Portfolio Update - July 2024

Portfolio Summary

Here is a summary of my portfolio at the top level:

Raiz Aggressive Portfolio – $24,988.74 total return $3,806.73 (30.47% according to app)
VDHG (using VPI platform) – $108,683.28, total return $22,021.87 (10.63% including DRP)
IVV (Selfwealth) – $842.40, total return $360.78 (17.13% including DRP)
SYI (Selfwealth) – $2,415.84, total return $564.33 (7.67% including DRP)
VISM (Selfwealth) – $666.10, total return $135.08 (6.64% including DRP)
A200 (Selfwealth) – $2,429.10, total return $521.92 (8.60% including DRP)
Cryptocurrency – $106,889.19 (51.76% from principle)
Gold – $0
Property – $715,000.00
Redraw – $16,984.96
Mortgage – $541,751.51

A breakdown of my current asset allocation:

Australian Shares – 23.36%
Global Shares – 27.94%
Bonds – 5.11%
Fixed Income Assets – 0.3%
Gold – 0%
Cryptocurrency – 43.29%

Portfolio Total (Stock + Crypto + Gold) – $246,914.65. An increase of 6.15% compared to last month’s value ($232,603.58).

Net worth – $420,163.14

Wow, the moment I am writing this update, I have just realized I have been spending quite a lot this month, which also makes me realize that it’s almost a year since I last bought the property. Most of my spending was on the properties which spikes my total expense. Here’s the breakdown of the extra spending I got:

Home Insurance – I have to switch to new insurance since it costs more to renew my current one – $1,292.67
New smart door lock – Samsung – $198.00
New powerboard – $21.98
Bubble wrap for the windows – $22.56
Hole saw – $32.00
Chisel – $15.98
Unexpected transport to visit a friend – $40.00
Printing Paperwork – $41.00
Electribill for 36 days – $101.50

Total – $1,765.69. This has not included the meals I spent with my new team, which cost approximately $150. On top of that, I also sent an early support payment to my family this month, and I would include it as part of this month so no expense for this next month. A sudden spike in expenses always makes me cautious about my spending for the month, and luckily my income for this month is higher since I got 5 weeks of salary payment this time, which sometimes happens. This helped me cover these extra costs and on top of it, I got an additional payment from my freelance work so I was not stressing out that much. With the sudden spike for this month, this month’s saving rate is around 25.02%.

The home insurance cost is a necessary cost I have to pay for, however, I was not expecting to see an increase of 20% in the insurance cost this year. It’s even worse with my old insurance cover, which jumped to $1,450, which is a 40% increase compared to last year. I was so confused about the cost, and luckily got the insurance broker to find the cheapest deal on the market. I am happy to pay a bit less so still a good deal anyway.

I did a small project this month to improve the door knob of the front door, and also the fact that using keys to open the door at night time is quite frustrating. The doorknob was quite old so I decided to replace it with a smart lock, but I bought the cheapest option I can find in Bunning, which cost $200. Lately, I have been a bit interested in doing stuff around the house, improving bit by bit. Also, I got more time to learn how to do stuff around the house by myself. A door lock is a perfect opportunity to learn. Even though I was able to replace and install it, couple of hiccups along the way, like missing tools. Spending a bit extra to get more tools is also a good investment, I think. Now I know what a hole saw and chisel look like and how to use it.

I also got more contributions for this month:

Raiz’s contribution is still $400 + micro-investing which I am not too sure about. These small micro-investments are automatically deducted from my account based on my spending, and it’s been running since I used Raiz, I just forgot about it until now. Technically, I have been contributing more than $400 each month, maybe $450 something.
I have also invested $400 in Bitcoin when it dropped to $55-56k something. A small amount but I intend to do this every month to add more Bitcoin to my portfolio.
I put 2 extra payments to my redraw account, a total of $1,269. If I am to deduct the monthly payment for the variable account, which is $297.77, the extra repayment to the redraw would be $971.23.

Honestly, I think I have done quite a lot of things this month. I also found a new way to improve my daily food expenses at a reasonable cost. I have been paying extra costs at the cafeteria, which I should not have done. I am currently being cautious about food lately, and the quality of food I spend on. It’s not worth it to buy inside the cafeteria at the workplace, and the shop outside is actually cheaper if I compare the quality and the size. Imagine how much money I can save and eat better food. I have been doing this for the last couple of weeks and really happy that I made this change to my morning routine.

Note: A reminder is that this number is still an estimation only as my crypto portfolio consists of different assets, including NFTs, staking, and Defi. I have to use other tools to keep track of and maintain the value of investments to finalize the value of my portfolio. NFT is hard to estimate because of price fluctuation in the crypto market. However, estimation is still good enough in this case.

