Portfolio Update – March 2025

General news

• On 03/03/2025, President Donald Trump has ordered the inclusion of XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano’s ADA in the U.S. crypto strategic reserve, later adding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) as its core assets. This move aligns with his previous promise to create a national Bitcoin stockpile, though some Bitcoin advocates have criticized the broader focus on digital assets in his recent executive order. To address regulatory policies, Trump will host the first White House crypto summit on March 7 with industry leaders.
• On 04/03/2025, China announced new tariffs of up to 15% on select U.S. goods starting March 10 and imposed export restrictions on 15 U.S. companies in response to recent U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. The new Chinese duties primarily target U.S. agricultural products, including corn and soybeans, while affected companies include Leidos and General Dynamics Land Systems. China’s Ministry of Commerce condemned the U.S. tariffs and called for their removal, warning that they would harm trade relations. With U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods now reaching 33%, experts predict further retaliatory actions, especially in key sectors like agriculture, energy, and pharmaceuticals.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) announced a $100 billion investment to expand U.S. chip manufacturing, bringing its total U.S. investment to $165 billion. President Donald Trump praised the move as a major step toward strengthening America’s artificial intelligence and semiconductor industries. The funds will be used to build five new fabrication facilities in Arizona, aligning with Trump’s push to reshore semiconductor production for economic and national security reasons. TSMC, which supplies chips to companies like Nvidia and Apple, has already received $6.6 billion in U.S. government subsidies and previously committed $65 billion to its Arizona expansion.
• The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model predicts a 2.8% decline in U.S. GDP for Q1, a sharp contrast to last month’s 4% growth estimate, potentially signaling the steepest contraction since the COVID-19 lockdown. Economic factors such as a record-high $153 billion trade deficit in January, declining consumer confidence, and reduced spending contribute to concerns of a “Trumpcession.” Crypto markets have also suffered, losing over $670 billion in market cap since Trump’s inauguration, despite his pro-crypto stance. However, other GDP models, including those from the New York and Dallas Federal Reserves, project growth between 2.4% and 2.9%, offering a more optimistic outlook.
• On 05/03/2025, During his primetime address to Congress, President Donald Trump acknowledged that his newly imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would cause “a little disturbance” but insisted they were necessary to “make America rich again.” Despite economic concerns and a stock market decline following the tariffs’ implementation, Trump remained steadfast, claiming they would quickly yield benefits. While Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted at potential compromise deals, Trump gave no indication of easing the tariffs, instead emphasizing their role in strengthening the auto industry and curbing drug trafficking. Economists and industry groups, however, warn that the tariffs could raise consumer prices, particularly for automobiles.
• On 06/03/2025, U.S. President Donald Trump granted a one-month pause on his 25% tariffs for automakers that comply with a trilateral trade deal with Canada and Mexico, while also signaling openness to further exemptions. Stocks rebounded on the news, with the S&P 500 rising 1.12%, though concerns remain over economic uncertainty and declining earnings estimates. Private job growth slowed sharply in February, adding just 77,000 jobs—well below expectations. Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick blamed former President Joe Biden for economic challenges, calling his legacy a “pile of poop.” Investors are shifting towards bonds, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.2% as markets react to policy uncertainty.
• On 07/03/2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, funded solely by seized bitcoin from criminal and civil forfeitures, ensuring no taxpayer expense. The reserve, estimated to hold around 200,000 bitcoin, will serve as a permanent store of value, with a mandated audit of federal digital asset holdings. The order also creates a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile to manage other confiscated cryptocurrencies. However, Trump’s suggestion to include ether, XRP, Solana, and Cardano sparked criticism from bitcoin advocates like Tyler Winklevoss, who argued that only bitcoin meets the criteria for such a reserve. The announcement led to a drop in crypto prices, but analysts see it as a significant step toward legitimizing bitcoin as a global asset.
• The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates for the second time this year at its Thursday meeting, bringing its key rate to 2.5%, though growing disagreement among policymakers may complicate further reductions. While markets anticipate a cut to 2% by year-end, debates over the so-called “neutral rate” and economic uncertainty could slow the pace of easing. Analysts from Bank of America and Goldman Sachs predict rising internal disputes, with some expecting rates to drop as low as 1.5% by September. Meanwhile, the economic outlook remains uncertain due to U.S. tariffs, which could disrupt global trade and weaken the euro, as well as a potential surge in European defense spending, particularly in Germany, where a proposed coalition deal could unlock up to a trillion euros for infrastructure and military investments. ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to face questions on these issues as policymakers assess the broader economic impact.
