Portfolio Update – November 2025

General news

• On 03/11/2025, OPEC+ has agreed to a modest oil output increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December while pausing further hikes from January to March 2026 to prevent a potential supply glut. Since April, the group has raised production by about 2.9 million barrels per day but slowed increases amid oversupply concerns and new Western sanctions on Russia, which have complicated Moscow’s ability to boost output. Brent crude recently settled around $65 a barrel after recovering from a five-month low due to sanctions and trade optimism. Analysts suggest OPEC+ is taking a cautious approach to stabilize prices and manage uncertainty, with the pause reflecting its proactive stance during the typically weak first quarter for oil demand. 
• China’s factory activity growth slowed in October, missing market forecasts as export orders dropped sharply amid renewed U.S. trade tensions. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.6 from September’s 51.2, below the expected 50.9, with new export orders seeing their steepest decline since May. While overall output and new business expanded modestly, business confidence hit a six-month low. Employment showed a slight rebound, marking its first expansion since March. Despite remaining above the 50-point growth threshold and outperforming the official PMI, which fell to 49.0, sentiment weakened. Analysts expect a modest recovery in the coming months following a new U.S.-China trade truce that eased tariffs and stabilized relations.
• On 04/11/2025, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, citing stronger-than-expected inflation and ongoing economic uncertainty. While borrowers hoped for rate relief, the decision was widely anticipated following the September quarter’s higher inflation figures. Despite three rate cuts earlier this year, many mortgage holders continue to feel the pressure from previous hikes. The RBA signaled that further cuts are unlikely soon, with major banks and markets expecting no change until 2026 as inflation remains above target. Persistent price increases in housing, insurance, healthcare, and education are keeping the RBA cautious, reinforcing its stance that sustained evidence of moderating inflation is needed before easing policy.
• OpenAI has signed a $38 billion deal with Amazon Web Services (AWS), marking its first major partnership with the cloud leader and signaling a shift away from exclusive reliance on Microsoft. The agreement will see OpenAI immediately begin running workloads on AWS using hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs, with plans to expand capacity over time. Amazon shares rose 4% to a record high following the news. The deal comes amid OpenAI’s broader effort to diversify its infrastructure partnerships, having recently announced major buildout agreements with Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, and Google. Microsoft’s exclusive cloud arrangement with OpenAI ended earlier this year, allowing new collaborations. Despite the move, OpenAI will continue investing heavily with Microsoft, committing an additional $250 billion to Azure services.
• On 05/11/2025, The U.S. government shutdown is set to become the longest in history on Wednesday, reaching its 36th day and surpassing the 2019 record. Efforts to end the stalemate failed again Tuesday as the Senate rejected a Republican-backed stopgap funding bill for the 14th time, with no further votes scheduled. The impasse centers on the expiration of Affordable Care Act tax credits, with Democrats demanding their extension and Republicans refusing to negotiate during the shutdown. Despite optimism from some GOP senators that a deal could emerge after the record is broken and elections conclude, Democrats remain skeptical, saying Republicans have yet to engage meaningfully in talks.
• On 06/11/2025, Private-sector payrolls grew modestly in October, with companies adding 42,000 jobs — slightly above expectations and reversing September’s 29,000-job decline, according to ADP. Job gains were led by trade, transportation, and utilities (+47,000), along with education and health services (+26,000), while information services (-17,000) and professional and business services (-15,000) saw losses. All job growth came from large firms with 250 or more employees, as smaller businesses shed 34,000 positions. Wages rose steadily, with job stayers seeing 4.5% annual growth and job switchers up 6.7%. Despite this uptick, hiring remains sluggish compared to earlier in the year, reflecting a cautious labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official jobs report was delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, leaving ADP’s data as the key snapshot of employment conditions.
