Portfolio Update – June 2025

General news

• On 02/06/2025, China has rejected U.S. claims of violating the Geneva trade agreement, instead accusing Washington of breaching the deal by tightening export restrictions and revoking Chinese student visas. Beijing criticized these moves as undermining the recently reached 90-day tariff suspension and warned of retaliatory actions to protect its interests. Tensions escalated after President Trump accused China of completely breaking the agreement, prompting China to assert it has upheld its commitments. Talks between the two nations remain stalled, with both sides hinting at a potential Trump-Xi call to move discussions forward. Meanwhile, broader U.S.-China tensions are rising, including military disputes, as China condemned recent remarks by the U.S. defense secretary as provocative and harmful to regional stability.
• OPEC+ has confirmed a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July, continuing its strategy to regain market share and discipline over-producing members like Iraq and Kazakhstan. This follows previous hikes in May and June, totaling a 1.37 million bpd increase since April as part of an effort to unwind a 2.2 million bpd cut. Despite falling crude prices — with Brent and WTI both dropping around 0.34% — OPEC+ justifies the boost by citing healthy market fundamentals and rising summer demand. The move, driven by Saudi Arabia and Russia, puts pressure on rivals like U.S. shale producers and signals a shift from prioritizing price to focusing on volume. Some members, including Algeria, had requested a pause, but the group maintained its course amid expectations that the market can absorb the extra supply.
• On 03/06/2025, China’s manufacturing activity contracted sharply in May, with the Caixin/S&P Global PMI falling to 48.3—its lowest level since September 2022—amid slumping export orders and deepening domestic headwinds. The downturn, driven by declining foreign demand and rising inventories, underscores growing pressure on the economy as U.S. tariffs weigh on trade. Employment fell for the second month, and sales dropped despite government efforts to stimulate growth. While exports to Southeast Asia rose, U.S. trade tensions and a property market slump continue to drag on overall performance. Analysts expect Beijing to introduce more aggressive measures to support consumption and stabilize the economy.
• On 04/06/2025, U.S.–China trade tensions remain high as President Donald Trump called President Xi Jinping “extremely hard to make a deal with,” despite expectations of a potential call between the two leaders this week. Trade talks have stalled following a May 12 agreement to suspend most tariffs for 90 days, with the U.S. criticizing China for failing to ease rare earth export restrictions and China opposing new U.S. tech limits and visa revocations. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged cooperation in a meeting with U.S. Ambassador David Perdue, signaling cautious openness to dialogue if the U.S. avoids public surprises.
• Euro zone inflation dropped to 1.9% in May, below the European Central Bank’s 2% target and economists’ 2% forecast, driven by a sharp decline in services inflation to 3.2% and core inflation easing to 2.3%. This reinforces the view that April’s spike was temporary. The data comes ahead of the ECB’s rate decision, with markets already expecting a 25-basis-point cut. Analysts say the new figures also support another rate cut in July. Meanwhile, concerns over U.S. tariffs under President Trump are clouding the global outlook, though the OECD still projects 1% euro area growth and 2.2% inflation for 2025.
• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that despite the drag from U.S. tariffs under President Trump, Japan’s economy is resilient enough—supported by strong corporate profits and a tight labor market—to sustain inflation and wage growth, allowing for potential future rate hikes. While acknowledging that trade uncertainty is weighing on sentiment, investment, and exports, Ueda reaffirmed the BOJ’s view that inflation will gradually approach its 2% target. He emphasized that progress toward this goal continues despite recent economic contraction and downgraded forecasts, but did not commit to a timeline for the next rate increase.
• On 05/06/2025, Private sector job growth in the U.S. slowed sharply in May, with ADP reporting just 37,000 new jobs—its weakest reading since March 2023 and well below forecasts—highlighting signs of a softening labor market. Manufacturing and small businesses saw job losses, while gains in leisure, hospitality, and financial activities offered limited support. Wage growth remained steady at 4.5% for job stayers and 7% for changers. The data, coming ahead of the official jobs report, prompted renewed calls from President Trump for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, citing economic concerns and comparisons to rate cuts in Europe.