• China is reinforcing its fiscal policy to address domestic and external uncertainties, particularly in response to rising U.S. tariffs. Finance Minister Lan Fo’an, speaking at the “Two Sessions” parliamentary meeting, highlighted plans to boost economic growth, including raising the on-budget deficit to 4% of GDP—the highest since 2010—and increasing the issuance of long-term treasury bonds and local government special-purpose bonds. The government aims to prioritize consumption, targeting a 5% GDP increase while lowering inflation to 2%, its lowest in two decades. Officials acknowledged trade tensions with the U.S., emphasizing China’s commitment to innovation despite external restrictions, while also calling for renewed trade discussions.
• China’s export growth slowed more than expected at the start of 2025, while imports saw a sharp decline, reflecting weak domestic demand and escalating U.S. tariffs. Exports rose only 2.3% year-on-year in the January-February period, falling short of the 5% forecast, while imports plunged 8.4%, marking the steepest drop since July 2023. The decline suggests that stimulus-driven domestic demand from late 2024 has already weakened. Chinese exporters have been accelerating shipments in anticipation of further U.S. tariffs, as President Trump imposed cumulative levies of 20% on Chinese goods. In response, China introduced counter-tariffs on select U.S. products and restricted exports of critical minerals. Despite the trade tensions, China’s leadership reaffirmed its ambitious 5% growth target while acknowledging weak domestic demand. The U.S. remains China’s largest single-country trading partner, with trade increasing 2.4% in early 2025, but analysts warn that trade may soften further unless a tariff deal is reached.
• On 08/03/2025, Job growth in February fell short of expectations but remained stable despite President Donald Trump’s push to reduce the federal workforce. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000, below the 170,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%. The Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk, has initiated federal job cuts through buyouts and mass layoffs, with federal employment dropping by 10,000 in February, though overall government jobs increased by 11,000. Many layoffs occurred after the survey period, meaning their full impact will likely be reflected in future reports. Key job gains were seen in health care (52,000), financial activities (21,000), transportation and warehousing (18,000), and social assistance (11,000), while retail shed 6,000 jobs. Wages grew 0.3% monthly as expected, with a 4% annual increase, slightly below forecasts.
• On 10/03/2025, China’s consumer price index (CPI) dropped 0.7% in February from a year earlier, marking its first annual decline since January 2024, as falling food, tobacco, and alcohol prices weighed on inflation. This was steeper than the expected 0.5% drop and followed a 0.5% year-on-year increase in January. Monthly CPI also fell by 0.2%, reversing a 0.7% rise in the previous month. The decline raises concerns about the effectiveness of Beijing’s stimulus measures as it aims to stabilize economic growth with a 2025 GDP target of around 5%. Additionally, the government lowered its annual inflation goal to 2%, the lowest in over two decades, highlighting ongoing weak domestic demand and challenges posed by escalating trade tensions with the U.S.
• On 11/03/2025, The likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2025 has risen to 35% from 15% due to the impact of President Trump’s tariffs, according to Alec Kersman of Pimco. Despite this, Pimco still expects the U.S. economy to grow by 1% to 1.5%, albeit at a slower pace. Kamal Bhatia of Principal Asset Management suggests tariffs might actually boost domestic consumption, potentially leading to stronger-than-expected GDP growth. He warns, however, that trade wars could push nations toward economic insularity, shifting spending patterns. Meanwhile, Trump initially announced a tariff hike on Canadian steel and aluminum but reversed course after Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford suspended an electricity surcharge, leading to renewed trade talks.
• China has doubled its consumer trade-in subsidies to 300 billion yuan ($41.47 billion) for 2025, targeting mid-range smartphones and home appliances rather than broad cash handouts. This expansion aligns with Beijing’s focus on boosting consumption, a priority highlighted in Premier Li Qiang’s recent government report. With retail sales slowing to 3.5% in 2024 and inflation turning negative in February, policymakers are addressing deflationary pressures by expanding fiscal support, stabilizing real estate, and curbing price wars. The subsidies, funded by an increase in ultra-long government bonds, reflect China’s shift toward domestic demand as global uncertainties persist.