Events & Porfolio Analysis

General news

On 01/07/2024, SoftBank announced on Friday its plan to issue euro- and dollar-denominated bonds, aiming to raise approximately $900 million in U.S. dollar-denominated bonds and 900 million euros (about $962.8 million) in bonds. These bonds, divided into two tranches, will have interest rates between 5.4% and 7% per annum. The funds raised will be used to repay debt and for general corporate purposes. Following the announcement, SoftBank’s shares rose by 2.5%. This move comes as the company’s financial losses have narrowed and it has seen successes like the IPO of chip designer Arm. Additionally, SoftBank is focusing on increasing investments in artificial intelligence, with CEO Masayoshi Son discussing the potential of artificial super intelligence (ASI), which he predicts will be 10,000 times smarter than humans within ten years. The company’s shares have risen 65% year-to-date, reflecting improving investor sentiment.
On 02/07/2024, Market participants in Japan anticipate that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will reduce its bond purchases by approximately $100 billion in the first year of its upcoming quantitative tightening (QT) plan, according to a Reuters survey. The survey, which included responses from 19 banks, brokerages, insurers, and asset managers, indicated that the BOJ is expected to decrease its bond buying by an average of 16.1 trillion yen ($99.7 billion) in the first year, translating to monthly purchases of 4.65 trillion yen, down from the current rate of about 6 trillion yen. For the second year, the purchase amount is projected to drop to an average of 3.55 trillion yen, culminating in a total reduction of roughly 45 trillion yen over two years. Opinions on the duration of the tapering process varied, with some expecting it to last two years, while others believed it could end in one year or extend beyond two years. The survey also revealed differing expectations regarding the frequency of tapering adjustments, with a slight majority anticipating monthly or quarterly changes, and others predicting less frequent or ad hoc adjustments.
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Pierre Wunsch indicated that while the decision for the next interest rate cut is relatively straightforward, any further cuts should only be considered once inflation is clearly moving towards the 2% target. The ECB had previously cut rates in early June but did not commit to additional cuts, citing persistent high inflation and a lack of confidence in reaching the 2% target. Wunsch, Belgium’s central bank governor, stated that despite recent data showing stubborn wages and service price growth, he still sees room for a second rate cut if there are no major negative surprises. However, he emphasized that this second cut is not urgent and could be postponed until new projections are released in September. Inflation is anticipated to have slowed to 2.5% in the past month, but the ECB expects fluctuations around this level throughout the year, making further cuts challenging until more definitive progress towards 2% inflation is observed. Wunsch stressed the need for more assurance that inflation is decreasing towards 2% before proceeding with additional cuts, as lowering rates below 1% real spot rates would be difficult. The ECB’s deposit rate is currently at 3.75%, with markets anticipating around 40 basis points of cuts over the year, potentially involving one or two moves, and a total of four cuts within the next 18 months.
On 03/07/2024, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed satisfaction with the progress in reducing inflation over the past year but emphasized the need for more evidence before considering interest rate cuts. Speaking at a central banking forum in Sintra, Portugal, alongside European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Brazil central bank Governor Roberto Campos Neto, Powell noted that recent inflation readings suggest a return to a disinflationary path. However, he stressed the importance of being confident that inflation is sustainably moving towards the Fed’s 2% target before loosening policy. Despite inflation showing signs of easing, with the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index rising at a 2.6% annual pace in May, Powell highlighted the risks of acting prematurely, which could jeopardize the progress made in reducing inflation. The Fed does not expect to achieve its 2% inflation goal until 2026, and Powell cautioned against making policy changes too soon, which could reverse the gains or, if delayed, potentially harm the economic recovery and expansion.
On 04/07/2024, ADP’s report indicated a potential slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with private payroll growth declining to 150,000 jobs in June, below both May’s revised 157,000 and the Dow Jones estimate of 160,000. The leisure and hospitality sector led the gains with 63,000 jobs, while other sectors like construction and professional services also saw increases. However, natural resources, manufacturing, and information sectors experienced job losses. Wage growth for job holders slowed to 4.9% year-over-year, the smallest rise since August 2021, while job switchers saw a 7.7% increase. Mid-sized companies (50-499 employees) added the most jobs, while small businesses contributed minimally. The South accounted for over half of the total job gains. This ADP report, often differing from the Labor Department’s figures, precedes the anticipated nonfarm payrolls report expected to show a 200,000 job increase for June.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting revealed officials acknowledged inflation is heading in the right direction but not quickly enough to justify lowering interest rates. The summary indicated that additional positive data is needed to ensure inflation is sustainably moving towards the 2% target. While some of the 19 central bankers were open to raising rates if necessary, the meeting concluded with rates remaining unchanged. The Fed targets 2% annual inflation, a level exceeded since early 2021, and officials seek more consistent evidence of improvement. The meeting included updates on economic projections and future monetary policy, with the FOMC’s “dot plot” showing one quarter percentage point cut by the end of 2024, down from three projected in March. Despite this, futures markets still anticipate two cuts starting in September.
On 06/07/2024, In June, the U.S. economy added 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, surpassing the forecasted 200,000 but less than the previous month’s downwardly revised figure. Despite this job growth, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest since October 2021, contradicting predictions that it would remain steady at 4%. Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, described the report as indicative of a “soft landing,” suggesting the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon, possibly in September. The labor force participation rate increased to 62.6%, with the prime age rate for those aged 25-54 climbing to 83.7%, the highest in over 22 years. The broader unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers and part-timers for economic reasons, stayed at 7.4%. The household survey revealed a rise of 116,000 in employment, with a decrease of 28,000 full-time workers and an increase of 50,000 part-time workers.
On 10/07/2024, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, ahead of his Capitol Hill testimony, expressed concerns about the risks of maintaining high interest rates for too long, which could harm economic growth. He acknowledged the strong economy and labor market, alongside some progress in reducing inflation, but emphasized the need to avoid prematurely easing policy restraints. The Fed’s overnight borrowing rate, currently at its highest in 23 years after 11 consecutive hikes, is expected to see cuts starting in September, although FOMC members suggested only one cut this year. Powell noted recent encouraging inflation data and stressed that further positive data would increase confidence in achieving the 2% target. His remarks come as part of the semiannual monetary policy update to Congress, where he will face potentially contentious questioning, especially with some Democratic members advocating for rate cuts.
China’s consumer price inflation increased by 0.2% in June compared to a year ago, falling short of the expected 0.4% rise, while producer prices decreased by 0.8%, matching forecasts, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, saw a year-on-year rise of 0.6% in June, slightly below the 0.7% increase for the first half of the year. Pork prices surged by 18.1%, whereas beef prices dropped by 13.4%. Tourism prices rose by 3.7% annually in June, a decrease from May. Despite this, Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, noted that the risk of deflation persists in China due to weak domestic demand, suggesting the country would depend on exports for growth in the first half of the year. China’s trade data for June is set to be released on Friday. The subdued domestic demand contrasts with major economies like the U.S., where inflation has remained high.
On 11/07/2024, In May, the U.K. economy expanded by 0.4%, exceeding the 0.2% growth forecasted by economists, as reported by the Office for National Statistics. This positive growth led to the British pound reaching a four-month high against the U.S. dollar. The services sector continued to grow by 0.3%, while production and construction rebounded with increases of 0.2% and 1.9%, respectively. Following the newly elected Labour Party’s victory and Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s first week in office, Goldman Sachs upgraded its growth forecast for the U.K. The nation’s inflation rate, which had dropped from 11.1% in October 2022 to the Bank of England’s target of 2% in May 2024, has raised expectations for an upcoming interest rate cut, although the Bank of England remains cautious about inflation persistence.
The S&P 500 climbed to a new record on Wednesday, surpassing 5,600 for the first time, driven by a significant rise in semiconductor stocks. The broad market index increased by 1.02%, closing at 5,633.91, marking its seventh consecutive day of gains. The Nasdaq Composite also hit an all-time high, advancing 1.18% to 18,647.45, with both indexes achieving multiple record closes this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 429.39 points, or 1.09%, finishing at 39,721.36. Taiwan Semiconductor’s stock rose by 3.5% after outperforming revenue expectations, while Qualcomm and Broadcom saw gains of 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. Nvidia, a leading player in artificial intelligence, climbed by 2.7%. Investors are eagerly awaiting the June consumer price index report, due Thursday, amid hopes of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year. Dow Jones economists forecast a modest 0.1% month-over-month increase and a 3.1% year-on-year gain, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.2% monthly and 3.4% annually. The producer price index is slated for release on Friday.
