrolls release due to the partial government shutdown.
• U.S. private-sector hiring slowed sharply in January, with employers adding just 22,000 jobs, well below expectations and down from a revised 37,000 in December, according to ADP, underscoring a continued low-hire environment. Nearly all job growth came from education and health services, while several sectors, including professional and business services and manufacturing, posted losses, and large employers cut jobs overall. ADP said hiring has been softening for years, with revised data showing 2025 job gains were weaker than previously reported, while wage growth held steady at 4.5%. The weak report is unlikely to ease Federal Reserve concerns about the labor market, ahead of a delayed official payrolls release due to the partial government shutdown.
• On 06/02/2026, U.S. markets fell for a second straight session as investors pulled back from risk, pressuring tech stocks and bitcoin. The Dow slid 1.2%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.23% to turn negative for the year, and the Nasdaq fell 1.59%, driven by concerns over heavy AI spending plans and weak forecasts from major tech firms. Bitcoin extended its decline below $64,000, while silver plunged sharply. The sell-off was compounded by fresh signs of labor market weakness, including a spike in layoffs and rising jobless claims, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve may move toward interest rate cuts in the coming months.
• On 07/02/2026, Low oil prices are giving President Donald Trump greater leverage over Iran, according to U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, as tensions rise over Tehran’s nuclear program. With global oil markets well supplied—boosted by higher OPEC+ output, strong U.S. production, and expected growth from Venezuela—Washington faces less risk of price spikes despite military posturing in the Middle East, including the deployment of a U.S. aircraft carrier. Oil prices have risen modestly this year but analysts still expect a surplus, while Iran continues producing over 3 million barrels per day and diplomatic talks between U.S. and Iranian officials have recently resumed.
• On 10/02/2026, Japan’s Nikkei 225 extended its post-election rally to new highs, rising 2.77% and nearing the 58,000 mark, while the Topix also hit record levels amid the “Takaichi trade” following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory. SoftBank surged nearly 12% after its subsidiary upgraded full-year forecasts, adding to recent gains. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea’s Kospi edged higher while the Kosdaq declined, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose modestly, and China’s CSI 300 was flat. Australia’s ASX 200 posted a small gain for a third straight day, while U.S. markets closed higher overnight, with tech stocks lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq and the Dow hitting a record high.
• On 12/02/2026, The U.S. House passed a bipartisan resolution disapproving President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada in a narrow 219–211 vote, marking a rare Republican break from the president and a setback for Speaker Mike Johnson. Several GOP lawmakers, particularly from swing districts, supported the measure despite Trump warning of political consequences, arguing tariffs raise costs for consumers and harm the economy. Democrats hailed the vote as a step toward easing cost pressures on American families, while Republicans debated balancing party loyalty with economic concerns. The resolution now heads to the Senate but is largely symbolic, as Trump is expected to veto it if approved.
• U.S. job growth started 2026 stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 130,000 in January, beating forecasts and improving on December’s modest gains, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. Markets reacted positively as stocks and Treasury yields rose, signaling relief over labor market stability after weak hiring in 2025. Most job gains came from health care, social assistance, and construction, while government and financial sectors saw losses, and wages grew 0.4% monthly and 3.7% annually. Despite lingering signs of a slow and cautious labor market, the data offered optimism for economic stability and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates unchanged in the near term.
• On 13/02/2026, The U.S. and Taiwan have signed a major trade deal lowering tariffs on Taiwanese exports to 15% while Taiwan will remove or reduce 99% of tariffs on U.S. goods and provide preferential access for American industrial and agricultural products, including autos, beef, and minerals. Taiwan also plans to buy more than $84 billion in U.S. goods through 2029 and address longstanding non-tariff barriers, as the agreement follows large Taiwanese tech investment commitments in the U.S. and Washington’s push to shift semiconductor supply chains stateside—an idea Taipei has resisted as impractical. The deal has drawn criticism from China amid rising geopolitical tensions, while the U.S. continues to support Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities through arms sales under the Taiwan Relations Act.
• On 14/02/2026, U.S. inflation cooled more than expected in January, with the consumer price index rising 2.4% year over year and core inflation at 2.5%, the lowest since 2021, boosting optimism that price pressures are easing. Monthly inflation was modest, led by slower shelter costs, falling energy prices, and muted vehicle prices, while food and airline fares rose. Markets reacted calmly, but the data increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut by mid-2026. Despite mixed economic signals—including strong recent growth, weak job gains last year, and lingering tariff-related price pressures—analysts say cooling costs for essentials like rent, food, and gas could provide relief for households and support a more stable outlook.
• The U.S. and Taiwan have finalized a trade deal cutting tariffs on Taiwanese exports to 15% while Taiwan will remove or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on U.S. goods and expand access for American industrial and agricultural products, including energy, autos, and beef. Taiwan also plans to buy more than $84 billion in U.S. goods through 2029 and address non-tariff barriers, following major Taiwanese tech investment commitments in the U.S. However, tensions remain over Washington’s push to shift semiconductor supply chains stateside, which Taipei says is unrealistic, while China has criticized the agreement as undermining Taiwan’s economy amid broader geopolitical frictions and ongoing U.S. arms support under the Taiwan Relations Act.