• On 12/03/2025, President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports took effect Wednesday, prompting swift retaliation from the European Union, which announced counter-tariffs on $28.33 billion worth of U.S. goods starting in April. While Trump had initially considered raising tariffs on Canadian metals to 50%, the White House confirmed he had abandoned that plan. The move escalates trade tensions, raising concerns about potential recession risks. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese condemned the tariffs as unjustified and contrary to the long-standing U.S.-Australia economic partnership but ruled out reciprocal measures to avoid inflationary pressures on Australian consumers.
• U.S. President Donald Trump has reversed his decision to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, following discussions between Ontario Premier Doug Ford and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Ford had imposed a 25% tax on electricity exports to the U.S. in retaliation for Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canadian imports. After a “productive conversation,” Ford agreed to pause the surcharge, leading to Trump’s reversal. The two sides will meet in Washington on Thursday to discuss a renewed trade agreement. Earlier, Trump had reignited tensions by suggesting Canada be absorbed as the “Fifty-First State.”
• On 13/03/2025, U.S. inflation rose less than expected in February, with the consumer price index (CPI) increasing 0.2% for the month and 2.8% annually, easing concerns about inflationary pressures. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.2% and was up 3.1% from a year ago, the lowest since April 2021. Shelter costs, a key component, increased 0.3%, while food and energy prices also rose 0.2%. The report comes as President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on steel, aluminum, and Chinese goods take effect, raising concerns about future inflation impacts. Markets are closely watching Federal Reserve policy, with expectations for rate cuts later this year.
• The U.S. budget deficit surpassed $1 trillion in February, marking a 38% increase from the same period in 2024, according to a Treasury report. Government spending continues to outpace revenue despite slight monthly declines. Interest payments on the $36.2 trillion national debt reached $396 billion for the fiscal year, trailing only Social Security and Medicare in federal expenses. President Donald Trump has prioritized fiscal reform, establishing the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk, to cut costs, though impacts remain unclear. Meanwhile, Trump’s push to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act faces criticism for potentially adding $3.3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.
• The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on Wednesday, citing trade uncertainty with the U.S. as a major factor. Governor Tiff Macklem warned that shifting U.S. tariff policies have weakened business and consumer confidence, restraining spending and investment. This marks the seventh consecutive rate cut, aligning with market expectations. The central bank estimates that a prolonged trade war could shrink Canada’s GDP by 3% over two years, with business investment dropping 12% and exports declining 8.5%. Surveys show 72% of consumers and 47% of businesses expect rising costs due to tariffs.
• On 14/03/2025, The producer price index (PPI) remained flat in February, signaling easing inflation pressures amid tariff concerns, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This follows a 0.6% rise in January and falls below economists’ expectations of a 0.3% increase. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, declined 0.1%, marking its first drop since July. Year-over-year, headline PPI rose 3.2%, down from January’s 3.7%. The report follows a 0.2% rise in consumer prices, keeping inflation concerns in focus. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady next week, with potential cuts beginning in June.
• Stocks continued their decline on Thursday as investors reacted to President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats. The S&P 500 fell 1.39%, the Dow dropped 537 points, and the Nasdaq shed nearly 2%, extending a three-week market downturn. Trump’s proposal of 200% tariffs on EU alcoholic products added to concerns over his broader trade policy, set to take effect on April 2. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed market volatility, emphasizing long-term economic health. Meanwhile, cooling inflation data failed to boost sentiment as uncertainty over trade and Federal Reserve policy weighed on stocks.
• On 17/03/2025, China has unveiled a “Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption” aimed at stimulating domestic demand and addressing economic challenges. The plan focuses on increasing incomes, reducing burdens, stabilizing the stock market, and expanding tourism. While details remain broad, economists see it as a long-term strategy to transition China toward a consumption-driven economy. The announcement follows concerns over deflation and slow wage growth. Despite the plan’s introduction, China’s CSI 300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indexes showed only modest gains, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
• U.S. President Donald Trump is set to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week to discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. The move follows a “positive” meeting between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin in Moscow. Trump is pushing for a 30-day ceasefire, which Ukraine has accepted, while Russia advances in the Kursk region. Putin has expressed “cautious optimism” and agreed to spare Ukrainian troops if they surrender. However, challenges remain, with U.S. officials acknowledging that peace talks will require difficult negotiations and concessions from both sides. Meanwhile, the U.S. is increasing pressure on Russia through potential sanctions on its oil sector.