• On 07/11/1995, China’s exports fell 1.1% year-on-year in October — the first drop in nearly two years — amid renewed U.S. trade tensions and a high comparison base. The decline contrasted with forecasts for 3% growth and followed an 8.3% rise in September. Imports rose just 1%, reflecting weak domestic demand. The slowdown preceded a trade truce between Presidents Trump and Xi that eased tariffs and export controls. Despite the dip, China’s trade surplus hit $964.8 billion so far this year, up 23% from 2024. Analysts expect moderate export recovery ahead, though manufacturing remains under strain from falling prices and industrial overcapacity.
• On 08/11/2025, Palantir CEO Alex Karp criticized short sellers, particularly “The Big Short” investor Michael Burry, after filings showed Burry’s fund bet against Palantir and Nvidia last quarter. Karp called the move “crazy,” arguing that both firms are leading AI innovators. Despite beating earnings expectations and issuing strong guidance, Palantir shares fell 8%, while Nvidia dropped 4%, amid growing concerns over high AI valuations. Burry’s Scion Asset Management disclosed large put options against both companies, though it’s unclear if he still holds them. Karp accused short sellers of market manipulation, saying their actions target “one of the great businesses of the world.”
• On 11/11/2025, the Senate passed a bill 60–40 on Monday night to fund the government and end the longest shutdown in U.S. history. The deal, supported by most Republicans and a few Democrats, now heads to the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson has not committed to a key Democratic demand for a December vote on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies. The agreement, which funds the government through January and guarantees back pay for federal workers, also includes a bipartisan budget process and funding for SNAP through September. While President Trump has signaled support, the House vote could occur as early as Wednesday amid ongoing negotiations.
• U.S. air travel faced major disruptions Monday as air traffic controller shortages, worsened by the ongoing government shutdown, led to over 1,600 flight cancellations—about 6% of the day’s schedule. The Trump administration ordered airlines to cut flights at 40 major airports by up to 10% by Nov. 14, with President Trump threatening to dock controllers’ pay if they miss work and promising $10,000 bonuses for those who don’t. Airlines like United, Delta, and American offered extra pay to crews to ease disruptions, while American said 250,000 customers were affected. Cancellations surged to their highest levels since early 2024, forcing travelers to seek alternatives such as car rentals and private jets.
• On 12/11/2025, SoftBank has sold its entire 32.1 million-share stake in Nvidia for $5.83 billion, but the move isn’t tied to concerns about AI valuations. Instead, according to a source cited by CNBC, the proceeds will fund SoftBank’s $22.5 billion investment in OpenAI. The sale comes amid growing scrutiny of AI firms, with investor Michael Burry accusing major players of understating chip depreciation to inflate earnings. Despite such criticism, SoftBank’s decision appears strategic, reallocating capital rather than signaling doubt in Nvidia or the broader AI sector.
• On 13/11/2025, President Donald Trump signed a bill late Wednesday to end the 43-day federal government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, funding operations through January’s end. The House approved the measure 222–209 after Senate Democrats agreed to support it despite the absence of extended Affordable Care Act tax credits. Trump blamed Democrats for the shutdown, saying over a million federal workers were harmed and calling to end the Senate filibuster rule. Only two House Republicans and six Democrats opposed the bill. Federal employees were instructed to return to work Thursday, while the Department of Transportation paused further flight cuts tied to air traffic controller shortages.
• Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in October as 42,000 people joined the workforce, driven by a rise of 55,300 full-time jobs, according to ABS data. The strong labour market prompted Commonwealth Bank to predict the cash rate will stay at 3.6% through 2026, with economist Harry Ottley noting that resilient jobs growth reflects improving economic conditions but could keep pressure on mortgage holders. The RBA, which recently held rates steady due to persistent inflation, is unlikely to cut rates soon, with Betashares’ David Bassanese saying the tight labour market “kills any chance of a Christmas rate cut.”
