Portfolio Update – January 2026

General news

• On 01/01/2026, Gold and silver prices slipped on Wednesday as investors took profits after a historic rally and CME Group raised margin requirements on precious metal futures for the second time in a week. Spot gold edged down to around $4,340 an ounce, while silver fell sharply after recently surging above $80. The pullback follows a blockbuster year in which gold gained over 64% and silver nearly 150%, both marking their strongest annual performances since 1979, driven by rate cuts, supply constraints, strong demand, and tariff pressures. Higher margin requirements, introduced to manage volatility, have added pressure by forcing traders to commit more capital to their positions.
• On 03/01/2026, The S&P 500 rose 0.19% on the first trading day of 2026, supported by strong gains in semiconductor stocks, while the Nasdaq slipped slightly and the Dow climbed 0.66%. Chipmakers Nvidia and Micron surged, continuing their impressive 2025 performance, but other tech sectors, including software and Tesla, faced declines. The market’s strong finish contrasts with the first-day trends of the past three years and reflects ongoing investor interest in AI-related names. Analysts expect a balanced rotation between tech and non-tech sectors this year, with the S&P 500 projected to rise further. Other highlights included Wayfair and RH jumping after the U.S. postponed tariffs on certain furniture and kitchen goods.
• On 04/01/2026, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a dramatic overnight military operation, with U.S. authorities announcing they face drug-trafficking and narco-terrorism charges in New York. President Donald Trump said the strike was coordinated with U.S. law enforcement, resulted in no American fatalities, and followed weather-related delays. According to U.S. officials, the couple were flown to a U.S. naval vessel and are expected to be transferred to New York to stand trial, marking a major escalation in U.S.–Venezuela relations.
• On 05/01/2026, Analysts say the U.S.-led overthrow of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro is unlikely to significantly disrupt oil markets in the near term, as global supply remains ample and Venezuela accounts for less than 1% of worldwide production. While some Venezuelan output is at risk, oversupply, weak demand, and recent declines in oil prices are expected to limit any price spike. Looking ahead, the bigger market impact could be bearish, as a potential new government and eventual lifting of sanctions may allow Venezuela to boost production substantially, though analysts caution that political uncertainty, past expropriations, and the need for massive long-term investment make any recovery slow and complex.
• On 06/01/2026, U.S. stocks climbed on Monday despite the U.S. attack on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, as investors bet the event would not trigger wider geopolitical turmoil. The Dow hit a new record, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also advanced, led by energy stocks on expectations of oil infrastructure rebuilding in Venezuela. Gains in oil prices, energy shares, financials, gold and Bitcoin reflected a continued risk-on mood, with analysts suggesting the market remains focused on economic fundamentals and Fed policy rather than near-term geopolitical risks.
• The Trump administration has intensified its push to acquire Greenland, with the White House confirming that a range of options is being considered, including potential military involvement, citing U.S. national security concerns in the Arctic. The remarks have drawn sharp pushback from Denmark and other NATO allies, who stressed that Greenland’s future can only be decided by Denmark and Greenland itself. While U.S. officials say buying the territory remains the preferred path, Trump’s comments—coming shortly after U.S. military action in Venezuela—have raised international concern and fueled debate over how far the administration is willing to go to pursue its foreign policy ambitions.
• On 08/01/2026, MSCI’s decision to keep Bitcoin-heavy companies like MicroStrategy in its indexes has avoided an immediate sell-off but intensified a deeper debate over whether such firms are true operating businesses or effectively leveraged Bitcoin investment vehicles. While MSCI halted plans to exclude these companies for now, it froze their index weightings and signaled further review, limiting future passive inflows. Supporters see the outcome as a win for neutral indexing, but critics argue it merely postpones a reckoning, warning that MicroStrategy functions more like a risky, leveraged Bitcoin fund than a conventional company—leaving its valuation and long-term place in equity markets under growing scrutiny.