• President Donald Trump said he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin for over an hour about Ukraine’s recent airstrike on Russian bombers and Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Trump reported that Putin vowed retaliation for the attack, though the conversation did not lead to immediate peace. The two also discussed Iran’s nuclear program, with Trump insisting Tehran must not acquire nuclear weapons and noting Putin offered to help expedite talks. Despite Trump’s past promises to swiftly end the Russia-Ukraine war, little progress has been made, and tensions persist. Trump’s stance on Putin has also become more critical, calling him “absolutely CRAZY” in recent remarks.
• On 06/06/2025, President Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk clashed publicly after Trump threatened to cancel government contracts and subsidies for Musk’s companies over his criticism of a major tax and budget bill. Musk responded defiantly, announcing plans to decommission SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft and accusing Trump of ingratitude, claiming he helped secure Trump’s election. The feud escalated with Musk calling for Trump’s impeachment and alleging, without evidence, that Trump is linked to sealed Epstein records. Trump fired back, claiming he had asked Musk to step down from a government role, which Musk denied. The dispute triggered a sharp drop in Tesla’s stock.
• President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a 90-minute call focused mainly on trade, agreeing to resume negotiations soon amid ongoing tensions. Trump described the call as “very good” and “positive,” with U.S. officials Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, and Jamieson Greer set to lead the renewed talks. Although both sides had temporarily eased tariffs after a May meeting, the U.S. accused China of delaying rare earth exports, while China criticized recent U.S. visa restrictions and semiconductor warnings. Trump said no discussions were held on Russia, Ukraine, or Iran, and noted Xi invited him and First Lady Melania Trump to visit China.
• The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2%—its first rate trim since mid-2023—amid easing inflation, lower energy prices, and a stronger euro. The decision, supported by all but one governing council member, follows euro zone inflation dipping to 1.9% in May, below the ECB’s 2% target. Revised forecasts now expect average inflation at 2% in 2025, down from 2.3%, while core inflation for 2024 was slightly raised to 2.4%. Despite a modest 0.3% GDP growth in Q1 2025, which may be revised upward, the ECB left its full-year growth outlook unchanged at 0.9%. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted inflation uncertainty remains high, and future rate moves are unclear. Trade tensions, particularly from U.S. tariffs under President Trump, pose risks to euro zone exports and growth, while EU retaliatory measures remain on hold. Analysts are divided on whether another rate cut will follow, with some calling for patience and others urging further easing amid softening inflation.
• On 07/06/2025, U.S. job growth slowed slightly in May, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 139,000—above expectations but down from April’s revised 147,000—while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and broader underemployment remained at 7.8%. Wages rose more than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% monthly and 3.9% annually. Health care led job gains with 62,000 additions, followed by leisure and hospitality, while government jobs declined by 22,000 amid workforce cuts tied to Trump and Musk’s efficiency drive. Despite stronger-than-expected headline figures, troubling signs included large downward revisions to prior months and a sharp drop in full-time employment per the household survey. The report comes amid growing economic uncertainty due to Trump’s tariffs and inflation risks, prompting the Fed to maintain a cautious stance ahead of its upcoming policy meeting.
• On 08/06/2025, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, along with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, will meet Chinese officials in London on Monday for renewed trade talks, President Trump announced. The meeting follows a call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, amid ongoing tensions from a prolonged trade war. Although both nations eased tariffs after talks in Geneva, disputes persist over issues such as Chinese semiconductor use, student visa revocations, and delays in rare earth exports. Trump expressed optimism about the talks, despite Beijing’s accusations of U.S. backpedaling.
• China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), recently conducted a 1-trillion-yuan (~$139 billion) outright reverse repo operation with a three-month term to ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system. Introduced in October 2024, these monthly operations help manage short-term market stability. The latest move, executed via interest-rate and multiple-price bidding, aims to stabilize money markets and guide expectations. The PBOC also uses other tools like temporary repos, reverse repos, and treasury bond transactions as part of its broader monetary policy strategy.
• On 09/06/2025, President Donald Trump announced that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, along with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, will meet Chinese officials in London on Monday to resume trade talks. This follows a recent call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping and comes amid ongoing tensions in the U.S.-China trade war. Although tariffs were temporarily eased after prior talks in Geneva, disputes have continued, including U.S. warnings on Chinese semiconductors and visa revocations for Chinese students, while Washington accuses Beijing of delaying rare earth exports. Trump expressed optimism about the upcoming meeting.
