Portfolio Update – October 2025

General news

• On 01/10/2025, The U.S. government is shutting down just after midnight Wednesday after Congress failed to agree on a stopgap funding bill, with Democrats pushing to include extensions of Affordable Care Act tax credits and Republicans insisting on a “clean” resolution. OMB Director Russell Vought instructed agencies to prepare for an orderly shutdown, which the CBO estimates will furlough around 750,000 federal workers at a daily cost of $400 million. Sen. John Fetterman broke with his party to back a Republican proposal, saying his vote was “for our country over my party.” Business leaders warned the shutdown would disrupt services and harm the economy, while lawmakers traded blame. House Speaker Mike Johnson accused Democrats of making political demands to protect Senate leader Chuck Schumer from pressure within his party, while Democrats argued health-care protections were essential.
• On 02/10/2025, Prediction market traders expect the U.S. government shutdown, which began early Wednesday after lawmakers failed to reach a funding deal, could last nearly two weeks. Kalshi forecasts an average duration of 11.1 days, while Polymarket traders see the highest odds (38%) of a resolution on or after Oct. 15. Shorter timelines carry lower probabilities, with only 14% expecting a deal in the coming days. Shutdowns typically last about 14 days, but a prolonged closure could strain the fragile economy and weigh on markets, despite the S&P 500 historically averaging a 1% gain during past shutdowns.
• Private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, the steepest drop since March 2023, with August also revised to show job losses instead of gains, according to ADP. The decline, spread across most sectors except education and health services, highlights a weakening labor market just as the government shutdown delays official jobs data. While small businesses shed 40,000 positions, large firms added 33,000. Despite U.S. GDP growth near 3.9% in Q3, hiring momentum is slowing, raising concerns about rising unemployment ahead of the Fed’s late October meeting, where another rate cut is widely expected.
• On 03/10/2025, The S&P 500 edged up 0.01% Friday to 6,715.79, holding weekly gains despite the U.S. government shutdown extending into a third day. The Dow rose 0.51%, the Russell 2000 gained 0.72%, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.28% as declines in Palantir, Tesla, and Nvidia weighed on tech. For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow climbed 1.1%, the Nasdaq 1.3%, and the Russell nearly 2%. Investors largely shrugged off shutdown risks, expecting limited economic impact, though the pause in federal operations delayed key labor data. With signs of a weakening job market and expectations of a Fed rate cut in October, markets remain buoyed, aided by optimism around AI-driven momentum.
• On 09/10/2025, Gold surged past $4,000 an ounce for the first time, driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts that boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold rose 1.5% to $4,044.09, while silver hit a record $49.57 and gained 71% year-to-date amid tight market conditions and strong investor inflows. The rally, supported by central bank buying, ETF inflows, and a weakening dollar, has made gold one of 2025’s best-performing assets. Analysts expect the uptrend to continue, possibly testing $5,000 as global crises, a prolonged U.S. shutdown, and anticipated Fed rate cuts sustain investor demand for precious metals.
• On 11/10/2025, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports starting November 1, along with export controls on critical software, in response to China’s new restrictions on rare earth mineral exports. The move escalates trade tensions as China, which supplies about 70% of the world’s rare earths vital for high-tech industries, plans to require licenses for exports containing even small amounts of these materials. Trump criticized China’s actions as “unprecedented and hostile,” threatening to cancel a planned meeting with President Xi Jinping and framing the tariffs as retaliation for what he called a “moral disgrace” in international trade.
• On 13/10/2025, China announced it will impose docking fees on U.S. ships starting Oct. 14, mirroring Washington’s new $50-per-net-ton charges on Chinese vessels arriving at U.S. ports. Beijing’s 400-yuan ($56) per-net-ton fee, which will also rise gradually through 2028, targets U.S.-owned or -flagged ships and entities with at least 25% U.S. ownership. The Chinese Ministry of Transport said the U.S. policy “seriously violates” international trade principles and harms bilateral maritime commerce. Analysts view the move as a tit-for-tat response in the escalating trade tensions between the two nations, with experts warning of higher costs for U.S. consumers and lower shipper profits. The dispute follows China’s expanded export restrictions and its addition of U.S. firm TechInsights to its “unreliable entities” list, further straining relations despite plans for a possible Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea.