On 12/07/2024, In June, the monthly inflation rate decreased for the first time in over four years, potentially paving the way for the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates later this year. The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% from May, bringing the annual rate to 3%, its lowest in more than three years, as reported by the Labor Department. This marked the first monthly decline since May 2020. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, core CPI rose by 0.1% monthly and 3.3% annually, slightly below forecasts. A significant 3.8% drop in gasoline prices helped offset increases in food and shelter costs, the latter being a major component of CPI. The positive inflation report boosted stock market futures and lowered Treasury yields. Chris Larkin of E-Trade from Morgan Stanley noted this brings the Fed closer to a potential rate cut in September, contingent on future economic data. Additionally, used vehicle prices dropped 1.5% monthly and 10.1% annually, contributing to the subdued inflation. Consequently, real average hourly earnings for workers increased by 0.4% monthly and 0.8% annually.
On 13/07/2024, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed significantly, driven by gains in Home Depot and Caterpillar, as investors began to diversify beyond the tech sector. The Dow rose 247.15 points (0.62%) to close at 40,000.90, hitting a record high of 40,257.24 during the session, its first time above 40,000 since late May. Home Depot and Caterpillar saw substantial increases, contributing to the Dow’s 1.6% weekly gain. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also posted gains, recovering from a tech sell-off earlier in the week. Investors are optimistic that a drop in the consumer price index could prompt a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, boosting industrial stocks. David Russell of TradeStation highlighted that while AI has driven market growth, other factors, such as potential rate cuts, can also benefit different sectors.
MicroStrategy, a Nasdaq-listed business intelligence firm, announced a 10-for-1 stock split of its Class A and B common stock on July 11. The split aims to increase accessibility for investors and employees and will be executed as a stock dividend, granting stockholders nine additional shares per share owned. The new shares will be distributed after trading closes on August 7, 2024, with split-adjusted trading starting on August 8, 2024. The voting rights of stockholders will remain unchanged. MicroStrategy also declared itself a Bitcoin development company, emphasizing its commitment to the Bitcoin network through financial market activities and its primary treasury reserve asset strategy. Additionally, the firm is expanding into artificial intelligence software analytics solutions.
The Bank of Japan’s latest market projection on Friday suggests a possible $22 billion intervention to support the struggling yen. The Japanese currency surged 3% against the dollar on Thursday following unexpectedly low U.S. inflation data, marking its biggest daily gain since late 2022. On Friday, the Bank of Japan’s daily current account balance data projected a $20 billion drain on July 16, contrasting with an earlier forecast of a 400 billion yen surplus, indicating a surprising 3.57 trillion yen gap likely due to Thursday’s currency intervention. Market analysts believe policymakers capitalized on the U.S. inflation data to act. Masato Kanda, vice minister of finance for international affairs, declined to comment on the intervention, and the Ministry of Finance’s spokesperson was unavailable for comment.
Wholesale prices rose more than anticipated in June, complicating Wall Street’s outlook on when the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates. The producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.2% last month, surpassing economists’ expectations of a 0.1% rise, and now stands 2.6% higher than a year ago. The PPI, which measures the prices producers receive for goods and services, saw a rise in service prices that offset a decline in goods prices. This reading contradicts recent data indicating declining inflation, despite the consumer price index (CPI) showing a decrease in headline inflation to 3% year-over-year in June. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current rates in its upcoming July meeting, with traders focusing on September for a potential rate cut. The Fed’s favored inflation metric, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, will be released on July 26.
On 15/07/2024, The shooting at former President Donald Trump’s election rally on Saturday is expected to boost his odds of winning back the White House, leading to increased trades betting on his victory, according to investors. Trump was shot in the ear during the rally in Pennsylvania, in what authorities are treating as an assassination attempt. Despite the incident, Trump appeared unfazed and his campaign reported he was fine. This event is reminiscent of the 1981 assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan, which resulted in a significant surge in Reagan’s poll numbers. Markets had already been reacting positively to the possibility of a Trump presidency, with the dollar strengthening and a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve anticipated. The shooting could significantly impact the tight race between Trump and President Joe Biden, with some predicting a potential landslide for Trump. Following a lackluster debate performance, Biden has faced increased skepticism about his ability to compete against Trump. Key issues for voters include immigration and the economy, with Trump seen as the stronger candidate for economic matters. Market analysts anticipate that a Trump administration would adopt more hawkish trade policies, reduce regulations, and extend expiring tax cuts, raising concerns about budget deficits. Additionally, Trump has indicated he would not reappoint Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if he were to win. This political shift has already influenced longer-end Treasury yields and the Treasury curve, reflecting changing expectations about future Federal Reserve rate cuts.
On 16/07/2024, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated on Monday that the central bank will not wait until inflation reaches 2% before cutting interest rates. Speaking at the Economic Club of Washington D.C., Powell explained that central bank policy operates with “long and variable lags,” meaning that waiting for inflation to hit 2% could result in over-tightening and potentially pushing inflation below the target. Instead, the Fed seeks “greater confidence” that inflation will return to 2%, which requires more positive inflation data. Powell also expressed that a “hard landing” for the U.S. economy is unlikely. This was Powell’s first public appearance since the June consumer price index report indicated cooling inflation. He clarified that his remarks were not meant to signal when rate cuts might start, with the next policy meeting scheduled for the end of July. Powell made these comments in a discussion with David Rubenstein, chairman of the Economic Club of Washington and co-founder of The Carlyle Group. Currently, the federal funds rate ranges from 5.25% to 5.50%, significantly higher than during the Covid-19 pandemic. Powell humorously noted that people often suggest rate cuts, even mentioning a recent elevator encounter.
China’s economy faces significant debt, and President Xi Jinping’s solution is to increase borrowing. The central government has launched a substantial borrowing program to guide the $18 trillion economy towards “high quality development.” This move, outlined by the State Council in March, involves issuing special sovereign bonds with maturities up to 50 years, a shift from previous practices where such bonds were issued only for specific crises. The new plan includes selling 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) in ultra-long-dated bonds, with ongoing issuances over the next several years. The funds will support major national strategies, such as building schools and hospitals in grain-producing regions to ensure food security, and investing in industries like semiconductors, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence. This approach aims to shift China’s growth model towards domestic consumption, a green economy, and innovation. Increasing central government borrowing could reduce wasteful investments and ease the financial burden on local governments, enhancing Xi’s control over economic planning and resource allocation.
On 17/07/2024, U.K. inflation held steady at the Bank of England’s 2% target in June, as reported by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday. This headline figure exceeded analyst expectations of 1.9%, matching the previous 2% reading in May. The British pound saw a slight rise, trading at $1.2977 shortly after the data release. Services inflation, a key focus for the BOE due to its reflection of domestic price pressures, remained at 5.7%, while core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, was steady at 3.5%. Higher restaurant and hotel prices contributed to inflation, while clothing and footwear costs decreased. Increased consumer spending on leisure activities, including concerts by high-profile artists, also played a role. Despite signs of easing inflation, the potential for an August rate cut by the BOE remains uncertain. Stubborn services inflation could lead to caution among policymakers, as noted by Rabobank’s Jane Foley and BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee member Jonathan Haskel. BOE chief economist Huw Pill emphasized the ongoing “open question” regarding the timing of a rate cut due to persistent wage growth pressures. The BOE’s main interest rate has been at a 16-year high of 5.25% since August 2023, when inflation was 7.9%.
Gold prices hit new records on Wednesday, buoyed by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Spot gold prices rose 0.5% to $2,482.29 per ounce, reaching an all-time high, while gold futures climbed to $2,478.4 an ounce. On Monday, Powell indicated that the Fed would not wait for inflation to hit the 2% target before beginning rate cuts due to delayed policy effects, aiming instead for “greater confidence” that inflation will return to that level. June saw a dip in the monthly inflation rate, the first in over four years, bolstering market confidence. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are convinced of a rate cut by September. As interest rates fall, gold becomes more attractive compared to fixed-income assets like bonds. ANZ’s senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes noted that signs of slowing inflation and weak economic data have fueled the move. Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, amid Middle East tensions and central banks’ bullion purchases, has driven prices higher. Vivek Dhar of Commonwealth Bank of Australia highlighted gold’s resilience, predicting prices could exceed $2,500 per ounce by year’s end.