• President Donald Trump has no plans to speak with Tesla CEO Elon Musk to resolve their public feud, according to senior White House officials. The clash escalated after Musk criticized Trump’s proposed tax bill, prompting Trump to call Musk “crazy” and threaten federal contracts with SpaceX. Musk responded by claiming his financial support was crucial to Trump’s election and accused him of being ungrateful and dishonest. While Trump said he won’t be speaking to Musk anytime soon and wished him well, the White House confirmed no call is scheduled, though one official expressed hope for de-escalation.
• China’s export growth in May slowed to 4.8%, missing expectations due to a steep 34.5% drop in shipments to the U.S.—the sharpest since early 2020—amid ongoing trade tensions. Imports fell 3.4%, worse than forecast, reflecting weak domestic demand. Despite this, strong exports to Southeast Asia, the EU, and Africa helped China’s trade surplus rise 25% to $103.2 billion. Rare earth exports fell 5.7% as Beijing tightened controls during negotiations with the U.S., while car and ship exports rose, and electronics declined. Analysts expect U.S.-bound exports to recover in June following tariff reductions agreed in Geneva. However, renewed tensions—including disputes over critical minerals, chip restrictions, and student visas—threaten progress ahead of a second round of talks in London.
• U.S.-China trade talks resumed in London on Tuesday following a call between Presidents Trump and Xi, with hopes of easing tensions after months of tariff disputes. Top U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, are negotiating potential easing of export restrictions on chip software and engine parts, while seeking assurance from China to resume critical mineral exports. Despite temporary tariff cuts agreed in Geneva, both sides continue to accuse each other of violations, with new restrictions on student visas and chip exports further straining ties. Analysts warn the talks are unlikely to yield quick resolutions, framing the standoff as a broader geopolitical struggle over technology, defense, and economic power in the digital era.
• On 11/06/2025, The U.S. and China have reached a preliminary trade agreement following two days of high-level talks in London, aiming to implement the Geneva consensus and a recent call between Presidents Trump and Xi. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and China’s Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang confirmed the framework, which includes easing U.S. tech export restrictions in exchange for renewed Chinese rare-earth exports. However, final approval now depends on both presidents. Analysts caution that unresolved issues and mutual leverage—not shared values—underpin the deal, leaving room for future disruptions. Markets remained cautious as investors awaited more details.
• On 12/06/2025, U.S. consumer prices rose just 0.1% in May, with annual inflation at 2.4%, slightly below expectations, as President Trump’s tariffs had yet to significantly impact inflation. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also came in softer than forecast at 0.1% monthly and 2.8% annually. Weak energy prices, particularly a 2.6% drop in gasoline, helped offset increases in food and shelter. Despite tariff concerns, vehicle and apparel prices declined. Real average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and 1.4% year over year. Markets responded positively, while Vice President JD Vance reiterated calls for the Fed to cut interest rates.
• President Trump declared the U.S.-China trade war “done,” with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirming that Chinese tariffs will remain at a stacked 55% rate, without further hikes. Despite the resolution, industry leaders warn the steep tariffs will continue to strain supply chains, U.S. businesses, and consumers. Logistics and retail executives argue most companies lack the margins to absorb such costs, leading to higher prices or layoffs. Critics say the tariffs will hit American families, especially ahead of the back-to-school and holiday seasons. While the deal awaits final approval from Trump and President Xi, uncertainty remains, affecting not only U.S. imports but also EU trade prospects.
• On 13/06/2025, U.S. producer price inflation remained subdued in May, rising just 0.1%—below expectations—as tariffs have yet to drive up costs significantly for consumers or businesses. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.1%. The data, following similarly mild consumer inflation figures, suggests price pressures are still modest but could increase later this year as companies respond to margin pressures. Goods prices excluding food and energy rose 0.2%, while service prices edged up 0.1%, mainly due to higher wholesaler margins. With key PPI components feeding into the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge, the soft May numbers signal continued inflation restraint, even as companies face uncertainty from Trump’s evolving trade policies.
• Israel launched overnight airstrikes on Iran early Friday, targeting sites linked to Iran’s nuclear program and killing IRGC commander Hossein Salami and two senior nuclear scientists, according to Iranian media. In response, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei vowed revenge, while Israel declared a state of emergency, anticipating missile and drone retaliation. Prime Minister Netanyahu warned Israelis of prolonged sheltering. Strikes hit key cities, including Tehran, Natanz, Khandab, and Khoramabad. Oil prices surged over 8%, and U.S. stock futures dropped sharply amid fears of wider conflict. The U.S. was not involved but was briefed, with Secretary of State Rubio emphasizing protection of American personnel.