• Inflation eased in November, with Australia’s annual CPI slowing to 3.4% and underlying inflation edging down, but economists remain split on whether the Reserve Bank will hold rates or hike in February. While the data initially pushed the Australian dollar lower, markets quickly steadied, with traders still pricing a meaningful chance of a rate increase later in the year. Despite the cooling figures being described as a “pleasant surprise,” inflation remains above the RBA’s target midpoint, keeping policymakers cautious as housing costs continue to drive price pressures.
• U.S. private-sector job growth turned positive in December, with employers adding 41,000 jobs after losses in November, according to ADP, though the figure fell short of expectations. Hiring was driven entirely by services industries and small businesses, while manufacturing and some white-collar sectors shed jobs. Wage growth remained steady, and the data offered a modestly encouraging signal for a labor market that weakened late in 2025, ahead of the more closely watched government jobs report later this week.
• On 09/01/2026, The Trump administration is set to hold a sensitive meeting with Danish officials next week as it explores ways for the U.S. to acquire Greenland, a move that has unsettled European allies. President Donald Trump has reiterated that the mineral-rich Arctic island is vital to U.S. national security and said he is serious about pursuing control, even as Denmark and Greenland firmly reject the idea. While U.S. officials say diplomacy remains the preferred path and discussions may include a potential purchase, the White House has not ruled out any options, prompting strong warnings from Danish leaders and bipartisan pushback in Washington against the use of military force.
• Global defense stocks jumped after President Donald Trump called for a $1.5 trillion U.S. defense budget in 2027, citing rising geopolitical risks. Major U.S. contractors including Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, RTX and Kratos Defense posted strong gains, while European and Asian defense shares also advanced. The rally reflects investor expectations of higher military spending and expanded defense contracts amid heightened global tensions following recent U.S. military actions and strategic rhetoric.
• On 10/01/2026, The U.S. labor market ended 2025 on a weaker footing, with December payrolls rising by just 50,000, well below expectations, while prior months were revised lower. Despite soft hiring, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% and broader measures of joblessness improved, reflecting gains in household employment. The mixed report suggests employers remain cautious but not retrenching, with markets reacting calmly as stocks edged higher and yields held steady.
• China’s consumer inflation quickened in December to 0.8%, the fastest pace in nearly three years, as holiday-related spending and higher vegetable prices lifted costs, but underlying demand remained weak. Core inflation was unchanged and factory-gate prices stayed in deflation for a third straight year, underscoring persistent economic softness. With inflation flat for all of 2025 and producer prices still falling, the data suggests Beijing’s stimulus efforts have yet to meaningfully revive domestic demand.
• President Donald Trump met with top U.S. oil executives at the White House to discuss investing in Venezuela’s energy sector, days after the U.S. ousted President Nicolás Maduro. Trump said companies would invest at least $100 billion to rebuild the oil industry, with U.S. security backing and the government deciding which firms gain access, arguing the move would help lower energy prices. Despite Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, production has collapsed, and while Chevron is currently the only U.S. operator on the ground, officials say modest near-term investment could significantly boost output.
• Mortgage rates dropped sharply after President Donald Trump said he would instruct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, pushing the 30-year fixed rate down 22 basis points to 5.99%, its lowest level since early 2023. Analysts say the purchases could lower rates by 10–50 basis points, modestly improving affordability and potentially boosting housing demand, though high home prices and down payment hurdles remain major barriers. While builders and markets reacted positively, experts caution that lower rates alone are unlikely to revive the housing market without broader improvements in overall affordability.
• On 12/01/2026, Trump announced that no more Venezuelan oil or funds will go to Cuba, urging the island to strike a deal with Washington, after U.S. forces captured Venezuela’s president and halted oil shipments to Cuba. As the U.S. advances a multibillion-dollar agreement to purchase Venezuelan oil, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel rejected Trump’s threats, declaring Cuba sovereign and defiant. The move marks a sharp escalation in U.S. pressure on Cuba and signals Washington’s broader effort to assert dominance in the region.