• President Donald Trump signed a bill to fund the government through September, avoiding a shutdown. The measure, passed by the Senate on Friday, included a defense spending increase and $13 billion in cuts to non-defense programs. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s support for the bill sparked backlash among House Democrats, who saw it as enabling Trump’s spending cuts. While some Senate Democrats opposed the bill, others prioritized preventing a shutdown, with Schumer arguing it was the lesser of two bad options. Critics, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, viewed it as a betrayal, reflecting growing Democratic divisions over handling Trump’s policies.
• On 18/03/2025, China has unveiled a “Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption” to stimulate domestic demand and counter deflationary pressures. The plan aims to increase incomes, ease financial burdens, stabilize the stock market, and develop investment options for individuals. It also includes measures to promote tourism, particularly in ice and snow regions, and expand visa-free travel policies. While the plan lacks groundbreaking initiatives, analysts see it as a commitment to addressing long-term economic challenges, such as slow wage growth, a weak property market, and an inadequate social safety net. Experts note that these structural reforms will take time but could support China’s transition to a consumption-driven economy.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized the Trump administration’s commitment to preventing a financial crisis, citing excessive government spending as a major risk and stressing the need for fiscal sustainability. Despite efforts such as the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk, the U.S. deficit surpassed $1 trillion in February, raising concerns about economic stability. While market volatility has increased due to Trump’s tariffs, Bessent views corrections as a normal part of investing and believes that long-term pro-business policies, including tax reforms, deregulation, and energy security, will ultimately strengthen the economy. However, he acknowledged that there are no guarantees against a potential recession.
• On 20/03/2025, The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5% but signaled potential cuts later in the year, anticipating two quarter-point reductions by 2025. Despite concerns over Trump’s tariffs and fiscal policies, officials maintained a cautious outlook, citing increased economic uncertainty. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized flexibility, stating that strong economic conditions could keep rates elevated, while unexpected weakness might prompt easing. The Fed lowered its 2024 growth forecast to 1.7% and raised its core inflation estimate to 2.8%. Investors reacted positively, with the Dow jumping 400 points, though the Fed’s projections suggest a more hawkish stance compared to December.
• Germany’s parliament has approved a significant spending increase, marking a departure from its traditional fiscal conservatism to boost economic growth and strengthen military defense amid geopolitical uncertainty. The plan, backed by Merz’s conservatives and the SPD, includes a €500 billion fund for infrastructure and easing borrowing limits to support security investments. Concerns over an assertive Russia and shifting U.S. policies under Trump have driven the move. The legislation still requires approval from the upper house but gained key support from the Bavarian Free Voters. Merz emphasized the urgency of the decision, citing the evolving geopolitical landscape.
• On 21/03/2025, The United Arab Emirates has pledged a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment in the United States, focusing on AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing, following meetings between top UAE officials and President Donald Trump. The agreement, resulting from discussions between Trump and UAE national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, as well as a dinner with Vice President JD Vance and Cabinet members, will significantly expand UAE investments in the U.S. economy. As part of the framework, UAE investment fund ADQ, in partnership with Energy Capital Partners, launched a $25 billion initiative targeting energy infrastructure and data centers. Additionally, ADNOC’s investment arm XRG committed to supporting U.S. natural gas production and exports through a stake in the NextDecade LNG export facility in Texas, with further plans for investments across gas, chemicals, energy infrastructure, and low-carbon solutions.
• On 22/03/2025, Japan’s core inflation reached 3% in February, surpassing expectations of 2.9% but slightly lower than January’s 3.2%, marking 35 consecutive months above the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) 2% target. Headline inflation eased to 3.7% from 4%, while the core-core inflation rate—excluding fresh food and energy—rose to 2.6%. Despite holding interest rates steady at 0.5%, the BOJ signaled that core inflation is expected to rise in the 2025 fiscal year due to higher rice prices and reduced government inflation control measures. Wage hikes also support the case for further rate increases, as Japan’s largest labor union secured a 5.46% wage increase, the highest in over 30 years. The Japanese yen strengthened slightly to 148.61 per dollar following the data release, while the Nikkei 225 saw a marginal decline.
• On 24/03/2025, Hyundai has announced a $21 billion U.S. investment, including a $5.8 billion steel plant in Louisiana that will employ 1,400 workers and supply next-generation steel for its American EV production. The announcement, made at the White House alongside President Trump, comes as global companies rush to localize operations ahead of the April 2 tariff deadline. Hyundai, a top EV seller in the U.S., is also opening a third auto plant in Georgia. The move follows Trump’s criticism of South Korea’s trade practices, though Seoul disputes claims of an imbalance, citing a 0.79% effective tariff rate under their free trade agreement.