• On 14/10/2025, Rising U.S.-China tensions underscore the growing mistrust between the world’s two largest economies. Following China’s Golden Week, Beijing unveiled new rare earth export restrictions, expanded its blacklist of U.S. firms, and imposed docking fees on U.S.-linked ships, prompting President Trump to threaten 100% tariffs in response. Analysts say both sides misread each other’s actions—Beijing sees U.S. export rules as escalating pressure, while Washington views China’s measures as leverage ahead of a potential Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC summit in South Korea. The standoff has rattled global markets, raising risks for chipmakers like Nvidia and Intel that may need Chinese export licenses. While both nations may seek short-term fixes, economists warn that trust has eroded deeply, making lasting resolution unlikely despite diplomatic opportunities before key trade measures take effect in November and December.
• On 15/10/2025, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled Tuesday that the Fed is nearing the end of its balance sheet reduction program and hinted that more interest rate cuts may be on the horizon as the labor market softens. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference, Powell said the Fed is approaching its goal of maintaining “ample” reserves and could halt quantitative tightening in the coming months, noting that further reductions may tighten liquidity too much. While he avoided giving a timeline for rate cuts, Powell acknowledged the growing risk of job losses, suggesting the Fed is balancing inflation control with employment stability. He reaffirmed that eliminating interest payments on reserves, as proposed by some lawmakers, would undermine the Fed’s ability to manage rates. Powell also confirmed that the economy remains resilient, with growth slightly stronger than expected, though recent gains in goods prices are mostly due to tariffs rather than inflationary pressures.
• U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said President Donald Trump could impose 100% tariffs on China as soon as Nov. 1 if Beijing proceeds with its new restrictions on rare earth exports, which threaten U.S. defense, tech, and auto industries. The move follows China’s announcement of sweeping export limits, prompting Trump to threaten tariffs that could effectively halt trade between the two nations. Despite tensions, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are still expected to meet at the APEC summit in Seoul later this month, though plans remain uncertain. Greer emphasized that the U.S. aims to reduce its reliance on China by reshoring supply chains but remains open to dialogue, saying “we want to work with the Chinese.” Rare earths are vital for manufacturing advanced technologies, and China currently dominates global production and refining, supplying around 70% of U.S. imports.
• On 17/10/2025, China accused the U.S. of exaggerating its rare earth export controls to create unnecessary panic but signaled openness to trade talks to ease tensions ahead of the planned Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea. Beijing said the restrictions are meant to protect national security and prevent military misuse, while accusing Washington of hypocrisy over its own semiconductor sanctions. The dispute has escalated after Trump threatened 100% tariffs on China starting Nov. 1 if the restrictions persist. Meanwhile, the U.S. is accelerating efforts to build a domestic rare earth supply chain, with the Department of Defense investing in MP Materials and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting further equity stakes to ensure self-sufficiency. Bessent also accused China of market manipulation and said the U.S. will use industrial policy and price floors to protect critical industries.
• Rising defaults among both individuals and companies are raising alarms about the broader health of the economy. While one unpaid bank loan may not matter much, a wave of defaults — including major bankruptcies like First Brands and Tricolor Holdings — is prompting concern across the global financial sector. Big banks such as JPMorgan, UBS, and Jefferies are now facing potential losses, with some U.S. regional banks also reporting loan troubles. Though these could be isolated cases, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that financial troubles often spread unseen, comparing them to “cockroaches.” The situation has revived fears of a wider credit crisis reminiscent of 2008, when bad loans triggered a global recession.
• On 21/10/2025, China’s economy grew 4.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, its slowest pace in a year but consistent with forecasts, as the ongoing property slump weighed heavily on growth. Fixed-asset investment unexpectedly fell 0.5% in the first nine months, marking the first contraction since 2020, while property investment plunged 13.9%. Analysts warned that weak real estate spending and sluggish private investment signal deeper structural challenges and eroding business confidence. Industrial production rose 6.5% in September, beating expectations, while retail sales increased 3%, showing modest consumer demand amid housing market weakness. Urban unemployment eased slightly to 5.2%, but overall deflationary pressure persisted as headline inflation dropped 0.3%. Despite resilient exports, economists say stabilizing the housing market and boosting private sector confidence are critical for sustaining growth.
• President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a framework agreement at the White House to boost cooperation on critical minerals and rare earths, outlining projects worth up to $8.5 billion. Albanese said the U.S. and Australia would jointly contribute $1 billion over the next six months, while a White House fact sheet cited more than $3 billion in planned investments and $2.2 billion in Export-Import Bank financing, unlocking up to $5 billion in total. The deal aims to reduce reliance on China’s rare earths supply chain, with joint projects including a Pentagon-backed gallium refinery in Western Australia and partnerships with companies like Alcoa and Japan. The announcement comes amid escalating U.S.-China tensions over rare earth export controls, with Trump threatening 100% tariffs on Chinese goods but expressing optimism ahead of his planned meeting with President Xi Jinping later this month.