• On 13/01/2026, Opposition is mounting against the Trump administration’s criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the Fed’s headquarters renovation and his congressional testimony, a probe Powell suggested is tied to Trump’s frustration with the Fed’s rate decisions. The investigation has drawn rare bipartisan backlash from former Fed leaders, economists and lawmakers who warn it threatens central bank independence, even as U.S. markets hit new highs and investors remain focused on strong economic conditions despite growing political uncertainty.
• On 14/01/2026, U.S. core inflation cooled more than expected in December, with consumer prices excluding food and energy rising just 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually, slightly below forecasts, signaling easing price pressures as the Fed weighs its next rate decision. Headline inflation met expectations at 2.7% yearly, markets reacted positively, and traders maintained bets that the Fed will hold rates steady this month, though President Trump renewed public pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates.
• China’s exports jumped 6.6% in December, far exceeding expectations, while imports rose 5.7%, lifting the country’s 2025 trade surplus to a record $1.19 trillion despite shipments to the U.S. plunging 30% amid tariff tensions. For the full year, exports grew 5.5% and imports were flat, with China increasingly redirecting trade to non-U.S. markets, drawing concern from major partners like the EU and prompting calls from the IMF for Beijing to rely less on exports and boost domestic consumption.
• Big Tech companies are rapidly hiring energy experts to secure the massive power supplies needed to scale artificial intelligence, with energy-related hiring up 34% in 2024 and still 30% above pre-AI levels. Data centers’ rising electricity demand has pushed tech giants to build in-house energy capabilities, focusing on procurement, grid strategy and market operations rather than traditional sustainability roles. Amazon and Microsoft lead energy hiring, while Google has accelerated recruitment as it expands its AI and energy market strategy.
• Denmark and the United States remain at odds over Greenland’s future after high-level talks in Washington failed to resolve tensions sparked by President Trump’s push to bring the island under U.S. control. Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said any proposal undermining Denmark’s territorial integrity or Greenland’s right to self-determination is unacceptable, while Greenland’s foreign minister emphasized cooperation with the U.S. but rejected the idea of American ownership. Trump, meanwhile, reiterated that anything short of Greenland becoming part of the U.S. would be unacceptable.
• The U.S. and Taiwan have reached a trade deal to expand chip manufacturing in America, with Taiwanese tech companies committing at least $250 billion in U.S. semiconductor investments backed by government credit guarantees. In return, the U.S. will reduce reciprocal tariffs on Taiwan to 15% and eliminate tariffs on select goods, while offering tariff exemptions for Taiwanese firms building chip factories in the U.S., including TSMC, which may expand its Arizona operations. The agreement provides long-sought clarity on semiconductor trade rules and encourages greater U.S.-based chip production while allowing Taiwan to continue manufacturing for American clients.
• On 17/01/2026, Russia has criticized the Trump administration’s talk of taking over Greenland as “extraordinary” and outside normal international law, saying it is closely watching developments. The comments come after U.S., Danish and Greenlandic officials held tense talks that ended without a breakthrough, even as Trump insists the U.S. needs Greenland for national security and dismisses international legal constraints, prompting growing diplomatic concern and NATO military activity around the island.
• On 18/01/2026, Trump announced new escalating tariffs on goods from eight NATO countries — including Denmark, Germany, France and the U.K. — starting at 10% on Feb. 1 and rising to 25% by June, unless they agree to a deal for the U.S. to acquire Greenland. The move, framed as a response to allied troop deployments to the island and justified as a national security measure, threatens existing EU-U.S. trade agreements, prompted emergency talks among EU officials, and raised concerns that Trump is using sweeping emergency powers to launch a fresh trade conflict.
• On 19/01/2026, China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly three years in the fourth quarter, with GDP rising 4.5% as weak domestic demand and a deepening property slump weighed on activity, though full-year growth still met Beijing’s 5% target. Retail sales and investment remained sluggish, while industrial output and exports provided support, driving a record trade surplus. Persistent deflationary pressures, weak borrowing demand and reliance on exports have increased calls for stronger stimulus and structural reforms, prompting the central bank to roll out fresh credit-easing measures.