On 18/07/2024, The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its current interest rates this week after a cut in June, the first since September 2019. This decision comes amid uncertainty about inflation dynamics, particularly from the labor market, which complicates a rapid path of cuts. According to Anatoli Annenkov of Societe Generale, the July meeting will likely be a stock-taking exercise rather than a policy decision, as new quarterly data is not yet available. Economic indicators like the Purchasing Managers’ Index and Germany’s ZEW Index show a bumpy recovery and a declining business outlook, respectively. While headline inflation has declined, wage growth remains a significant issue for the ECB in achieving its 2% inflation target. Dirk Schumacher of Natixis notes that wage growth is now the primary obstacle. The ECB faces heightened uncertainty from geopolitics and specific political events, but it is expected that headline inflation will approach the target by September or October, potentially timing a rate cut for September. However, a material slowdown in wage growth is needed for a clearer policy direction.
On 19/07/2024, The European Central Bank (ECB) unanimously decided to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday, following a significant cut in June. The potential for a rate reduction in September remains “wide open,” according to the ECB. Despite maintaining restrictive financing conditions, the ECB noted that domestic price pressures and services inflation remain high, with headline inflation expected to stay above target into next year. The key interest rate stays at 3.75%, as concerns over inflation, especially from the labor market, persist. June’s euro zone headline inflation dipped slightly to 2.5%, while core inflation held steady at 2.9%. Analysts anticipate the ECB will await further data on payrolls, economic growth, and productivity before considering more monetary easing. ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted that although wages are rising to offset past high inflation and labor costs are still high, they have begun to decelerate. She expects inflation to fluctuate but generally decline in the year’s second half due to weaker labor costs, the effects of monetary policy, and diminishing price shocks.
On 20/07/2024, Businesses around the globe faced a major IT outage on Friday, impacting financial services, doctors’ offices, TV broadcasters, and air travel, with grounded planes and delayed services. The disruption stemmed from a recent tech update issue at cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike. CEO George Kurtz clarified that the problem, which affected Windows hosts but not Mac or Linux, was not a security breach or cyberattack. The defect has been identified, isolated, and a fix deployed. Despite these efforts, an expert labeled it potentially the “largest IT outage in history.” Meanwhile, Microsoft reported its cloud services were restored, although many users continued to experience issues. Following these events, CrowdStrike’s shares dropped by 11%.
On 22/07/2024, Following President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris, she has quickly gained significant support from major donors and bundlers who have assisted her in past campaigns. Key figures such as Jon Henes, her national finance chair from the 2020 presidential run, reported a surge of interest in fundraising, with over 200 messages from potential donors. Wall Street executive Marc Lasry, a previous supporter, is also planning to help Harris. Additionally, the progressive donation platform ActBlue raised over $45 million from small-dollar donors shortly after Biden’s endorsement. The Biden for President campaign has since filed paperwork to change its name to “Harris for President.”
On 23/07/2024, Asia-Pacific markets had a mixed performance on Tuesday, with China’s stocks leading declines despite Wall Street’s gains amid political uncertainties. In India, the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex both fell nearly 0.8% following a budget announcement by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration, which reduced the fiscal deficit target to 4.9% of GDP. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 0.9%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 dropped 2.14%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slightly dipped by 0.01% while the Topix rose 0.21%. South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq rose 0.39% and 0.27% respectively, despite Kakao’s shares dropping 4.63% due to market manipulation allegations against its founder. Taiwan’s Taiex rebounded 2.76%, ending a four-day losing streak, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increased by 0.5%.
On 24/07/2024, New data reveals that the majority of Americans’ income taxes are being used to pay interest on the national debt. According to economist E.J. Antoni, the Federal Reserve’s June figures show that interest payments on the national debt equal 76% of all personal income taxes collected. Antoni points out that servicing the federal debt has surged by 33% in one year and is expected to worsen. In June, interest on the national debt became the government’s largest expense, surpassing spending on the Department of Health and Human Services and the Social Security Administration. The Treasury projects that interest payments will exceed $1.14 trillion this fiscal year, a figure Antoni suggests could be underestimated given the Treasury’s history of overly optimistic projections.
On 25/07/2024, Stocks experienced a significant downturn on Wednesday, driven by disappointing reports from two major tech companies, resulting in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite recording their worst sessions since 2022. The S&P 500 dropped 2.31% to close at 5,427.13, and the Nasdaq fell 3.64% to 17,342.41, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 504.22 points, or 1.25%, ending at 39,853.87. Alphabet’s shares declined 5%, marking their steepest one-day drop since January 31, due to lower-than-expected YouTube ad revenue despite overall earnings beats. Tesla’s shares plummeted 12.3%, their worst day since 2020, following weaker-than-expected results and a 7% year-over-year drop in auto revenue. This sell-off also impacted other tech giants like Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft, which saw declines of 6.8%, 5.6%, and 3.6%, respectively. The downturn was attributed to a combination of an overbought market, high earnings expectations, and a seasonally weak period for equities. Despite the pullback, investment strategist Ross Mayfield suggests viewing this correction as a buying opportunity within a bull market. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 2.1% but has gained 7.2% for the month, with investors rotating from large-cap tech stocks to smaller, undervalued ones. While major tech companies faced setbacks, the broader earnings season has started strong, with over 25% of S&P 500 companies reporting second-quarter earnings and approximately 80% exceeding expectations.
On 26/07/2024, Five major state-owned banks in China, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and Bank of Communications, reduced deposit rates by 5 to 20 basis points to alleviate pressure on their already low profit margins. This move follows a surprise reduction in lending benchmarks earlier in the week aimed at supporting economic growth. This is the first broad deposit rate cut by Chinese banks since December 2022, marking the fourth such reduction since late 2022. With net interest margins at a record low of 1.54% as of March 2023, more banks are expected to follow suit in cutting deposit rates.
The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, driven by strong consumer spending and business investment, with inflation pressures easing, leading to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. The Commerce Department’s advance report showed that GDP growth was boosted by inventory building and increased government spending, although the housing market recovery stalled and the trade deficit widened, detracting from growth. Despite earlier concerns about the economy’s strength, this report showed resilience, aided by a robust labor market. GDP rose at a 2.8% annualized rate, significantly higher than the 1.4% in the first quarter and above the 2.0% predicted by economists.
On 31/07/2024, Japan’s central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate to “around 0.25%” from its previous range of 0% to 0.1%, the highest since 2008, and announced plans to taper its bond-buying program. Despite the hike, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) expects real interest rates to remain “significantly negative” and financial conditions to stay supportive of economic activity. The BOJ forecasts core inflation, excluding fresh food prices, to hit 2.5% by the end of the 2024 fiscal year and around 2% for the following two years. The bank plans to reduce monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to about 3 trillion yen ($19.64 billion) by early 2026, cutting around 400 billion yen per quarter, aiming to lower its total JGB holdings by 7%-8% by fiscal 2026. As of July, these holdings stood at 579 trillion yen. However, the BOJ will review the reduction plan in June 2025 and may adjust purchases if necessary. Following the announcement, the Nikkei 225 and Topix indices gained 0.28% and 0.51%, respectively, while the yen strengthened slightly to 152.72 per dollar.
Australia’s economic outlook and the political standing of the Albanese government are closely tied to the upcoming inflation figures, expected on Wednesday. Economists predict the June quarter’s annual headline consumer price index (CPI) will rise to 3.8%, up from 3.6% in the previous quarter, with core inflation steady at 4%, as per a Bloomberg survey. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) May forecasts also anticipate 3.8% for both headline and core inflation. If inflation exceeds expectations, the RBA may increase its cash rate to 4.6% next week, marking the 14th hike in the current cycle. However, if inflation aligns with or falls below expectations, calls for early interest rate cuts to prevent a recession will intensify. The RBA aims to bring inflation down to its 2-3% target range by the end of 2025. Households and businesses are concerned about further rate hikes, which have already increased monthly mortgage payments by about $240 per $100,000 borrowed since May 2022. UBS predicts a rate hike to 4.6%, noting that CPI has exceeded the RBA’s target for 12 consecutive quarters, with the June quarter set to make it 13.