• On 14/11/2025, China’s economic slowdown deepened in October as weak consumer demand, falling property investment, and a long holiday hurt factory activity. Fixed-asset investment fell 1.7% in the first ten months—its sharpest drop since the pandemic—while industrial output grew 4.9%, down from September. Manufacturing contracted to a six-month low, though retail sales rose 2.9% and unemployment edged down to 5.1%. Inflation turned positive at 0.2%, with core CPI up 1.2%. Exports unexpectedly declined amid heightened U.S. tensions, despite later tariff-easing agreements. Analysts attribute the downturn mainly to the property slump, but expect no major new stimulus as China remains on track for its 5% growth target, with GDP slowing to 4.8% in Q3.
• Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 housing crash, has deregistered his hedge fund Scion Asset Management, ending its SEC reporting requirements. Scion, which managed $155 million as of March, has long drawn attention for its bearish market calls. Burry hinted on X that he is moving on to “much better things” on Nov. 25, fueling speculation that he may shift to a private family-office model. He has recently criticized major AI and cloud companies like Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Oracle, and Meta, accusing them of using stretched depreciation schedules to inflate earnings—potentially understating costs by $176 billion between 2026 and 2028. Analysts say Burry isn’t quitting but stepping away from what he sees as a distorted market dominated by tech optimism and retail enthusiasm. His move comes as other prominent short sellers, including Hindenburg Research and Jim Chanos, face increasing challenges in a market hostile to bearish positions.
• Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have cast doubt on a December rate cut, sharply reducing market expectations from near certainty a month ago to roughly 50/50 now. The shift stems from uncertainty caused by the recent government shutdown, which halted key economic data, and mixed signals showing a softening labor market but inflation still above target. Boston Fed President Susan Collins reinforced this caution, saying rates should likely stay unchanged for some time and that the bar for further easing remains high.
• On 15/11/2025, The U.S. and Switzerland have reached a new trade deal that reduces tariffs on Swiss goods to 15% and includes a pledge from Swiss companies to invest about $200 billion in the U.S. by 2028. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the agreement will bring more Swiss manufacturing—such as pharmaceuticals, gold processing, and railway equipment—to the U.S., helping narrow the trade deficit. The reduced tariffs align Switzerland’s rate with those applied to EU imports, easing the heavy burden from the earlier 39% levy imposed by the U.S. in July. Switzerland expects the lower duties to stabilize trade relations and support its export-driven economy, while the Swiss franc strengthened modestly following the announcement.
• Berkshire Hathaway revealed a new $4.3 billion stake in Alphabet at the end of September, marking Google’s parent as its 10th largest holding and signaling a rare move into another major tech name beyond Apple. The investment was likely made by Berkshire’s portfolio managers Todd Combs or Ted Weschler, who have been more active in tech. Alphabet shares have surged 46% this year on strong AI-driven cloud demand. Meanwhile, Berkshire continued trimming its Apple position — now $60.7 billion after a 15% reduction — along with cuts to Bank of America, Verisign, and DaVita. Despite ongoing selling in an expensive market, Apple remains Berkshire’s largest holding. The disclosure comes as Warren Buffett prepares to step down as CEO at year-end, with Greg Abel set to take over.
• On 17/11/2025, Japan is considering a stimulus package of around 17 trillion yen ($110 billion) under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, with a roughly 14 trillion yen supplementary budget likely to fund it, the Nikkei reported. The plan focuses on easing the impact of rising living costs and supporting growth sectors like AI and semiconductors, though it may further increase Japan’s already massive public debt. Expected measures include larger income tax exemptions, gasoline tax cuts, utility bill subsidies, and funding for prefectural food aid. The final size may shift as ruling parties negotiate.