• Crude oil prices surged by as much as 13% Thursday after Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities without U.S. backing, marking the largest single-day gains since 2020. Brent rose to $75.79 and WTI to $74.64 per barrel. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed strikes on Natanz and key Iranian defense targets, declaring the operation would continue until the threat was neutralized. The U.S., while distancing itself from the action, warned Iran not to retaliate against American interests. Iran’s response remains uncertain, especially after reports of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami’s death. Analysts warn the conflict could escalate, risking major oil supply disruptions, and pushing up fuel prices globally, which could pose political challenges for President Trump.
• On 14/06/2025, Iran launched a major retaliatory missile attack on Israel early Saturday, prompting Israel to activate its Iron Dome defense system and warn citizens to seek shelter. Air defenses were also triggered in Tehran as tensions escalated following Israel’s earlier strike on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. The U.S., while denying involvement in Israel’s initial operation, is now assisting by intercepting Iranian projectiles using naval and ground-based missile systems. President Trump confirmed prior knowledge of Israel’s actions and expressed support, citing American military equipment used in the defense. Iran’s state media declared the operation a “powerful and decisive response,” warning of continued retaliation. The conflict has rattled global markets, with U.S. stock indices falling sharply amid fears of broader regional war.
• On 15/06/2025, The U.S. dollar rebounded on Friday after reaching a three-year low, driven by a surge in safe-haven demand following Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, which escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Dollar Index rose 0.3% as investors moved away from riskier assets, with the dollar even gaining against traditional havens like the yen and Swiss franc. Analysts cited the conflict and spiking oil prices—up as much as 13%—as key factors behind the dollar’s strength, with inflation concerns dampening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, gold also rose sharply, and global markets saw broad risk-off reactions, reflecting fears of prolonged regional instability.
• On 16/06/2025, China’s retail sales surged by 6.4% year-on-year in May—the fastest pace since late 2023—thanks to government subsidies and a consumer goods trade-in program, offering a temporary boost to the struggling economy. This growth exceeded analyst expectations and provided relief amid ongoing deflation and sluggish domestic demand. However, industrial output and fixed-asset investment slowed, with property investment plunging 10.7% in the first five months of 2025. Analysts warn that falling real estate prices may weaken consumer sentiment despite stronger consumption trends. Exports remained resilient overall, though shipments to the U.S. fell sharply by over 34%, even as sales to other global markets helped cushion the blow. A temporary U.S.-China tariff truce offered short-term relief, but core economic challenges persist. Meanwhile, May’s unemployment rate dropped slightly to 5.0%, the lowest since November 2024, and analysts suggest Beijing may delay further stimulus as GDP growth looks set to surpass 5% for the first half of the year.
• On 17/06/2025, Oil prices fell over 1% on Monday as Iran signaled a willingness to negotiate a ceasefire with Israel, easing fears of further conflict. U.S. crude settled at $71.77 and Brent at $73.23, retreating from Friday’s surge after Israeli strikes on Iranian energy sites. While tensions remain, Iran is reportedly open to nuclear talks and has asked regional powers to mediate. Analysts are divided on the outlook—some expect limited escalation, while others warn the conflict could still threaten key oil infrastructure, including the critical Strait of Hormuz.
• Gold has outshined traditional safe havens in 2025, soaring 30% and surpassing assets like the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. Treasurys amid growing global uncertainty and concerns over U.S. fiscal stability. Experts at the Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference highlight gold’s unique appeal as it carries no government liability, unlike sovereign bonds or currencies. While safe haven currencies rose and U.S. bond yields dipped, gold reached record highs above $3,500 in April. Recent U.S. policy volatility, including tariffs and credit downgrades, has further eroded confidence in Treasurys, fueling demand for gold as a more reliable refuge.
• G7 leaders expressed unified support for Israel amid its escalating conflict with Iran, affirming Israel’s right to self-defense and condemning Iran as a key source of regional instability. In a joint statement, they emphasized that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons and called for broader de-escalation, including a ceasefire in Gaza. U.S. President Trump skipped the summit’s second day due to the crisis. The summit, which also addressed global tariffs and the Ukraine conflict, highlighted divisions with China, which criticized Israel’s actions and offered to mediate tensions between Iran and Israel.