• European leaders strongly rejected President Trump’s threat to impose escalating tariffs on eight NATO allies unless they accept his push to buy Greenland, calling the move “completely wrong” and “unacceptable.” The proposed tariffs, targeting countries including Denmark, France, Germany and the U.K., have prompted vows of a united European response, possible EU countermeasures and emergency talks, with leaders warning the threat undermines allied relations, territorial sovereignty and transatlantic stability.
• On 20/01/2026, European nations are weighing retaliatory tariffs and powerful economic countermeasures against the U.S. after President Trump threatened escalating duties on eight European allies unless they agree to a deal allowing Washington to acquire Greenland. Emergency talks in Brussels have included discussion of imposing up to €93 billion in tariffs and potentially deploying the EU’s “Anti-Coercion Instrument,” a rarely used tool that could restrict U.S. firms’ access to EU markets, while lawmakers also consider delaying approval of a recent EU-U.S. trade deal as leaders pursue last-ditch diplomatic talks to defuse the dispute.
• On 21/01/2026, China’s central bank kept loan prime rates unchanged for an eighth month, signaling a preference for targeted sector support over broad rate cuts as economic growth slows. With GDP growth at its weakest since 2022, deflation persisting, retail sales hitting a three-year low, and borrowing demand weakening, policymakers are rolling out focused measures — including cheaper relending for key sectors, support for private and tech firms, and eased property mortgage rules — to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the struggling economy.
• On 22/01/2026, President Trump announced that he and NATO’s Mark Rutte have agreed on a preliminary framework for a future deal on Greenland and Arctic cooperation, prompting him to cancel planned tariffs on several European allies. While details remain vague, Trump indicated the proposal involves U.S. participation in Greenland’s mineral rights and the “Golden Dome” missile defense system, framing it as a long-term strategic arrangement. The announcement eased recent tensions over U.S. threats to acquire Greenland, reassured markets, and opened the door for further negotiations with Denmark and NATO partners.
• On 23/01/2026, Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in December as 65,000 new jobs were added, pushing participation to 66.7% and signalling a resilient labour market ahead of the Reserve Bank’s February meeting. The stronger-than-expected jobs growth, driven mainly by full-time and male employment and increased youth workforce participation, has fueled debate over a potential interest rate hike, with economists warning the tight labour market could reignite inflation. While most still expect rates to hold, market expectations for a hike have risen sharply following the data release.
• Markets rose after Trump withdrew plans to impose new tariffs on several European countries, claiming he had reached a preliminary framework with NATO’s Mark Rutte regarding Greenland, though no concrete details or confirmed agreements were provided. NATO officials said Greenland’s ownership was not discussed, leaving European leaders and analysts skeptical of Trump’s “deal,” which was described as lacking substance and raising concerns about using territorial issues as bargaining tools. Some experts suggested Trump’s reversal was driven less by diplomacy and more by financial market pressure and rising bond yields, while Chinese media seized on the uncertainty to urge Europe to reconsider its reliance on U.S. security support.
• On 25/01/2026, Trump warned that the U.S. would impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian goods if Canada finalizes a trade deal with China, accusing Beijing of potentially using Canada to bypass U.S. tariffs. The threat follows Canada and China’s preliminary agreement to reduce trade barriers, including lower Chinese tariffs on Canadian agricultural goods and expanded Canadian import quotas for Chinese electric vehicles. The move marks a sharp reversal from Trump’s earlier support for the deal and comes amid existing U.S. tariffs on certain Canadian products, as well as rising political tensions after Trump withdrew Canada’s invitation to join his proposed “Board of Peace.”
• On 26/01/2026, The likelihood of a partial U.S. government shutdown has increased after Democratic senators vowed to block a $1.2 trillion funding package if it includes financing for the Department of Homeland Security, following outrage over the fatal shooting of U.S. citizen Alex Pretti by immigration agents in Minnesota. Republicans, who control the Senate but lack enough votes to pass the bill alone, say they will not remove DHS funding and plan to proceed, hoping Democrats relent. If the Senate does not approve the bill by Friday, government funding will lapse, triggering a partial shutdown amid growing Democratic demands for accountability and reforms within immigration enforcement agencies.