• On 20/11/2025, Japan’s core inflation rose 3% in October, its fastest pace since July and in line with expectations, marking the 43rd consecutive month above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target and reinforcing the case for further rate hikes. Core-core inflation edged up to 3.1%, while rice inflation continued to ease. The yen strengthened slightly as officials warned about sharp currency moves and hinted at possible intervention. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed that a weak yen could fuel higher inflation and reiterated the bank’s gradual rate-hike approach during his first meeting with new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who favors loose policy but wants inflation driven by wage growth. The BOJ faces pressure as persistent inflation coincides with weakening GDP, which contracted for the first time in six quarters.
• The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September — far above expectations — ending a data blackout caused by the 44-day government shutdown. However, August’s figures were revised to show a loss of 4,000 jobs, and unemployment rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021, even as a broader underemployment measure ticked down to 8%. Wage growth came in slightly mixed, with hourly earnings up 0.2% for the month and 3.8% year-on-year. Economists say the report shows pre-shutdown labor market resilience, but warned the numbers are outdated and don’t fully reflect current conditions.
• On 22/11/2025, Amazon’s recent layoffs — over 14,000 announced last month — hit engineering roles hardest, with WARN filings showing that nearly 40% of the 4,700 documented cuts across several states were engineers. The reductions are part of CEO Andy Jassy’s effort to make Amazon operate more like a lean startup after years of heavy hiring, even as the broader tech sector continues widespread downsizing. Although Amazon says AI wasn’t the main driver, the company is shifting resources toward artificial intelligence and expects corporate head count to shrink as AI boosts efficiency. Mid-level software engineers (SDE II) were hit disproportionately, reflecting a tougher job market as companies adopt AI coding tools and streamline workflows. Amazon is expected to announce more cuts in January.
• On 25/11/2025, Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 housing crash, has launched a $379-per-year Substack called “Cassandra Unchained” after deregistering his hedge fund, aiming to explain his increasingly bearish view on artificial intelligence. Leveraging his 1.6 million followers on X, Burry argues that today’s AI frenzy mirrors past bubbles like the late-1990s dot-com boom, with investors assuming endless growth and overlooking profitability risks. He compared Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments — that AI companies are “actually profitable” and different from past bubbles — to former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s dismissal of housing bubble warnings before 2008. Burry suggests history is repeating, noting he was short Amazon during the dot-com era and is now openly bearish on major AI beneficiaries like Nvidia and Palantir.
• President Donald Trump held a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday, discussing issues such as Ukraine, Russia, fentanyl, and U.S. agricultural products. Trump said the two leaders reaffirmed a strong relationship and agreed to hold reciprocal in-person meetings — Trump visiting Beijing in April, with Xi later visiting the U.S. China’s Foreign Ministry said both sides are implementing agreements from their recent Busan meeting, including U.S. tariff reductions and China pausing new rare earth export controls. They also addressed the Ukraine peace talks, with Xi supporting efforts toward peace, and reiterated China’s stance that Taiwan should “return to China,” which Trump acknowledged as an important issue for Beijing.
• On 26/11/2025, Australia’s inflation accelerated to 3.8% in October, its fastest pace in seven months and above economists’ expectations, driven largely by a 5.9% rise in housing costs and a 37.1% jump in electricity prices as government rebates ran out. The trimmed mean measure also rose to 3.3%. This marks the first full monthly CPI release as Australia shifts away from quarterly reporting. Despite flat month-to-month inflation, the data reinforces persistent price pressures, suggesting the Reserve Bank of Australia may delay rate cuts until mid- or late-2026. Strong business conditions and steady economic growth give the RBA room to keep rates unchanged as it works to bring inflation back within its 2%–3% target range.
• The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, with ADP reporting that private companies have shed an average of 13,500 jobs per week over the past month, a sharp rise from 2,500 per week previously. With the government shutdown delaying key data such as the monthly payrolls and CPI reports, policymakers are relying on alternative indicators, many of which point to renewed job losses in October. Despite September’s stronger-than-expected 119,000 payroll gain, economists expect the Federal Reserve to proceed with an interest rate cut at its Dec. 10 meeting, with Goldman Sachs forecasting two additional cuts in 2026.