• On 18/06/2025, President Donald Trump is weighing a potential U.S. military strike against Iran amid escalating tensions with Israel, demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and warning Ayatollah Khamenei that he’s an “easy target.” After meeting with top national security advisors, Trump hinted at direct intervention to support Israel, despite previous claims of non-involvement. Reports suggest he’s considering targeting Iran’s underground nuclear facility at Fordo using America’s most powerful bunker-busting bomb. The Pentagon has already increased its military presence in the Middle East, while markets reacted to the rising tensions with falling U.S. stocks and surging oil prices.
• U.K. inflation held steady at 3.4% in May, matching expectations and correcting an earlier April overstatement caused by car tax data errors. Core inflation eased to 3.5% from 3.8%, with falling transport costs offset by price increases in food and household goods. The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates at 4.25% in its upcoming meeting, with a potential 25 basis point cut anticipated in August. Despite stable headline inflation, elevated services inflation and geopolitical tensions—particularly rising oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict—could push inflation slightly higher in the coming months.
• The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced it will slow the pace of its government bond purchase cuts starting April 2026, while keeping its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% amid rising economic risks. It plans to reduce monthly JGB purchases to 3 trillion yen by March 2026 and then gradually to 2 trillion yen by March 2027. The decision, aimed at stabilizing bond markets, comes as inflation remains above target and economic growth shows signs of weakening, with Japan’s GDP contracting 0.2% in Q1. The BOJ also indicated future rate hikes depend on more consistent inflation near its 2% goal.
• On 19/06/2025, President Donald Trump convened a second national security meeting in the White House Situation Room on Wednesday to weigh a potential U.S. military strike on Iran amid its escalating conflict with Israel. While emphasizing he hadn’t made a decision, Trump suggested Iran was under pressure and open to negotiations, hinting at an “ultimate ultimatum.” Preparations for evacuating Americans from Israel are underway, with flights and cruise ships being arranged. Despite Iran denying outreach, Trump claimed Iranian officials had requested a meeting. Meanwhile, Iran warned of severe consequences if attacked, following Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities, which reportedly damaged centrifuge production sites.
• On 20/06/2025, Oil prices surged around 3% on Thursday as Israel intensified military strikes on Iran, targeting strategic and government sites in Tehran following a missile attack on a hospital in Beersheba. Brent crude rose to $78.85 per barrel, its highest since January, while U.S. crude peaked at $77.58. Defense Minister Katz suggested Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei could be targeted, escalating tensions. President Trump is weighing a U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, with a decision expected within two weeks. JPMorgan warned that regime change in Iran could trigger sustained high oil prices due to potential long-term supply disruptions.
• The Bank of England kept interest rates steady at 4.25% on Thursday, with six of nine policymakers voting to hold and three favoring a 25-basis-point cut. The central bank cited weak GDP growth, a loosening labor market, and moderating pay increases as reasons for caution. It noted persistent global uncertainties, including Middle East conflict and U.S. tariff risks, which could drive inflation higher. With May inflation at 3.4%—still above the 2% target—the BOE signaled that any rate cuts will be gradual and data-dependent, likely delaying the next move until at least August.
• President Donald Trump has granted a 90-day extension, until September 17, 2025, for ByteDance to sell TikTok to a U.S. buyer, allowing the app to continue operating in the U.S. while a deal is finalized. The move reflects a shift from Trump’s earlier stance during his first term, when he attempted to ban the app over national security concerns. The White House emphasized the goal of ensuring American users’ data remains secure. Despite interest from buyers including Amazon, Frank McCourt’s team, and Perplexity AI, no sale has been completed, especially after recent U.S. tariffs on China. ByteDance’s stance on a sale remains unclear.
• The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 0% on Thursday, citing reduced inflationary pressure and signaling continued close monitoring to maintain price stability. This move, widely expected by markets, comes as Switzerland battles deflation, with consumer prices falling 0.1% in May. The SNB lowered its inflation forecasts to 0.2% for 2025 and 0.5% for 2026, while acknowledging the risks posed by global economic uncertainty and the strong Swiss franc, which suppresses import prices. Though negative rates aren’t imminent, the SNB hasn’t ruled them out, with analysts warning they could return if inflation remains weak — potentially reaching as low as -0.75%, though such a move would be taken cautiously due to associated risks to savers, banks, and financial stability.