• President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil and gas, effective April 2, to pressure President Nicolás Maduro and China. The move targets Venezuela’s major buyers, including China, and could drive oil prices higher. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury extended Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela until May 27, despite Trump’s earlier pledge to reverse Biden-era decisions. Trump also accused Venezuela of sending Tren de Aragua gang members to the U.S. and invoked the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, though a federal judge blocked his deportation plan, prompting legal tensions and a rebuke from Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts.
• On 26/03/2025, Consumer confidence declined for the fourth consecutive month in March, with the Conference Board’s index falling to 92.9, below economist expectations. The future expectations index plunged to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years, signaling potential recession concerns. Consumers’ outlook on income, jobs, and business conditions deteriorated, with optimism about future income vanishing. Stock market expectations also weakened, with only 37.4% anticipating higher prices. The labor market outlook worsened, as fewer respondents expect job growth. The decline coincides with economic uncertainty, tariff concerns, and market volatility under President Trump’s trade policies.
• On 27/03/2025, President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all foreign-made cars and light trucks starting April 2, exempting vehicles built in the U.S., with White House aide Will Scharf estimating over $100 billion in annual revenue. The move faced criticism from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who warned of economic consequences for both the U.S. and the EU, while auto stocks, including General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford, dropped about 5% after the news. Although Trump has framed April 2 as a major turning point for U.S. trade, officials have indicated some flexibility, allowing countries to negotiate exemptions before implementation.
• The U.K.’s inflation rate dipped slightly to 2.8% in February, below the expected 2.9%, following a sharp rise to 3% in January. Core inflation also eased to 3.5% from 3.7%. The decline was driven by lower costs in clothing, housing, and recreation, though energy prices are expected to push inflation back above 3% later in the year. The Bank of England, which recently held interest rates at 4.5%, remains cautious amid global trade uncertainties. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is set to announce spending cuts to address a budget shortfall, as the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to downgrade the U.K.’s 2025 growth forecast. Economists predict inflation could briefly fall to 2.5% in March before rising again, delaying potential BOE rate cuts until 2026.
• On 28/03/2025, President Donald Trump is expected to sign a resolution overturning a Biden-era IRS rule requiring decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms to report transactions, following its approval by the Senate in a 70-28 vote on March 26. The House had passed a similar version earlier due to procedural rules. The rule aimed to expand IRS reporting requirements to DeFi platforms, but critics argued it imposed excessive regulations that could stifle innovation, while supporters warned its repeal could facilitate tax evasion and illicit activities. The White House’s AI and crypto czar, David Sacks, confirmed Trump’s support for scrapping the rule, with industry advocates celebrating the decision.
• On 29/03/2025, The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 0.4% in February—the largest increase since January 2024—bringing the annual rate to 2.8%, above the expected 2.7%. Meanwhile, overall inflation increased 0.3% monthly and 2.5% annually, aligning with forecasts. Consumer spending grew 0.4%, slightly below expectations, while personal income rose 0.8%, doubling projections. The report led to brief declines in stock futures and Treasury yields, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will delay rate cuts amid inflation concerns and uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariffs. The personal savings rate also climbed to 4.6%, the highest since mid-2024.
• On 31/03/2025, South Korea, China, and Japan held their first economic dialogue in five years on Sunday, aiming to strengthen regional trade cooperation as they brace for the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The three nations committed to advancing negotiations on a trilateral free trade agreement and reinforcing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to counter growing trade restrictions. The meeting comes ahead of Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcement on Wednesday and follows his recent 25% tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, a move that could significantly impact Asian automakers. Despite historical disputes, the countries aim to foster economic collaboration, with plans to hold their next ministerial meeting in Japan.
• In a wide-ranging interview, President Trump dismissed concerns over tariffs, stating he “couldn’t care less” if automakers raised prices, as he believes it will drive demand for American-made cars. He reaffirmed the permanence of the tariffs, despite international backlash, and ruled out delaying their April 2 implementation unless offered significant concessions. Addressing the Signal group chat leak about military strikes, he labeled the controversy “fake news” and stood by his advisers, refusing to fire anyone over the incident. Trump also reiterated his ambition to annex Greenland, asserting that while military force is not the first option, nothing is off the table.