Crypto news

On 01/07/2024, Bitcoin might experience a strong rebound in July after a lackluster June, where its price fell by nearly 7%. Historical data from Coinglass, which tracks Bitcoin’s monthly returns since 2013, shows that Bitcoin has often bounced back strongly after a downtrend in June, with an average gain of 7.42% in July. For seven of the last 11 July trading periods, Bitcoin posted minimum monthly gains of 8%. Memecoin analyst Murad highlighted that Bitcoin has seen minimum gains of 28% in the first few weeks of every July for the past six years. However, some analysts are cautious about July’s outlook due to factors like the significant Bitcoin sale by the German government and upcoming Mt. Gox repayments, which could put downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
Crypto executives, like Ripple’s Brad Garlinghouse, are all too familiar with the ups and downs of the industry. Despite some wins, such as the ruling that XRP sold to individuals on exchanges is not classified as a security, there have also been notable losses. This particular win for Ripple could be advantageous for Binance in its ongoing struggle with the SEC. However, it’s not all positive for Binance, as Judge Amy Berman Jackson of the US District Court for the District of Columbia has allowed most of the SEC’s claims against the exchange to proceed. The SEC alleges Binance inflated trading volumes, misused customer funds, failed to restrict US customer access, and misled investors about market surveillance controls. Additionally, the SEC claims Binance facilitated the trading of several tokens it considers unregistered securities. This follows Binance’s settlement with the DOJ and CFTC in November 2023, where the company agreed to pay $4.3 billion over illicit finance breaches.
On 02/07/2024, The Cardano Foundation, in collaboration with the Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute (CCRI), has released sustainability indicators for the Cardano network to comply with the upcoming Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation in the European Union. This report, published on July 2, adheres to MiCA’s requirements for crypto asset issuers and service providers to disclose sustainability indicators. The Cardano Foundation, which manages the ADA cryptocurrency, partnered with CCRI to ensure robust blockchain monitoring and data collection. The report highlights Cardano’s energy-efficient consensus protocol, which consumes significantly less electricity than proof-of-work protocols. It details the network’s total annualized electricity consumption, carbon footprint, and marginal power demand per transaction per second. Additionally, the report aligns with the draft regulatory technical standards from the European Securities and Markets Authority.
The United States Marshals Service (USMS) has chosen Coinbase Prime to provide custody and advanced trading services for large-cap digital assets as part of its asset forfeiture responsibilities. According to a July 1 notice, Coinbase’s institutional investing arm will manage these assets to support the federal agency, which handles crypto seized by the Department of Justice. This decision follows a 2022 audit by the Justice Department’s Office of the Inspector General, which highlighted challenges the USMS faced in managing and tracking cryptocurrency. In March, the USMS started exploring contracts for crypto custody services. Coinbase has previously worked with law enforcement to handle seized crypto assets, including those linked to FTX and Silk Road. The contract with the USMS reportedly earned Coinbase Prime over $32 million. Additionally, Coinbase is involved in ongoing litigation with the SEC, which has sparked scrutiny of the financial regulator’s enforcement methods. Coinbase has also filed lawsuits against the SEC and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation for alleged non-compliance with Freedom of Information Act requests.
On 04/07/2024, Bitcoin’s price briefly dipped to $57,874 on Coinbase on July 4, marking the first time it fell below $58,000 in over two months. Although it has since recovered slightly to $58,964, it remains down 3.4% for the week, according to TradingView. This decline was exacerbated by the liquidation of over $54.9 million in leveraged long positions, impacting traders betting on a price increase. Ether also saw significant losses, with $57.9 million in long positions wiped out ahead of the anticipated launch of several spot Ether ETFs in mid-July. Some attribute Bitcoin’s drop to the impending repayments by the defunct Mt. Gox exchange, which is set to begin distributing $8.5 billion worth of BTC to creditors. Despite this, some analysts believe the impact of these repayments may not be as severe as feared. Other cryptocurrencies also experienced sharp sell-offs, with Ether down 4.5%, briefly hitting $3,145 during a sudden dip.
On 05/07/2024, Bitcoin hit a four-month low of $53,499 on Coinbase on July 5, following news of Mt. Gox’s latest cold wallet transfer. The cryptocurrency dropped sharply around 4:19 am UTC, reaching its lowest level since late February. Data from CoinGlass revealed that cryptocurrency liquidations surged to $664.5 million over the past 24 hours, the highest in two months. Bitcoin has since recovered slightly to $54,300 but is still down approximately 7.4% in the last 24 hours. Other major cryptocurrencies, including Ether and Solana, also experienced significant drops, with ETH falling to $2,898 and SOL seeing similar declines. The total liquidations included $584 million in long positions and almost $82 million in shorts, with long Bitcoin positions accounting for $222 million. Market sentiment has also turned notably negative, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index showing a score of 29 out of 100, indicating “Fear.”
On 06/07/2024, The collapsed Japanese crypto exchange Mt. Gox transferred 47,229 Bitcoin — worth $2.71 billion at current prices — to a new wallet address in a major transaction on July 5. According to Arkham Intelligence, this movement from “cold storage” at 12:30 am UTC is part of Mt. Gox’s plan to repay creditors. The total repayment, amounting to $8.5 billion in Bitcoin, is scheduled for July. Additionally, Mt. Gox moved 1,545 BTC to the hot wallet of Bitbank, an exchange supporting the repayment process, at 4:15 am UTC. Mt. Gox trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi confirmed on June 24 that all steps for repayments had been completed. While some market commentators expressed concerns about a potential sell-off due to the large volume of Bitcoin re-entering the market, other analysts suggested the actual impact might be less severe, estimating the likely market value closer to $4.5 billion.
Russia is moving towards enabling the use of stablecoins for international trade settlements, as stated by Alexey Guznov, Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia. The proposal is under discussion, and while some regulatory and technical issues need resolution, there is optimism that the framework will soon be integrated into legislation. The Ministry of Finance has also confirmed ongoing work on this initiative, with the possibility of stablecoin usage being permanently authorized, similar to the digital financial assets (DFA) law passed in March. Key Russian figures, including Alexander Murychev from the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, have expressed support for stablecoins due to their stability and effectiveness in cross-border transactions. Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global highlighted the difficulty in tracking stablecoin transactions by third-party regulators, making them appealing for evading secondary sanctions from Western countries. Although currently used on a small scale, with instances such as Russian metal producers utilizing Tether’s USDT for payments with Chinese partners, the Bank of Russia, under Governor Elvira Nabiullina, is increasingly advocating for crypto use in international payments to circumvent Western sanctions.
Consensys, the Ethereum-focused software developer known for its MetaMask wallet, announced the acquisition of cryptocurrency security firm Wallet Guard. The entire Wallet Guard team will join Consensys within the MetaMask Product Safety Team, though financial details were not disclosed. Wallet Guard enhances scam and drainer detection through transaction validation and client-side heuristics, complementing last year’s integration of Blockaid security alerts into MetaMask. Patrick Berarducci, MetaMask and Infura lead at Consensys, highlighted MetaMask’s strong security features and its security-enhancing plugins via the Snaps extensibility platform. Consensys has been actively acquiring companies, including blockchain microstructure designer Special Mechanisms Group (SMG), blockchain notifications service HAL, and wallet firm MyCrypto.
On 08/07/2024, The German government has recently moved another 1,400 Bitcoin, valued at about $80 million at current prices, in a series of significant transfers. On July 6, 700 BTC were moved to an unknown wallet, followed by another 700 BTC the next day, bringing the total to 1,400 BTC in this new wallet according to Arkham Intelligence. This marks the 14th major transfer from government-linked BTC addresses to external wallets in the past week. Despite these moves, the government still holds a substantial 39,800 BTC, worth $2.2 billion. On July 5, lawmaker and Bitcoin activist Joana Cotar urged the government to stop selling Bitcoin rapidly and to keep it as a strategic reserve currency to protect against traditional financial risks.
North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper vetoed a bill that would ban the state from implementing a US Federal Reserve-issued central bank digital currency (CBDC), despite the bill’s near-unanimous support in both the House of Representatives and Senate. Cooper stated on June 5 that House Bill 690 was too “premature, vague, and reactionary” and emphasized that North Carolina should wait for federal standards and safeguards for digital assets before taking action. The bill had passed with a 109–4 vote in the House and a 39–5 vote in the Senate in late June, indicating that legislators could easily override the veto with a three-fifths majority in both chambers. The decision was criticized as politically motivated, with Blockware Solutions head analyst and North Carolina native Mitchell Askew expressing disappointment that Cooper did not support a law beneficial to all residents.
On 09/07/2024, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their largest net inflows in over a month, totaling $295 million amid a struggling crypto market. This was the first positive net inflow day across all funds in the last three trading weeks. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF led with $187.2 million in inflows, followed by Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund at $61.5 million. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust also saw rare positive price action, gaining $25.1 million in inflows. This marks the biggest inflow day since June 5, when ETFs attracted over $488 million in new capital. These inflows come despite broader market concerns over significant BTC sales by the German government and impending Mt. Gox creditor repayments.
The U.S. House is set to vote on a resolution to overturn President Joe Biden’s veto of a bill that aimed to repeal the SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB 121). This bulletin requires banks that custody crypto assets to record such holdings as liabilities on their balance sheets, which has deterred many banks from entering the crypto custody market. The House initially voted against SAB 121 in early May, with bipartisan support, and the Senate also voted to strike it down. To overturn the veto, a two-thirds majority is required in both houses, meaning approximately 60 additional votes are needed beyond the initial 228. This threshold is considered challenging to achieve, though the House has previously reached such a majority for a crypto-related bill, the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), which passed with bipartisan support. The upcoming vote will be closely watched by the crypto industry.