• On 23/10/2025, The U.S. and India are reportedly close to a trade deal that could see Washington cutting tariffs on Indian exports from 50% to around 15–16%, while India considers reducing its Russian oil imports and raising its U.S. corn import quota. The talks, part of efforts to rebuild strained ties, follow Trump’s earlier tariff hikes penalizing India for buying Russian oil. Although Modi has not confirmed changes to India’s oil policy, both leaders have discussed cooperation on trade and security. Sensitive areas like agriculture and energy still need political approval before the deal’s announcement, which could occur at the ASEAN summit. Bilateral trade has reached a record $132.2 billion in fiscal 2025, with India’s exports to the U.S. up 11.6% to $86.5 billion.
• On 24/10/2025, U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on Oct. 30 during the APEC Summit in South Korea, marking their first in-person meeting since 2019 as both nations attempt to ease escalating trade tensions. The high-stakes talks come ahead of a Nov. 10 trade truce deadline and Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods set for Nov. 1. Analysts say the meeting signals a potential de-escalation, with China likely to offer concessions such as agricultural purchases or rare earth access, while the U.S. may ease some tech restrictions. Ongoing disputes over tariffs, rare earth exports, fentanyl, and Taiwan remain unresolved, but both sides appear eager to “reset” relations and revive trade negotiations rather than finalize a sweeping deal.
• Japan’s core inflation rose to 2.9% in September, up from 2.7% in August and matching expectations, marking the first acceleration since May. Headline inflation also climbed to 2.9%, remaining above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, while the “core-core” rate, excluding both food and energy, eased to 3%. The data comes as new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi faces mounting pressure to address persistent inflation, which has exceeded the BOJ’s target for 41 consecutive months and is straining retirees and fixed-income households. Analysts warn that if inflation stays above 2% in the coming months, public support for Takaichi’s government could falter. She is reportedly preparing a ¥13.9 trillion ($92 billion) stimulus package to support households, boost growth industries, and strengthen national security.
• On 25/10/2025, U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in September, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 0.3% monthly and 3% annually, slightly below forecasts of 0.4% and 3.1%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% on the month and 3% year-over-year, signaling easing inflation pressures and strengthening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. The largest driver was a 4.1% rise in gasoline prices, while food prices climbed 0.2%. Shelter costs rose just 0.2%, and used vehicle prices fell 0.4%. Analysts said the softer inflation data, the only major release during the government shutdown, reassured investors that inflation remains under control.
• Ontario Premier Doug Ford responded to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to terminate trade negotiations with Canada after Trump accused Ontario of misusing a Ronald Reagan speech in an ad criticizing tariffs. The Reagan Foundation claimed the ad edited Reagan’s 1987 remarks without permission, though the clip accurately showed him defending free trade while omitting his justification for tariffs on Japan. Ford countered by sharing the full Reagan video in which the former president warned that tariffs lead to trade wars and higher prices, emphasizing that “Canada and the United States are friends, neighbours and allies.” Trump, however, argued the ad falsely portrayed Reagan’s views and alleged it aimed to sway a pending Supreme Court case that could affect his tariff policies.
• On 26/10/2025, Former President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff increase on Canadian imports, accusing Canada of airing a misleading TV ad featuring Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. Trump called the ad a “fraudulent” misrepresentation and said it prompted him to raise tariffs beyond the current 35% rate, with some goods already facing higher duties under trade exceptions. The controversy centers on Ontario’s ad, which used edited clips of Reagan’s 1987 speech without full context about his own tariff actions on Japan. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he would pause the ad on Monday to allow trade talks to resume but continued airing it during the World Series weekend, where Toronto’s Blue Jays faced the Los Angeles Dodgers. Trump criticized Ontario for delaying the pause, calling it “dirty play,” and justified his tariff hike as retaliation for Canada’s “hostile act.”