• On 27/01/2026, Gold surged to a new record above $5,100 an ounce as investors piled into the metal for safety amid rising geopolitical tensions and global fiscal uncertainty. Spot gold jumped 2.4% to around $5,086 after briefly topping $5,102, while U.S. futures climbed similarly. Analysts say conflicts and geopolitical risks — including recent tensions involving Greenland and the Middle East — are strengthening gold’s appeal as a hedge. Silver also rallied nearly 5% to $107.9 an ounce. Strong demand from central banks, institutional investors, ETFs and high-net-worth buyers continues to drive prices higher, with major banks forecasting gold could reach $5,200 to $5,400 per ounce by late 2026 as macroeconomic and policy risk hedging remains firmly in place.
• India is set to sharply cut tariffs on European car imports from as high as 110% to 40%, with plans to eventually reduce them to 10%, as New Delhi and the EU near a major free trade agreement expected to be announced soon. The move will initially apply to a limited quota of high-value European cars, giving automakers like Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW greater access to India’s heavily protected auto market. Electric vehicles will be excluded from duty cuts for the first five years to shield domestic manufacturers, while lower tariffs aim to encourage foreign brands to test the market and expand investment as India’s car market continues to grow.
• On 28/01/2026, Australia’s inflation rose to 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025, the highest in six quarters, matching forecasts and reinforcing expectations that interest rate cuts will be limited this year. Quarterly inflation eased to 0.6% from 1.3%, while December annual inflation climbed to 3.8%, driven mainly by housing costs, food, and recreation. Reserve Bank officials have warned inflation remains “too high” above the 2–3% target, with Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser saying near-term rate cuts are unlikely, a stance echoed by Governor Michele Bullock. The data comes alongside steady economic momentum, with Australia’s economy growing 2.1% in the third quarter — its fastest pace in about two years.
• The European Union and India have finalized a long-awaited free trade agreement that will gradually eliminate most tariffs between the two economies, a move widely seen as a strategic response to U.S. trade volatility. While EU and Indian leaders hailed the pact as a “landmark” deal to strengthen economic and strategic ties, U.S. officials have criticized it, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accusing Europe of moving ahead with India despite U.S. tariffs on Indian goods over Russian oil purchases. President Trump has not yet publicly responded, but the agreement is expected to irritate the White House, which has imposed heavy tariffs on both EU and Indian imports, even as India insists its relationship with the U.S. remains strong and trade talks will continue.
• On 29/01/2026, Spot gold hit a new record above $5,500 per ounce after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, while global markets traded mixed. Asia-Pacific stocks were uneven, with Australia’s ASX 200 falling, Japan and South Korea mostly higher, and Samsung Electronics rising on strong profit results. U.S. markets were little changed after the S&P 500 briefly touched 7,000 for the first time, as Treasury yields climbed following the Fed’s assessment that economic growth remains solid and policy is not overly restrictive.
• The Federal Reserve paused its recent run of interest rate cuts, keeping its benchmark rate at 3.5%–3.75% after three consecutive reductions, as officials signaled confidence in steady economic growth and a stabilizing labor market while noting inflation remains elevated. The Fed raised its growth outlook, softened concerns about labor market weakness, and removed language suggesting greater risk from unemployment than inflation, pointing to a near-term pause in further cuts as policymakers await clearer data and new leadership. Markets now expect no rate changes until at least June, with Treasury yields rising and the S&P 500 hovering near 7,000 following the decision.
• On 31/01/2026, President Donald Trump has nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, bringing an end to months of uncertainty and ongoing tension between Trump and the central bank. Warsh, 55, is seen by markets as a credible and independent choice with strong Wall Street backing, limiting expectations of major market disruption despite Trump’s praise. Pending Senate confirmation, Warsh is set to take over in May when Powell’s term ends, filling a Board of Governors seat as he assumes leadership of the Fed.