On 10/07/2024, Since July 5, Bitcoin investors have poured over $650 million into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs over three trading days. On July 9 alone, the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw significant net inflows, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust receiving $121 million and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund attracting $91 million, totaling $216.4 million for the day. The cumulative inflows for July 8 and July 5 were $294.8 million and $143.1 million, respectively. Despite these inflows, Bitcoin has struggled to surpass $60,000 since July 4, currently trading at $59,165, down nearly 15% over the past month. Analysts are hopeful that these ETFs might boost Bitcoin’s price, similar to the pre-March period when Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, driven by strong ETF flows and a “buy-the-rumor, buy-the-news” phenomenon.
On 11/07/2024, The House of Representatives is set to vote on Wednesday on whether to overturn President Biden’s veto of Congress’s repeal of the controversial Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB 121). Introduced by the SEC in 2022, SAB 121 mandates that crypto companies record customer holdings as liabilities on their balance sheets. This bulletin has faced significant criticism from both the crypto industry and political sectors, leading to its initial repeal by Congress in May. President Biden vetoed the repeal, arguing that removing SAB 121 would weaken the SEC’s regulatory capabilities and jeopardize consumer and investor well-being. To overturn the President’s veto, the House needs a two-thirds majority vote, which is considered challenging, especially with the need for Democratic support. Senator Bill Hagerty and Alexander Grieve of Paradigm have highlighted the difficulty but acknowledged the possibility given past bipartisan support, such as for the FIT-21 bill.
On 12/07/2024, The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has decided to drop its investigation into stablecoin issuer Paxos and will not file an enforcement case. This decision was communicated in a July 9 letter by Jorge Tenreiro, acting chief of the SEC’s crypto assets and cyber unit. The investigation began in February 2023 when Paxos received a Wells notice from the SEC, alleging that the Binance USD (BUSD) token was an unregistered security and that Paxos had violated federal securities laws. Paxos has consistently argued that its USD-backed stablecoins are not securities under federal law, deeming the Wells notice as unwarranted and unjustified. The SEC’s decision to cease its investigation comes after several legal setbacks for the regulator, including a July 2023 federal court ruling in SEC v. Ripple, which determined that XRP was not a security in regard to programmatic sales on digital asset exchanges. Additionally, in June 2024, the judge in the SEC’s case against Binance referenced the Ripple ruling in dismissing a claim related to BUSD. Despite this, the SEC continues to pursue enforcement actions against other crypto firms, such as Ripple, Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase. However, the SEC may need to reconsider its strategies following a Supreme Court ruling that limits courts from deferring to federal agencies in interpreting policies.
The German government, specifically the wallet labeled “German Government (BKA)” on Arkham Intelligence, has accumulated an additional 6,000 Bitcoin worth $354 million, preparing for another round of Bitcoin sell-offs. So far, 5,853.409 Bitcoin has been sent to addresses linked to exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, Flow Traders, and other unidentified addresses. This follows the recent sale attempt of approximately $342 million worth of Bitcoin, which began after 3,100 Bitcoin (worth $178 million at the time) were sold on July 9. Additionally, the address withdrew 1,700 Bitcoin worth $91.78 million from Bitstamp, indicating difficulties in off-loading on that exchange. On July 9, the holdings were around 26,000 Bitcoin (roughly $1.5 billion), but by July 10, they had decreased to approximately 18,110 Bitcoin (around $1.06 billion), reflecting a $400 million drop in value. According to Dr. Lennart Ante, CEO of Blockchain Research Lab, the funds were seized by investigators from Saxony and are believed to have originated from the illegal streaming site Movie2k. The Public Prosecutor General’s Office manages the confiscated Bitcoins, with the BKA facilitating the transactions. The proceeds go to the state budget of the Free State of Saxony, though victims of Movie2k, such as filmmakers, could potentially claim parts of the funds, pending court decisions.
On 15/07/2024, The Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC), a government financial intelligence agency, has observed an increase in the criminal use of cryptocurrencies and related services, according to its latest report on money laundering. The 2024 AUSTRAC Money Laundering National Risk Assessment highlighted methods used by criminals to launder money, noting a significant rise in the use of digital currencies, digital currency exchanges, and unregistered remittance services. Despite the global trend towards digitization, traditional channels such as cash, real estate, and luxury goods remain the preferred methods for money laundering and are rated with a “very high” risk factor. In contrast, digital currencies are rated with a “high” risk factor, though AUSTRAC expects their criminal use to grow due to the greater anonymity and transaction speed they offer. The report emphasized the need for crypto exchanges to register with AUSTRAC under the AML/CTF Act to combat this rising trend.
On 16/07/2024, The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reportedly given “preliminary approval” to at least three asset managers for their spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with trading potentially starting as early as next Tuesday. According to a July 15 Reuters report, the approval is contingent on applicants submitting final offering documents to the SEC by the end of this week. The asset managers mentioned include BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and VanEck. Fidelity, ARK 21Shares, Grayscale, Bitwise, and Invesco Galaxy are also expected to launch their Ether ETFs simultaneously. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the SEC instructed issuers to submit their final S-1 filings by July 16, including the fees for the spot Ether ETFs. The SEC is anticipated to officially approve these filings after trading hours on Monday, allowing the ETFs to begin trading on Tuesday, July 23.
On 17/07/2024, On Tuesday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their highest net inflows in over a month, totaling $422.5 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led with $260 million, marking the eighth consecutive day of positive inflows for these ETFs. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF followed with $61.1 million and $29.8 million, respectively. Other ETFs from VanEck and Invesco Galaxy also saw inflows, while those from Grayscale, Hashdex, and WisdomTree did not. BlackRock’s Bitcoin holdings have now surpassed $20 billion, bolstered by a recent purchase and a 3% price increase since Monday. Nate Geraci from The ETF Store commended BlackRock’s milestone, rejecting the idea that only “degen retail” investors would buy Bitcoin products.
On 18/07/2024, Bankrupt crypto lender BlockFi has announced that it will begin its first interim crypto distributions through Coinbase this month, as part of their previously announced partnership aimed at facilitating these distributions systematically and efficiently. In an X post, BlockFi specified that the distributions will start in July and will be processed in batches over the coming months. Eligible clients will be notified via the email associated with their BlockFi account, and the company stressed the importance of ensuring email addresses are up-to-date to avoid delays. However, non-US clients will not receive funds at this time due to regulatory requirements. BlockFi, which entered bankruptcy proceedings following FTX’s collapse in November 2022, announced in 2023 that it would shut down and refund customers’ digital currency holdings, with a withdrawal request cutoff date of April 28, 2024. The company has previously dealt with fraudulent activity involving fake emails, which misled some clients into believing their balances would be immediately withdrawn.
The German government has confirmed a multi-billion euro emergency sale of Bitcoin that began in June. An official statement from the state of Sachsen on July 17 revealed that approximately 49,858 Bitcoin were sold between June 19 and July 12, 2024, in cooperation with the Federal Criminal Police Office. The sale generated 2.6 billion euros ($2.8 billion), which are temporarily held by the Leipzig Regional Court as part of the ongoing criminal proceedings in the “Movie2k case.” The funds are not yet considered a state asset and await a court’s decision on permanent confiscation. The Dresden Public Prosecutor’s Office stated that an emergency sale is required by law when there’s a risk of value loss exceeding 10% before criminal proceedings conclude. The asset sale led to a 9.8% drop in Bitcoin’s price in June, falling from around $67,000 to $60,000, and continued to decline in July before recovering. The Bitcoin was sold in numerous small tranches over approximately three and a half weeks. The Movie2k case involved a platform streaming pirated content, where operators allegedly used ad fees and subscription revenue to buy Bitcoin, transferring nearly 50,000 Bitcoin to German authorities in January.
On 19/07/2024, Blockchain security firms report that bad actors typically convert altcoins into Ether to prepare for laundering, as Ether lacks built-in mechanisms to freeze funds. The hacker behind the $235 million exploit of the cryptocurrency exchange WazirX has converted nearly $150 million of altcoins into Ether to avoid having the funds frozen or blacklisted. Between July 18-19, this conversion included $90.2 million worth of Shiba Inu, $10.2 million in Polygon, and nearly $7.5 million in Pepe, according to blockchain analytics firm Spot On Chain. These transfers have increased the total amount of stolen funds in Ether to $201 million, up from an initial $52 million. Spot On Chain explained that ERC-20 tokens can blacklist addresses, but Ether does not have this feature. Converting to Ether quickly helps the hacker secure their funds before authorities or token issuers can take action. Ether is also easier to launder through exchanges and mixer protocols and has a more stable price. The hack caused a 7% drop in SHIB’s price, while Ether’s price fell only 0.1%. The hacker still holds around $12 million worth of Chromia, Celer Network, Frontier, and Ooki tokens, according to Spot On Chain.
Hong Kong’s largest virtual bank, ZA Bank, has announced an initiative to provide exclusive reserve bank services for stablecoin issuers, aligning with the territory’s new stablecoin licensing regime. This regulatory framework requires cryptocurrency stablecoin issuers to deposit reserve assets in local banks, enhancing market stability and security. ZA Bank, the first digital bank in Hong Kong to offer such services, marks a significant step in merging traditional banking with fintech innovation. As stablecoins grow in importance globally, robust reserve bank services by established institutions like ZA Bank are vital for their stability and reliability. According to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s latest sandbox participant list, ZA Bank’s partnership with Yuancoin, their inaugural stablecoin issuer, underscores a commitment to promoting innovation and enhancing digital asset stability. ZA Bank CEO Yao Wensong emphasized that providing banking services to stablecoin issuers demonstrates a fusion of traditional banking and fintech, exemplified by their partnership with Yuancoin.
On 20/07/2024, Bitcoin miners have minimal impact on BTC price action compared to the influence of exchanges and ETFs, according to new research from analytics firm Glassnode. In their latest “The Week Onchain” newsletter, Glassnode reveals that centralized exchanges and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs exert the most significant pressure on Bitcoin prices. As of July 2024, exchanges hold over 3 million BTC, while ETFs manage 887,000 BTC in assets. In contrast, miner-affiliated wallets account for around 705,000 BTC. Glassnode emphasizes that large coin holdings are typically managed by market-agnostic entities, such as institutional custodians and ETFs, which now form the second-largest pool of monitored Bitcoin holdings, underscoring their substantial market influence.