• U.S. President Donald Trump embarked on a five-day trip to Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea to pursue trade, mineral, and ceasefire deals, with a potential but uncertain meeting with China’s Xi Jinping looming as the centerpiece. The visit comes amid ongoing trade tensions, tariff hikes, and threats to restrict exchanges of key minerals and technologies between Washington and Beijing. While both sides have downplayed expectations of major breakthroughs, a limited agreement involving tariff relief or Chinese purchases of U.S. goods remains possible. Trump also aims to maintain the fragile Israel-Gaza ceasefire and address regional conflicts, including a planned Thailand-Cambodia truce signing in Malaysia. His agenda includes meetings with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and, potentially, Xi in South Korea, where trade, Taiwan, and China’s ties with Russia are expected to dominate talks. Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 155% if no deal is reached and said he plans to raise the issue of jailed Hong Kong activist Jimmy Lai during his discussions.
• On 27/10/2025, President Donald Trump kicked off his Asian tour in Malaysia by announcing several trade deals and witnessing the signing of a Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire he helped broker. During the ASEAN summit, he secured agreements with Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, including critical mineral partnerships, and began tariff talks with Brazil. U.S. and Chinese negotiators also outlined a framework to ease trade tensions ahead of Trump’s meeting with China’s Xi Jinping, as both sides sought to avoid new U.S. tariffs set for November 1.
• On 29/10/2025, Australia’s inflation rose to 3.2% in the third quarter, its fastest pace in over a year and above expectations of 3%, driven by higher housing, recreation, and transport costs, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The trimmed mean inflation also climbed to 3% from 2.7%, marking its first rise since 2022. The data pushed inflation beyond the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2%–3% target band, dampening hopes of near-term rate cuts. Analysts said the figures suggest disinflation is stalling, with the RBA likely to hold rates at 3.6% through December amid persistent price pressures and stagflation concerns.
• Amazon is set to announce its largest-ever corporate layoffs on Tuesday, cutting up to 30,000 jobs across nearly all business divisions, according to reports. The move, part of CEO Andy Jassy’s cost-cutting and restructuring campaign, follows previous layoffs that have already affected over 27,000 workers since 2022. Amazon, which employs about 350,000 corporate staff globally, is streamlining operations and reducing management layers amid rising use of generative AI, which Jassy said will likely shrink the workforce further. The cuts mark the biggest in the tech industry since 2020, as companies like Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Intel also trim staff amid automation and cost pressures.
• On 30/10/2025, Australia’s inflation jumped to 3.2% in the September quarter, up from 2.1% in June, exceeding expectations and dampening hopes of an interest rate cut next week. Headline inflation rose 1.3% in the quarter, driven mainly by a 9% surge in electricity costs following annual price reviews and the expiry of government rebates, leading to a 23.6% annual rise in electricity prices. The RBA’s preferred “trimmed mean” measure also climbed from 2.7% to 3%, above its forecast of 2.6% by year-end, prompting economists to suggest the central bank is unlikely to loosen policy further.
• The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second time in a row, lowering its benchmark rate to 3.75–4% and announcing plans to end quantitative tightening on December 1. The decision passed 10–2, with dissenters split over whether to move faster or hold rates steady. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that another cut in December is not guaranteed, citing differing views among policymakers. The move comes amid limited economic data due to a government shutdown, with inflation still above target and job growth slowing. Despite the rate cut, markets reacted negatively to Powell’s cautious tone, while the Fed’s balance sheet reduction will conclude after trimming $2.3 trillion from its $6.6 trillion holdings.
• Japan’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% in its first meeting under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, despite inflation remaining above 2% for 41 consecutive months. The 7–2 decision saw two board members propose a rate hike, but the Bank of Japan maintained its cautious stance, signaling gradual policy moves ahead. Markets reacted mildly, with the yen slightly weaker and the Nikkei up 0.4%. The decision follows U.S. criticism over Japan’s weak yen, which Washington views as a trade advantage. Takaichi, a supporter of Abenomics and looser monetary policy, faces pressure to balance fiscal stimulus with calls to strengthen the yen. Analysts expect any future hikes to be gradual as Japan grapples with weak exports and currency volatility.
• On 31/10/2025, A day after reaching a deal with the U.S. to roll back tariffs, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged Asia-Pacific nations to support free trade and safeguard supply chain stability at the APEC summit in South Korea. Xi called for unity amid global turbulence, outlining five areas for cooperation — open trade, stable supply chains, green and digital growth, and inclusive development. While avoiding direct mention of the U.S., he emphasized expanding rather than decoupling supply chains, contrasting Washington’s push to reshore manufacturing. Following the recent thaw, which saw tariff cuts and eased export controls, Xi reaffirmed China’s commitment to market openness and regional investment, as Chinese companies increasingly expand across Asia.
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