• Japan’s rice prices surged 101.7% year-over-year in May — the sharpest rise in over 50 years — following similar spikes in March and April, driving core inflation to 3.7%, its highest since early 2023. Rice now accounts for about half of Japan’s core inflation, prompting the government to release emergency stockpiles. Despite the Bank of Japan keeping rates at 0.5%, it signaled readiness to raise them once underlying inflation stabilizes near 2%. Analysts expect food-driven inflation to ease in the coming months, though Middle East tensions may pressure energy prices. Meanwhile, Japan’s economy shrank 0.2% in Q1 due to falling exports.
• On 21/06/2025, Top diplomats from the U.K., France, and Germany are pushing for last-minute diplomatic talks with Iran in Geneva, aiming to de-escalate tensions as the U.S. considers joining Israel’s military campaign against Tehran. The conflict, sparked by Iran-backed Hamas’ 2023 attack on Israel, has intensified, with Israel vowing to continue strikes until Iran’s nuclear threat is dismantled. While President Trump said he will decide within two weeks on potential U.S. military action, Iran’s foreign minister rejected negotiations until Israeli attacks cease. European leaders hope diplomacy can avoid a broader war, recalling past failures in Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq.
• On 22/06/2025, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. military has conducted airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites — Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — marking the first direct American involvement in Israel’s ongoing campaign to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. The strikes, reportedly carried out by U.S. B-2 stealth bombers using heavy bunker-buster bombs, targeted deeply buried enrichment facilities, though Iran has not officially confirmed the attacks. Trump hailed the mission as successful and historic, declaring all aircraft had exited Iranian airspace safely and demanding Iran end the conflict, warning of further escalation amid rising regional tensions.
• On 23/06/2025, Oil markets face heightened uncertainty and potential price surges after the U.S. entered the Iran-Israel conflict by striking Iranian nuclear sites. Analysts warn of severe supply disruptions and triple-digit oil prices, especially if Iran retaliates by closing the Strait of Hormuz — a vital channel for nearly 20 million barrels of daily oil shipments. While Brent and WTI crude rose over 2% in early trading, experts caution the real risk lies in prolonged disruptions, with even partial harassment of the strait capable of sharply raising prices. Some analysts predict crude could exceed $100 if Gulf infrastructure is attacked or access remains blocked.
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to pressure Iran not to close the Strait of Hormuz, warning it would be “economic suicide” since Iran’s own oil exports, mainly to China, rely on the route. This follows Iran’s threat to block the strait in response to U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear sites. While Iran’s parliament expressed support, the final decision rests with its national security council. Analysts warn that a prolonged closure could push oil prices above $100 per barrel and severely disrupt global energy trade, with experts cautioning the U.S. Navy may take weeks, not days, to restore passage.
• On 24/06/2025, Tesla’s Model Y robotaxi officially launched in Austin, Texas, over the weekend, offering limited autonomous rides by invitation and pushing Tesla shares up 8% on Monday. CEO Elon Musk praised the in-house AI and chip teams behind the project, noting a flat $4.20 fare per ride. While early users reported smooth rides, critics observed safety concerns, including wrong-way driving and abrupt braking. Tesla faces stiff competition from Waymo and Chinese firms like Apollo Go, which have already logged millions of driverless rides. Despite calls from lawmakers to delay the rollout, Tesla plans to expand the service to Los Angeles and San Francisco, aiming for up to a million self-driving cars in the U.S. by the end of 2026.
• Iran launched a missile strike on the U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday, in retaliation for American attacks on its nuclear facilities. Explosions were reported over Doha, but Qatar’s Defense Ministry said its air defenses intercepted the missiles and no casualties occurred. U.S. officials, including President Trump, monitored the situation from the White House, while reports indicated Iran may have also targeted American bases in Iraq. Qatar condemned the attack as a violation of its sovereignty and international law, warning it reserves the right to respond. Crude oil prices dipped following the news.
• Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Monday she would support an interest rate cut at the Fed’s July meeting if inflation remains subdued, echoing recent comments by Governor Christopher Waller. Speaking in Prague, Bowman noted that President Trump’s tariffs are having a muted effect on prices and suggested the current policy rate may be too restrictive given labor market conditions. She emphasized the need to bring rates closer to neutral to sustain economic momentum. Although Trump has called for deep rate cuts, Bowman and others have signaled a more cautious approach, with markets expecting the next move likely by September.
• Iran launched a missile strike on the U.S. Al-Udeid military base in Qatar on Monday in retaliation for U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Explosions were reported over Doha, but Qatar’s defense systems intercepted the missiles, with no casualties reported. The attack comes amid rising tensions, with Iran also reportedly targeting U.S. sites in Iraq. Qatar condemned the strike as a violation of its sovereignty and international law, warning of a potential response. President Trump and top U.S. military officials monitored the situation from the White House, while crude oil prices briefly dipped following the news.
• On 25/06/2025, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress the Fed will hold interest rates steady until it better understands the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on inflation, which remains above the central bank’s 2% target. While Powell described the economy and labor market as strong, he emphasized a cautious approach amid ongoing policy uncertainty, saying more summer data is needed before considering rate cuts. He dismissed Trump’s public criticism, affirming the Fed’s independence. Inflation is projected to rise modestly in May, and while some Fed officials favor a rate cut in July, futures markets show a higher likelihood of action in September.
• Oil prices plunged to their lowest levels in over a week after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, easing fears of supply disruptions in the region. Brent crude fell 3.76% to $68.79 a barrel, while WTI dropped 3.94% to $65.46. The ceasefire, which began with Iran and was set to be followed by Israel after 12 hours, aims to end the 12-day conflict. Analysts noted that the risk premium priced into oil last week has now dissipated, with Iran—OPEC’s third-largest producer—expected to maintain stable exports. The sharp decline followed a previous session where prices had surged on concerns over U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
• Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation slowed more than expected in May, with headline CPI rising just 2.1% year-on-year—below forecasts of 2.3% and down from April’s 2.4%—marking its slowest pace in seven months. Underlying inflation, measured by trimmed mean CPI, fell to 2.4%, its lowest since November 2021, while CPI excluding volatile items edged down to 2.7%. The decline was largely attributed to falling electricity prices amid ongoing government rebates, along with weaker business activity and subdued consumer spending. With inflation now well within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target range, the data increases the likelihood of further interest rate cuts after two reductions in 2025, which brought the cash rate to 3.85%.
• On 26/06/2025, The U.S. economy shrank at a revised annual rate of 0.5% in Q1 2025, a sharper contraction than the previously estimated 0.2%, largely due to weaker consumer spending and trade distortions from President Trump’s tariffs. Consumer spending was downgraded to a 0.5% increase from 1.2%, while domestic demand also softened. A surge in imports ahead of tariff implementation weighed heavily on GDP, although economists expect a 3.4% rebound in Q2, cautioning that it may not signal true economic strength. Gross domestic income rose 0.2% after initially being reported as negative, lifting the average of GDP and GDI—known as gross domestic output—to a revised 0.1% decline.
• The U.S. and China have reached a new agreement to expedite rare earth shipments to the U.S., signaling progress in easing trade tensions between the two nations. The deal, part of ongoing efforts following trade talks in Geneva, includes a framework to implement China’s pledge to lift non-tariff countermeasures imposed since April 2. In retaliation for U.S. tariffs, China had previously restricted exports of critical minerals vital to industries such as automotive, aerospace, semiconductors, and defense. The new understanding aims to restore supply chains, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirming China’s commitment to deliver rare earths, after which the U.S. will ease its countermeasures. The agreement also reportedly includes U.S. allowances for Chinese students, though enforcement details remain limited and underline the broader complexities still facing a comprehensive U.S.-China trade deal.
• The EU is prepared to finalize a trade deal with the U.S. ahead of President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline but is also ready to defend its interests if talks fail, according to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. While Germany supports a quick deal to protect exports, France warns against an unequal agreement that could harm EU competitiveness. The bloc has paused tariffs on €21 billion in U.S. goods and is considering targeted retaliatory measures on up to €95 billion more. Meanwhile, the U.S. has shown limited interest in the EU’s offer of zero tariffs on industrial goods, and tensions persist over EU digital regulations.