The United States District Court for the District of Columbia granted Binance approval to invest customer funds in US Treasury Bills through a third-party investment manager. The court’s order requires Binance to ensure these funds are not reinvested into the company or its related entities. Additionally, Binance must provide monthly reports detailing any costs associated with maintaining these investments. This decision highlights cryptocurrency’s potential to support demand for the US dollar amid de-dollarization efforts by BRICS nations. The use of collateralized stablecoins to buy and hold US debt instruments could help sustain dollar dominance and mitigate inflation caused by years of quantitative easing and poor fiscal policies.
On 22/07/2024, US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have achieved a historic milestone, collectively netting over $17 billion in inflows. Data from Farside Investors reveals that this record-breaking influx was largely driven by BlackRock’s IBIT, which amassed $18.968 billion, and Fidelity’s FBTC, which added $9.962 billion. Conversely, Grayscale’s GBTC saw a significant net outflow of $18.694 billion, indicating a shift in investor preferences. On July 17, the 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total daily net inflow of $53.35 million, marking the ninth consecutive day of positive inflows. Despite this, the figure was lower than the $422 million net inflow on July 16. BlackRock’s IBIT continued to lead with a net inflow of $110.37 million and a trading volume of $1.21 billion, while Fidelity’s FBTC also posted net inflows of $2.83 million. In contrast, Grayscale’s GBTC and Bitwise’s BITB faced net outflows. The total trade volume for US spot Bitcoin funds on July 17 was $1.79 billion, down from March’s peak daily volumes of over $8 billion. This inflow milestone reflects robust investor interest despite daily fluctuations.
On 23/07/2024, Spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have received approval to start trading in the United States on July 23. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finalized the necessary S-1 registration statements on July 22, allowing these ETFs to be listed on stock exchanges such as the Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), and the Chicago Board Options Exchange. Issuers of the approved spot Ether ETFs include BlackRock, Fidelity, 21Shares, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, VanEck, and Invesco Galaxy. This approval follows the SEC’s May 23 decision to allow rule changes enabling the listing and trading of spot Ether ETFs. The BlackRock iShares Ethereum Trust will be listed on the Nasdaq, and the Grayscale Ethereum Trust on the NYSE. Most spot Ether ETFs, excluding the Grayscale Ethereum Trust, will offer a base fee between 0.15% and 0.25%. Additionally, several issuers, including Fidelity and VanEck, will waive fees for a set period or until their ETFs reach a certain net asset threshold, with the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust waiving fees for the first six months or until it accumulates $2 billion in net assets.
The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF saw over $523 million in inflows on the same day spot Ether ETFs were approved for trading in the U.S. On July 22, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) accumulated 7,759 Bitcoin, boosting its total assets under management to 333,000 BTC, valued at around $22 billion. This marks the seventh-largest inflow day in IBIT’s history. The largest single day for inflows was March 18, with $849 million. Analysts expect spot Ether ETFs to attract 10-20% of the flows seen by Bitcoin ETFs since January. Additionally, some analysts predict a short to mid-term bullish trend for Bitcoin, partly influenced by President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race and Donald Trump’s increased election odds. Markus Thielen of 10x Research speculated that Trump might announce Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, potentially driving a significant price surge. Bryan Courchesne of DAIM echoed this, suggesting Trump might enshrine BTC as a strategic reserve asset at the event.
On 24/07/2024, Mt. Gox moved over 47,500 Bitcoin, worth nearly $3.2 billion, to two unknown addresses at 5:05 am and 6:27 am UTC. Arkham Intelligence data shows Mt. Gox’s outdated holdings were 90,344 BTC worth $6.02 billion, but its current holdings are around 42,744 BTC worth $2.85 billion. This follows a July 5 statement outlining plans for repayments to creditors, which are now underway. The Mt. Gox wallet labeled “Mt. Gox: Cold Wallet (1Jbez)” transferred 5,110 BTC, worth approximately $340 million, to an unknown wallet and Bitstamp. Of this, 2,871 BTC (around $191 million) went to an unknown address starting with 1JKMS, and $149 million worth of BTC was sent to Bitstamp. Earlier, 42,587 BTC worth $2.85 billion were transferred to another unknown address starting with 15yPU. On July 22, Mt. Gox began preparations to repay creditors through Bitstamp, indicated by onchain fund movements. Arkham Intelligence noted that Mt. Gox addresses deposited $1 to four separate Bitstamp deposit addresses, with Bitstamp being one of the five exchanges collaborating with the Mt. Gox Trustee.
United States Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of $106.6 million on their first trading day, despite significant outflows from Grayscale’s newly-converted Ethereum Trust. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) led with $266.5 million in inflows, followed by the Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) with $204 million, and the Fidelity Ethereum Fund ETF (FETH) with $71.3 million. These inflows surpassed the $484.9 million outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), which experienced 5% outflows from its previous $9 billion valuation. ETHE, launched in 2017 with a six-month lock-up period, allowed institutional ETH investments. Its conversion to a spot ETF enabled easier share sales, explaining the high initial outflows. Similarly, spot Bitcoin ETFs in January saw over $17.5 billion in outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. On the other hand, Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust attracted $15.2 million in inflows, while Franklin Templeton’s Franklin Ethereum ETF (EZET) and 21Shares’ Core Ethereum ETF (CETH) saw $13.2 million and $7.4 million in inflows, respectively. Overall, spot ETH ETFs generated $1.08 billion in trading volume on their first day, about 23% of the volume seen by Bitcoin ETFs on their debut.
On 25/07/2024, On their second day of trading, U.S.-based spot Ether ETFs experienced net outflows totaling $113.3 million, largely due to substantial withdrawals from Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust. Despite this, seven of the eight new spot Ether ETFs recorded net inflows. The Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH) and the Bitwise Ethereum ETF (BITW) led with $74.5 million and $29.6 million in net inflows, respectively. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), which had strong inflows on its first day, saw a more modest $17.4 million on the second day. The new ETFs struggled against significant outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), which saw $326.9 million in withdrawals. ETHE, launched by Grayscale in 2017 and converted to a spot Ether fund on July 22, has faced $811 million in outflows over two days, indicating that investors have sold off over 9% of its holdings following the conversion, which removed a six-month lock-up period on investments.
On 29/07/2024, At a Bitcoin conference in Nashville on July 27, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump pledged to replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler with a pro-crypto leader if elected, a move that could benefit the Web3 industry. However, transforming the U.S. into a global crypto leader requires more than just new leadership; it demands robust investor protection and regulatory oversight provided by the SEC. One immediate priority for Trump’s SEC nominee should be enabling Ether funds to participate in staking, a practice currently hindered by the Investment Company Act of 1940, which requires prompt redemption of fund shares. Given the SEC’s history of granting exemptions, the nominee should work on securing a similar carveout for spot Ethereum ETFs.
United States Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a bill proposing the creation of a “strategic Bitcoin reserve,” suggesting that the US government purchase 5% of the world’s Bitcoin supply and hold it for at least 20 years. Announced during her keynote speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, Lummis outlined that the plan aims to help reduce national debt. The government would acquire one million Bitcoin over five years, costing approximately $68.1 billion based on current prices. Lummis emphasized that this reserve would start with 210,000 Bitcoin, stored in geographically diverse vaults, and shift government holdings from US dollars to an appreciating asset. Known for her pro-crypto stance, Lummis received enthusiastic support from the conference attendees, likening the initiative to a modern-day Louisiana Purchase.
At the Bitcoin Conference 2024, Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, disclosed that over 30% of his portfolio is in Bitcoin, which he regards as “digital gold” and a hedge against the diminishing value of traditional currencies due to global monetary policies. He believes Bitcoin can outperform traditional currencies and serves as a valuable uncorrelated asset for portfolio diversification. VanEck, which manages around $100 billion and offers Bitcoin investment products, has predicted Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 due to its limited supply and rising demand. Van Eck has shifted focus to blockchain technology, highlighting the importance of solutions like Solana for their predictable transaction costs. He advises investors to understand Bitcoin’s role in a diversified portfolio and has demonstrated his belief in Bitcoin by investing over a third of his funds into it.
On 30/07/2024, Bitcoin experienced significant selling pressure after the Wall Street open on July 29, as sellers strongly rejected its rise to $70,000. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed that BTC/USD dropped by 4.5%, falling from local highs of $70,016 on Bitstamp to lows of $66,839. This decline followed a transfer involving around $2 billion worth of Bitcoin from a U.S. government-linked wallet, typically a precursor to over-the-counter auctions, as explained by trader Skew. Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments noted a recurring pattern of state-related distribution affecting Bitcoin’s price uptrend. The dip came amid mass profit-taking at high levels across order books, with price failing to sustain above $70,000 due to passive spot selling. Despite the significant liquidity above $69,000, a key psychological level, Bitcoin’s price dipped to capture liquidity below, as per CoinGlass data.
On 31/07/2024, The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has not definitively categorized Solana (SOL) as a non-security despite withdrawing its request for a court ruling on the matter in its Binance lawsuit on July 30. Jake Chervinsky, Chief Legal Officer at Variant Fund, emphasized that the SEC’s retraction does not imply that SOL is no longer considered a security. This withdrawal is part of the SEC’s amended complaint regarding “Third Party Crypto Asset Securities,” where the court is no longer asked to decide on the security status of the tokens listed. Chervinsky noted that the SEC continues to label these tokens as securities in other lawsuits, including the one against Coinbase. Legal experts Miles Jennings from a16z Crypto and Justin Slaughter from Paradigm concur, suggesting that the SEC’s decision is more a strategic litigation move than a change in stance on the tokens’ status. Jennings pointed out that Judge Amy Berman Jackson’s stringent criteria for the Howey test in the Binance case likely made it impractical for the SEC to pursue this argument, whereas Judge Katherine Polk Failla in the Coinbase case appears more receptive to the SEC’s position.