• On 18/02/2026, Iran partially closed parts of the Strait of Hormuz during Revolutionary Guard military drills, citing security precautions, as U.S.–Iran nuclear talks continued in Geneva. The Strait, which handles about 31% of global seaborne crude flows, was temporarily restricted to ensure shipping safety during the exercise, with analysts expecting only minor delays rather than major disruptions. Oil prices dipped despite earlier gains, while both sides reported some progress in talks but warned that a final agreement is not imminent amid ongoing regional tensions.
• On 19/02/2026, Australia’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in January, with employment rising by 17,800 as strong full-time job gains offset a drop in part-time roles, while the trend rate edged down to a nine-month low, signaling a still-tight labor market. Economists say the resilient jobs data will keep pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to focus on inflation and potentially tighten policy further, with forecasts pointing to the cash rate rising from the current 3.85% to around 4.35% in the second half of the year.
• On 20/02/2026, Japan’s headline inflation fell to 1.5% in January, its lowest since 2022 and ending a nearly four-year streak above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, while core inflation eased to 2% and core-core inflation slowed to 2.6%. The drop was driven by falling food and energy prices, with goods inflation declining sharply and services inflation steady, as the BOJ expects price growth to dip below target in early 2026 amid cost-of-living measures and stabilizing food prices. Despite the slowdown, analysts say underlying inflation pressures remain and the central bank is still likely to continue raising interest rates later this year.
• On 21/02/2026, The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a large portion of President Donald Trump’s tariff program in a 6–3 ruling, finding that the law he relied on does not authorize the president to impose tariffs without congressional approval, delivering a major setback to his signature economic policy. The court said Trump’s interpretation would dramatically expand presidential power over trade and noted no prior president had used the statute to impose tariffs at such scale, while dissenting justices warned the ruling could cause major short-term disruption and complicate potential tariff refunds estimated at up to $175 billion. The decision also challenges Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify sweeping tariffs, reinforcing that Congress holds constitutional authority over taxation and trade policy.
• Underlying U.S. inflation rose more than expected at the end of 2025, with the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increasing 0.4% in December and 3.0% year over year, exceeding forecasts and signaling persistent price pressures. Economists say inflation may accelerate further in January, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts until at least June, as services inflation remains sticky and a sharp spike in legal services prices added to upward pressure despite volatility in that category.
• U.S. economic growth slowed more than expected in late 2025, with GDP rising at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter as a prolonged government shutdown weighed on consumer spending, exports, and federal outlays, though full-year growth still reached 2.2%. Inflation remained elevated, with core PCE at 3% and broad-based price increases across goods and services, keeping pressures above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and supporting a cautious policy outlook. Despite the weak headline GDP figure, underlying demand and private investment stayed solid, suggesting the economy could rebound in early 2026 once shutdown effects fade.
• On 23/02/2026, President Donald Trump announced he would raise global tariffs from 10% to 15%, effective immediately, just a day after the Supreme Court struck down much of his earlier tariff program. He said further tariffs would follow and claimed the new levies are legally permissible, though details and timing remain unclear. The move comes as Trump pivots to using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose temporary tariffs after the court ruled he misused emergency powers, marking an escalation in trade policy tensions ahead of his State of the Union address.
• On 24/02/2026, Europe warned that its trade deal with the U.S. could be at risk after President Donald Trump imposed a sweeping 15% global tariff, prompting the European Parliament to pause its vote on the agreement amid growing uncertainty. European officials criticized the move as destabilizing and said it could breach existing trade commitments, especially after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump’s earlier tariff framework, forcing him to use a temporary legal mechanism limited to 150 days without congressional approval. EU leaders called for clarity and legal certainty, warning that the abrupt policy shift undermines the stability and predictability the agreement was meant to secure.
• On 28/02/2026, U.S. wholesale prices rose more than expected in January, signaling persistent inflation pressures as the core producer price index climbed 0.8% and the headline PPI increased 0.5%, both exceeding forecasts. Annual gains of 3.6% for core prices and 2.9% overall remain well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven largely by a sharp rise in services costs despite a decline in goods prices. The report, which weighed on stock futures, suggests the Fed may stay cautious on interest rate cuts, especially amid concerns that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could further fuel inflation, even as officials debate whether their impact will be temporary.
• President Donald Trump said he would prefer not to use military force against Iran but acknowledged that action remains possible, stressing no final decision has been made as tensions rise over Tehran’s nuclear program. While Trump criticized Iran’s stance in negotiations and warned of potential conflict, Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, who is mediating talks, expressed optimism about reaching a diplomatic solution. Meanwhile, the U.S. authorized some personnel to leave Israel, deployed the USS Gerald Ford off its coast, and confirmed that Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Israel, underscoring escalating regional tensions alongside ongoing diplomatic efforts.