• Nike reported better-than-expected earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter despite a 12% drop in revenue and a sharp decline in profit, as it faces major costs from its ongoing turnaround and new U.S. tariffs. The company expects a $1 billion tariff-related cost in fiscal 2026 but plans to offset it through supply chain shifts, partner coordination, and price hikes, reducing its China manufacturing footprint from 16% to high single digits. CFO Matt Friend said gross margins will be impacted by 0.75 percentage points, mostly in the first half of the year. Nike maintains that the worst is over, with headwinds expected to ease, and CEO Elliott Hill said the company is ready to “turn the page” and focus on improving results.
• China’s industrial profits fell 9.1% in May year-on-year — the steepest drop since October 2024 — highlighting the limited impact of Beijing’s stimulus efforts. Cumulative profits dipped 1.1% for the first five months of 2025, with sharp declines in mining (-29%) and automotive (-11.9%), and modest gains in manufacturing and utilities. The drop is attributed to weak domestic demand and falling industrial prices, with price wars eroding margins despite a retail recovery. While GDP growth remains strong at 5.2%, exceeding Beijing’s target, economists say further stimulus is unlikely unless deeper economic stress or U.S.-China trade tensions emerge.
• On 28/06/2025, U.S. inflation rose modestly in May, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index up 0.1% monthly and 2.3% annually, in line with expectations and slightly above the Fed’s 2% target. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% on the month and 2.7% year-over-year—higher than forecast. Meanwhile, consumer spending fell 0.1% and personal income dropped 0.4%, signaling a slowdown in economic momentum. Despite muted inflation pressures—thanks to falling energy prices—services continue to drive inflation, rising 3.4% annually. The data adds to speculation about a possible Fed rate cut in July, though officials remain cautious amid ongoing tariff impacts.
• President Donald Trump signaled flexibility on looming July deadlines that could reimpose steep tariffs—up to 50%—on many countries, including EU members, stating they “could be extended or shortened.” Despite this, a formal executive order mandates the tariffs revert to their original levels on July 8 unless officially amended. The original 90-day tariff pause, enacted April 9, aimed to give time for trade negotiations, but only limited framework deals have been reached with China and the UK. Trump claims more deals are pending but warns many countries will soon be told what tariffs they must pay. Meanwhile, a court ruling against his tariff authority is temporarily paused pending appeal.
• The U.S. and China have finalized details of a trade framework aimed at easing tech restrictions and resuming rare earth exports, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce. Under the agreement, China will approve export applications for controlled items, while the U.S. will lift some restrictions on Beijing. This follows recent talks in London and a Geneva consensus that temporarily suspended many tariffs. While the move signals improved relations, analysts caution that limited specifics—especially on rare earth curbs—suggest both nations still view these resources as key leverage in ongoing negotiations.
• President Donald Trump announced the immediate termination of all trade discussions with Canada in response to its new digital services tax targeting U.S. tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Meta. Calling the tax “egregious” and accusing Canada of mimicking the EU, Trump warned of impending tariffs within a week. The move disrupts relations with a key U.S. trading partner—bilateral trade totaled $762 billion last year—and triggered a drop in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Despite U.S. opposition, Canada plans to collect the retroactive tax starting Monday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that a Section 301 investigation into the tax is now likely.
• On 30/06/2025, China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the third consecutive month in June, with the official PMI rising slightly to 49.7 from 49.5, still below the 50 threshold indicating growth. While production and new orders showed modest improvements, factory inventory and employment continued to decline. Non-manufacturing activity edged up to 50.5, helped by services and construction. Despite Beijing’s stimulus efforts and a recent U.S.-China trade framework agreement, challenges persist, including deflation, industrial overcapacity, falling profits, and sharply reduced exports to the U.S. due to higher tariffs. Economists warn that unclear trade deal details and ongoing deflationary pressures continue to weigh on recovery prospects.
• Canada has reversed its decision to implement a digital services tax on major tech firms, including U.S. giants like Amazon, Google, and Meta, in an effort to revive stalled trade talks with the United States. The move follows President Donald Trump’s threat to halt all trade negotiations with Canada over the tax, which was set to take effect retroactively from 2022. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that withdrawing the tax supports the timeline for a new trade deal by July 21, 2025, as outlined at the recent G7 Summit. Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne emphasized the decision will help advance a broader economic and security partnership, though Canada remains firm on securing a favorable agreement before proceeding further.