It’s kind of a weird month. I was expecting to see another downturn but for some reason, markets bounced back strong. There’s only a handful of good news this month:

Bitcoin is becoming more mainstream with Trump’s support.
Trump’s assassination attempt.
We now see CPI going down again in the US, however, it’s still running hot in Australia.
The market is now expecting a rate cut from the FED, however, history has shown that every time a rate cut happens, there’s also a recession. The market reacted badly just one day after 31/07.
We are now seeing countries cutting interest rates.
Spot ETH ETFs are finally approved and traded on the market.

Hilariously, the moment I was writing this blog (03/08/2024), the market had just witnessed a significant downturn after the FED’s meeting, due to the fear of recession, which wiped out 2.9 trillion dollars of market cap. I suspect we gonna have more downturn from here until the rate cut happens in the US. It’s even worse in Australia since CPI has not come back to the 2-3% target, and we might expect the rate cut to only happen next year, until then more pressure on mortgage holders. The cost of living is running wild now and luckily I got a 10% pay rise recently on my contract, which helps a bit with my current living standard. Bitcoin has bounced back from $55k with the recent support from Trump’s campaign. We now see that Bitcoin has become an asset and is being talked about a lot these days. There may be a chance that the government will keep Bitcoin in the treasury as a long-term asset. Spot ETH ETFs are seeing positive cash flows, which shows that there is demand for this product. With this, we may expect to see other altcoin ETFs introduced to the traditional markets in the future.

A comeback to my portfolio this month, with a gain of 6.15%. A breakdown of changes for this month’s portfolio:

Raiz – 25.55% to 30.47% (4.92%).
VDHG – 9.61% to 10.63% (1.02%).
IVV – 17.08% to 17.13% (0.05%).
SYI – 7.06% to 7.67% (0.61%).
VISM – 4.16% to 6.64% (2.48%).
A200 – 7.22% to 8.60% (1.38%).
Crypto – 38.86% to 51.76% (12.90%).

Observations:

Raiz’s portfolio once again has taken the top in growth with an impressive 4.92% gain. It has been performing well since the beginning of this year. However, one thing I have been looking at is the Raiz’s fee charged monthly. We already have a management fee charged in each ETF, so adding the cost of Raiz management fee on top, it’s just a waste, even though I can claim a tax reduction for this. I would prefer to have this money invested in my portfolio if possible, however, the convenience of Raiz and micro-investing is what attracts me in the first place, but with a large portfolio, the cost is getting larger. The estimation from the PDS shows that a portfolio of $50,000 on an Aggressive Portfolio will cost about $137.5/year. I might consider moving the money out of Raiz in the future if it becomes too large, and I would prefer my ETFs in one place if possible.
VISM has the strongest comeback this month with an increase of 2.48% since it was down last month.
Other ETFs continue to have positive returns this month. Overall, the stock market is doing well this month.
My crypto portfolio finally returns with a 12.90% increase because Bitcoin bounced back. Other altcoins are still suffering but at least Bitcoin is doing well, then my crypto portfolio is also doing well. I have also sold all the trash coins and converted them to more reliable altcoins. I took a loss but I can use this to offset other gains for my tax return this year.

My portfolio bounced back from a bad performance last month, which is a good thing to see. However, I don’t think this will last until the end of this year, since there’s still no rate cut, and fear of recession is still there. I am still waiting for a rate cut in Australia but the CPI is higher, I would expect to pay more for the rest of the year since my fixed rate is about to expire in September soon. It’s gonna be tight till the end of this year, and I would need to save as much as I can to reduce my interest payment.

A spike in spending this month has put a little pressure on spending cash on other investments or repayments. I can only put $971.23 extra into my redraw this month, which raises my current balance in the redraw to $16,761.25. 45 days left until my fixed loan is over, and I will need to talk to my broker or the lender about the loan options. I might just go with the variable rate, which is currently at 6.19%. I might expect an increase of $200 – $300/month in repayment. Definitely gonna cut down my expenses to cover more for my monthly repayment. The breakdown of this month’s interest charged:

$2,301.82 to $2,375.92– fixed rate loan
$170.57 to $173.19 – variable rate loan (minimum repayment is $276.62).

My current network is at $420,163.14. I still keep my current property value at $715,000, and I am still not sure how to value the property at this stage. It’s good to have a report for the place last month from CoreLogic but it does not include any changes done inside the house. I would probably stop thinking about the value of the house in the next couple of years since it’s not even a year since I last bought the place. The housing market is really weird compared to other markets. Let’s think less about it and get more improvement done for the place, which at least should improve the value of the property.

Some of the articles I use for the information above:

Passive Income

This month has produced about 16.029 ADA. The staking reward for AXS for this month is 0.870 AXS. BAT Reward is BAT.

To sum up:

ADA Reward – 16.029 ADA.
AXS Staking – 0.870 AXS.
BAT reward – 0.725 BAT
Dividend – None for this month.

What I have learnt

Keyword for this month – Positive thinking

I slowly getting back my performance this month after being burnt out for the last couple of months. I motivate myself to do more work for the property and do the work at a normal pace at work. I can relax more this month and get more work done on the weekends.

I did not set any goals last month, but I was able to do quite a bit of work:

Gardening – the pile of branches at the front is slowly going away now. I think it’s time for me to cut more branches and clean the front of the house.
Install a new smart lock – it takes 3-4 days to do since I did not have the tools required for the job and had to go to Bunnings a couple of times, but I finally got everything done.
Improve breakfast routine – saving money and enjoy better food.

Once again, my weight is still the same this month, around 71-72 kgs. Not sure if it’s because of the cold weather that makes me want to eat more or I just want to consume more food. I am currently trying to limit my consumption daily by not having lunch since I run out of shakes. I only had breakfast and dinner nowadays. I tend to eat instant noodles at dinner time, which I should not do in the long term, and need to eat more healthy food. At the same time, I don’t want to deliveries since it’s way too expensive these days. Inflation is really a bitch. It’s good that I have improved my breakfast routing, but still not far from perfect if I still eat instant noodles for dinner. I might need to try to buy frozen food which may be a better strategy. Let’s see.

A new plan has just popped up in my calendar. I will need to book a ticket to travel back to my country to visit my family and relatives. It’s gonna cost a lot of money for this trip so I’m starting to save more money now + keeping the monthly repayment for the mortgage. It’s gonna be a bit tough but let’s see.

Portfolio Update – July 2024

Portfolio Summary

Events & Porfolio Analysis

Passive Income

What I have learnt

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